Climate change: Welsh industry's 23 million tonne carbon problem

RWE's gas power station in Pembrokeshire is one of the top emitters in the UK

"Genuine courage" is needed to tackle climate change in Wales, which produces a fifth of the UK's industrial emissions, an economist has said.

Thousands of Welsh jobs rely on Tata's steelworks in Port Talbot and RWE's gas power station in Pembrokeshire, the UK's top two emitters.

Prof Calvin Jones said it was "good news" that a big difference can be made from a small number of industries.

But he said people should accept not every industry will survive.

The Cardiff University academic said: "As a teenager in the valleys, we were absolutely clear that it was unconscionable that pits should close.

"The inability to have a plan B is writ large across the shuttered shops of Maerdy, and what I don't want is for the same thing to happen in Neyland, or Port Talbot, or Broughton."

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The Welsh government said net-zero targets may be different for each organisation, and it is working with each to help them reach their goals.

Wales is among several nations who have pledged net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The UK will host the UN climate change conference, COP26, in Glasgow at the end of this month.

RWE has committed to making its Pembrokeshire operation carbon neutral by 2040, replacing natural gas burning with offshore wind and schemes to store energy when there is no wind.

But environmental campaign group Friends of the Earth Cymru said the climate emergency meant the plan for Welsh industry was "decades too late" to prevent catastrophic warming.

How is Wales contributing to climate change?

Tata Steel, in Port Talbot, is one of the UK's top two emitters of climate-warming gases - the other is also in Wales

BBC Wales analysis of official emissions data from 2019 shows major Welsh industries pumped out the equivalent of more than 23.5 million tonnes of climate-warming gases, 93% of which came from just 25 sites.

The Welsh economy is more reliant on carbon-intensive industries than the other home nations. With just 4.73% of the UK population, companies in Wales produced 18.8% of all UK carbon emissions from major industries.

RWE's gas-fired power station in Pembroke Dock, Valero's nearby oil refinery and the South Hook LNG terminal in Milford Haven produce a combined total of 7.9 million tonnes of climate-warming gases annually - a third of all carbon emissions from major industries in Wales.

The UK's highest-emitting power station at Pembroke Dock pumped out more than 4.7 million tonnes of climate-warming gases in 2019.

Operator RWE said it is also one of the most efficient gas-powered machines in Europe and is the "best option" if the UK is forced to burn fossil fuels to keep the lights on.

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But the plant manager, Richard Little, said every year the plant shut down for longer periods as more wind power came online.

He said the same trend happened right up to the closure of RWE's coal-fired power station at Aberthaw in 2019.

RWE said it had "huge ambitions" to be a part of the UK's push to build 40 gigawatts of floating offshore wind capacity, but said it was also looking into alternative measures such as battery storage, for periods of low wind.

Mr Little said: "RWE now directs more than 90% of its capital investment into renewables, hydrogen and battery storage.

"Our strategy is to build as fast as we can while we maintain plants such as Pembroke here in support of that bridge to renewable future."

Bleddyn Lake, of Friends of the Earth Cymru, said Wales was "decades too late" to prevent global warming

Bleddyn Lake, of Friends of the Earth Cymru, has called on industry to match the public sector's goal to be net-zero by 2030 and said "they need to up their game".

"Science tells us that we absolutely need to act decisively by 2030, so the time frames they are looking at are way too far into the future."

Mr Little said shortening the timescale was technically feasible, "but the sheer scale of what we need to build, 40 gigawatts, is like building the entire energy infrastructure of the UK again in floating wind in the next nine years".

He said stumbling blocks remained, including over planning permissions for offshore wind and a deal with the UK government on how it can get a return on the billions of pounds of investment needed.

"We are working closely with the UK government to try and generate a framework that can allow businesses such as ours to invest at the fastest possible rate," Mr Little added.

A Welsh government spokesperson said carbon capture and storage technology, currently under development, may be more applicable to the small number of large, high-emitting sites in Wales.

"Due to economies of scale, large firms may generally be able to adopt new low-carbon technologies and new low-carbon processes quicker and at lower cost," the spokesperson said.

"There may also be challenges if low-carbon technologies take longer to be developed and rolled out in these key, high-emitting industries."

Prof Jones said Welsh ministers had limited influence on "the big players in the carbon economy" because they all had headquarters outside Wales.

"We could decide to twist our industrial policy to a certain direction to make it supportive of a transformation in these high-carbon industries," he added.

"And they may still close because global conditions might mean that investment in Wales is just simply irrational."

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