Covid infections estimated to have risen in Wales

ONS takes swabs from the nose and throat, with more than 12,300 people in Wales agreeing to be tested

An estimated 18,800 people have Covid-19 in Wales, according to the Office for National Statistics.

It takes thousands of swab samples each week, which can pick up people who may not know they have the virus.

It is the equivalent of one in 160 people - or 0.62% of the population - suggesting infections were rising in the week ending 24 July.

Meanwhile, the case rate in Wales fell for the ninth day in a row.

What does the swab survey tell us?

The previous week's estimate was that 14,400 people had Covid, so the latest estimate shows another rise and is the highest since mid-February.

Analysis of tests among different ages show the estimate is 3.18% of 10-year-olds and 1.9% of 20-year-olds but it drops to 0.34% of 40-year-olds and 0.15% of 60-year-olds.

Estimates are also rising for all parts of the UK, except Scotland.

However, the ONS urged caution when using the estimates, when incidence is low.

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Cases continuing to fall

When we look at results of Covid tests - from people coming forward with symptoms - then the case rate has fallen for the ninth consecutive day.

Public Health Wales (PHW) figures show:

• Wales' case rate has fallen to 152.7 cases per 100,000 people (week ending 25 July)

• The daily average has fallen to 688 cases per day. It was 839 cases a day a week ago

• Under-30s make up 55% of positive tests for the latest day - with younger people driving the recent rises in cases from the start of June

• Conwy and Flintshire have seen the most notable falls. But we can expect to see some fluctuations on a daily basis

• On Friday, 12 local authority areas in Wales were among the lowest 20 case rates in the UK

• The positivity rate - 10.7% - is showing signs of falling now. This shows the proportion of tests coming back positive

Hospital admissions down

There has been a rise in the average number of patients with a positive test in hospital in the past week (34%) but there were nearly five times the number in hospital at the same point in the second wave.

Both admissions and numbers in critical care with Covid are down on a week ago.

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Confirmed Covid-19 patients had risen to 134 on Thursday, up from 100 the week before.

Nineteen Covid patients - including six in Betsi Cadwaladr health board hospitals - were being treated in critical care or on ventilation on 29 July. This is the down on the week before.

Admissions to hospitals of confirmed and suspected Covid cases were running at a daily seven-day average of 18, compared with 20 last week and the sorts of numbers we were last seeing in late May.

There were 10 admissions, with five in Betsi Cadwaladr and four in Cardiff and Vale health boards.

Covid admissions now make up 1.7% of all hospital admissions.

Looking at this point in the second wave of the pandemic, in the autumn, we can see admissions were running much higher - an average of 94 a day.

Four more deaths reported

Four deaths were reported by PHW on Friday - two happened on Tuesday, one on Monday and one on 13 July. Two occurred in Hywel Dda health board and the others in Aneurin Bevan and Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board areas.

There have been 11 deaths in the past seven days, which is 1.6 deaths a day. Deaths at this point in the second wave, on the PHW measure alone, were 17 a day.

Meanwhile, just under 11,000 second doses of vaccine were given out on Thursday.

It takes the total number of full vaccinations to 2,047,616 - close to two-thirds of the total population.

A total of 2,293,927 people (72.4% of the population) have been given a first dose.