Covid-19 now 22nd leading cause of death in Wales

The Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board area has the highest mortality rate over the pandemic

Covid-19 was the 22nd leading cause of death in Wales in July, analysis by the Office for National Statistics shows.

The low number of deaths in June meant it had been too low to rank as a cause of death a month ago.

Dementia and Alzheimer's disease was the leading cause of death in Wales in July, followed by heart disease.

For six of the last 16 months of the pandemic, Covid-19 was the leading cause of death in Wales - the last time being in February.

Flu and pneumonia was ranked the sixth leading cause of death in July - although its mortality rate was nearly 22% lower than the five-year average.

The mortality rate from Covid was 11.6 per 100,000 people in Wales in July, the ONS says.

In Wales, 1.2% of all deaths registered in July were due to Covid; in June it had been 0.1%, the lowest proportion seen during the pandemic.

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The ONS analysis found 33 deaths were due to Covid in July - where it was the underlying cause of death.

When it was mentioned as a contributory cause on the death certificate - where Covid is said to be involved - that rises to 41.

Covid was the ninth leading cause of death in England and the north-west region had the highest mortality rate - 50.1 deaths per 100,000.

The ONS analysis also shows 259 deaths from all causes in July in Wales above normal - so-called excess deaths.

But the difference in the overall all-causes mortality rate in Wales, although higher for July 2021 compared with the same month the year before, was not statistically significant.

This shows deaths across the whole pandemic, including the start of the third wave in June and July 2021

Covid is still the biggest cause of death so far in 2021 - as it was in 2020.

The year-to-date mortality rate due to Covid is 128.9 deaths per 100,000 in Wales.

It was responsible for 6.3% of all registered deaths in March, 22.2% in February and 35.2% in January.

Deaths from all causes in care homes and people's homes were above the five-year average in July.

Are deaths really 'due to' Covid-19?

The ONS analysis found Covid-19 was the underlying cause of death in 87.3% of cases in the 17 months of the pandemic up to June 2021, where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate.

It was the underlying cause of death in 80.5% where Covid was mentioned in July.

A doctor's duties include certifying deaths, and this can include any cause in a chain of events leading up to them, including pre-existing conditions and whatever contributes medically.

It was the underlying cause of death in 6,930 of the 7,935 registered deaths involving Covid up to the end of July 2021.

The Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board area, which covers Rhondda Cynon Taf, Merthyr Tydfil and Bridgend, had the highest mortality rate across 17 months of the pandemic up to July 2021 - 234.5 deaths per 100,000 due to Covid. The Wales average was 143.8.

How does Wales compare with the rest of the UK?

On age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR), over the 17 months of the pandemic to the end of July, the mortality rate was higher in England than in Wales, both for deaths involving Covid - and deaths due to Covid.

But if you take a crude mortality rate instead - not accounting for population and age profiles - and based purely on death numbers and population figures, then Wales is higher than in England.

The ONS uses the ASMR in its analysis.

Deaths involving Covid were lower in Scotland and Northern Ireland on both measures.

Case rates are continuing to climb

On Monday, Public Health Wales confirmed two more people had died with Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to date to 5,658.The latest statistics, which cover 48 hours, show 3,247 new confirmed cases - 50% of positive tests reported were taken by those aged under 30.

Case rates continue to climb, with Wales' case rate now standing at 288.6 cases per 100,000, with a daily average of 1,300 positive tests a day, compared with 763 in the previous week.

Wales has a very similar case rate to Scotland but the case rate in north-east England has now dipped below it and Wales is also higher than London and east England.The case rate in Wales remains highest in Denbighshire with 414.9 cases per 100,000 population over the past seven days.

This is the 26th highest local authority area in the UK. Anglesey and Blaenau Gwent are among the UK's 10 lowest.

The number of people in hospital with Covid is also rising, with 249 patients - with confirmed or suspected coronavirus, or recovering - being treated on Friday, the highest figure since late April.

However the numbers are still comparatively low compared with during the second wave.

The number of patients with confirmed Covid - 176 - was the highest since 26 March. But at this point in the second wave it was seven times higher.