Covid-19: Deaths rise to 88 in latest week in Wales

Rhondda Cynon Taf saw 13 Covid deaths in the last week and it remains the county with the highest death toll during the pandemic

There were 88 deaths registered involving Covid in Wales, according to the latest weekly figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is 22 more than the previous week and the highest weekly total since early March.

The last three weeks have shown a rise in numbers and it takes the total number of deaths involving Covid in the pandemic in Wales to 8,280.

Deaths from all causes were above normal levels for a tenth week.

Where did the deaths occur?

There were 25 deaths in the Betsi Cadwaladr health board area which covers north Wales, with 18 deaths in hospital, two in people's own homes and five in care homes.

There were 21 deaths in the Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board area - its highest weekly total since mid-February. There were 17 deaths in south east Wales' Aneurin Bevan health board area.

Swansea Bay health board area had 10 deaths and there were six in west Wales' Hywel Dda health board area, while there were five in Powys and four in Cardiff and Vale' health board areas.

Ceredigion was the only Welsh county with no Covid deaths registered in the latest week, up to 24 September. Rhondda Cynon Taf had 13 which was the most.

Eleven of the deaths were in care homes, the highest weekly total since early March.

What about 'excess deaths'?

So-called excess deaths, which compare registered deaths with previous years, were above average for a tenth week in succession. They had been below average for 18 of the previous 24 weeks. In Wales there were 136 deaths above the five-year average in the latest week.

Looking at the number of deaths we would normally expect to see at this point in a typical year is seen as a reliable measure of the pandemic.

The number of deaths from all causes in Wales rose to 711 in the week ending 24 September, with 12.4% mentioning Covid on the death certificate.

Deaths were also above average in all UK nations for the week, although deaths involving Covid fell in five out of the nine English regions, with the largest decrease in south-east England.

Deaths in private homes in England and Wales were 37.3% above the five-year average in the latest week.

How many deaths in this wave?

When looking across the course of the pandemic so far, there have been 56,409 deaths from all causes in Wales, with 8,268 (14.7%) mentioning Covid-19 on the death certificate registered up to 24 September. This was 5,588 deaths above the five-year average.

When deaths registered in the following days are counted, there have been a total of 8,280 deaths involving Covid.

There have been 374 deaths so far in the third wave, an average of three deaths a day, although this has increased to an average of eight deaths a day over the last month. This included 20 deaths on 15 September - the highest daily total since 21 February.

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But this compares to 25 deaths a day on average over the whole of the second wave and more than 50 deaths a day at this same point in the second wave.

Rhondda Cynon Taf remains the county with the seventh highest crude mortality rate involving Covid across England and Wales - 384.6 deaths per 100,000 over the course of the pandemic - a total of 928 deaths.

Why are deaths measured in different ways?

Public Health Wales (PHW) provides a daily snapshot of deaths as reported by health boards - which is seen as useful in seeing very recent patterns - but the ONS figures, published slightly later, give the fuller and more reliable picture.

They include deaths in all settings - such as 445 deaths in people's own homes. Death certificates also include when Covid is not only confirmed but suspected by doctors. In around 87% of deaths involving Covid in Wales, it is also the underlying cause of death.

So there is a difference between the total number of Covid deaths by these different measures.

The latest PHW daily snapshot reports two new deaths - one in Aneurin Bevan health board area and the other in Cwm Taf Morgannwg, which occurred last Friday and Saturday. There have been 45 deaths in the seven days up to 3 October, which is an average of six deaths a day (6.4).

What else have we learned on Tuesday?

• The Wales case rate has dropped again to 530.5 cases per 100,000 - it has now been falling for a week.

• The daily average number of cases is 2,389 - down from 2,935 a week ago.

• Torfaen now has the highest case rate, at 691.8 cases per 100,000. This is the fourth highest in the UK.

• Neath Port Talbot, previously the highest, has fallen to 662.9 cases per 100,000, with big decreases in the south Wales valleys too.

• The number of hotspots in local communities is starting to fall back.

• 49% of the latest daily cases were young people aged under 19.

Fall in hospitalisations

They key indicator around Covid hospital cases points to a fall.

There were 454 patients with confirmed Covid on Monday - including 115 in beds in Cwm Taf Morgannwg and 80 in Cardiff and Vale.

This is down from 461 patients a week ago.

Including suspected Covid and recovering patients, the number across Wales stands at 626, according to Digital Health and Care Wales. That's 7.4% of all patients in hospital although down from 640 a week ago.

Hospital admissions and numbers in critical care with Covid remain stable.