Covid: Third wave inevitable, warns Wales' health minister

The Deltas variant is about 40% more transmissible, says the UK government

A third wave of Covid cases is likely and "the question is how big will this wave be", Wales' health minister has warned.

Eluned Morgan said she was concerned about the Delta variant spreading after a cluster of cases in Conwy county.

And she said it would be "difficult to stop the flow from England".

A surge in Covid cases in parts of the UK is being partly driven by the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant, which was identified in India.

There are 97 cases of the Delta variant in Wales, including 54 cases in Llandudno, Llandudno Junction and Penrhyn Bay.

And children at a primary school in Merthyr Tydfil have been told to stay home for another week after a visitor tested positive for the variant.

"A third wave is likely. It will be difficult to stop the flow from England, the question is how big will this wave be," said Baroness Morgan.

"We are worried that the spread of the virus is so much higher with the Delta variant and that's why the latest lifting of restrictions is in two parts.

• Indoor changes not worth the risk, FM says

• Social distancing could remain in Wales all year

• Will we need a third dose of vaccine?

"We have allowed three households to come together outdoors but we are waiting a few weeks for more data to be clearer that this variant is not spreading throughout our society and how it affects our hospitals.

"But it must be emphasised how successful the vaccination programme is and we have to learn to live with this virus and keep the NHS safe by minimising the number of patients that need hospital treatment."

More than 68% people in Wales have had a first vaccine and 37.5% have had a second, according to figures published on Friday.

Another 300,000 people could get the jab in the next two weeks, Baroness Morgan told BBC Radio Cymru.

Concerns have been raised that vaccine first doses are not as effective against the Delta variant and that people infected with it could be more likely to need hospital care.

Baroness Morgan said the Welsh government would not make it mandatory for care home and NHS staff to have the vaccine.

Latest figures show 91.8% of care home workers and 95.4% of health care staff have received one dose of the vaccine, meaning 3,107 care home workers and 6,559 NHS staff have not been vaccinated.

The UK government's Vaccines Minister Nadam Zahawi recently said it would be "irresponsible" not to consider making Covid-19 vaccination compulsory for NHS staff.

Speaking on the BBC Politics Wales programme, Baroness Morgan dismissed the idea, saying: "At this point, I think it's really important we continue with that persuasion and make the case, not just to protect themselves, but to protect the people they're working with."

She said any discussion of potentially introducing vaccine passports must not take place until every adult in the UK has been offered a jab.

It comes after former Prime Minister Tony Blair called for people who have had both Covid jabs to get extra freedoms, including the right to travel abroad more easily.

A mobile test centre has been set up in a business centre in Llandudno Junction

Speaking on Radio Wales' Sunday Supplement First Minister Mark Drakeford urged people who have not yet received a vaccination to contact their health board.

"There is evidence, not just in Wales but from elsewhere, that vaccination is not as powerful a defence against the Delta variant as it would be against the Kent variant which is why we are pressing ahead so quickly to make sure that we offer whatever protection vaccination can provide," he said.

• Tenth day of no deaths with Covid-19 in Wales

• Q&A: What are Wales' lockdown rules?

Mr Drakeford said he was prepared to take further action in Conwy if needed.

"We've always been open to taking local action where that is necessary. We're taking local action in Conwy at the moment with mobile testing facilities available, and a call to that local population to come forward and take advantage of that," he said.

"If further local actions are needed we won't hesitate to take them if we are advised they are necessary."