Covid deaths and hospital admissions rise in Wales

Caerphilly had seven Covid deaths, among 20 across the Aneurin Bevan health board area

There were 81 deaths involving Covid in Wales, weekly Office for National Statistics figures show.

This was 17 more than the previous week, but numbers are lower than deaths seen in the first or second waves.

It takes the total number of registered deaths involving Covid in Wales during the pandemic to 8,432 .

Numbers in hospital with Covid have risen but remain relatively low, while the highest proportion of cases in the community remain among the under-19s.

This has been a feature of the last six weeks, with hundreds more cases being picked up following record numbers of routine lateral flow tests, especially in schools, as well as those people feeling the symptoms of Covid.

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Where have deaths occurred?

There were 20 deaths in the Aneurin Bevan health board area, including 14 in hospitals and four in care homes, in the week ending 8 October.

There were 17 deaths in the Betsi Cadwaladr health board area, 15 deaths in Swansea Bay, 14 in Cwm Taf Morgannwg, seven more in Hywel Dda, six in Cardiff and Vale and two deaths in Powys.

Ceredigion, Newport and Pembrokeshire were the only Welsh counties with no Covid deaths registered in the latest week. Swansea had 10 deaths - three of them in care homes - and there were eight deaths in Rhondda Cynon Taf.

What about 'excess deaths'?

So-called excess deaths, which compare all registered deaths with previous years, were above average for a 12th week in succession. They had been below average for 18 of the previous 24 weeks. There were 130 deaths (22.1%) above the five-year average in the latest week - more than we've seen since February.

Looking at the number of deaths we would normally expect to see at this point in a typical year is seen as a reliable measure of the pandemic.

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The number of deaths from all causes in Wales rose to 717 in the week ending 8 October, with 11.3% mentioning Covid on the death certificate.

Deaths were also above average in all UK nations for the week.

When looking across the course of the pandemic so far, there have been 57,779 deaths from all causes in Wales, with 8,413 (14.6%) mentioning Covid-19 on death certificates registered up to 8 October. This was 5,857 deaths above the five-year average.

When deaths registered in the following days are counted, there have been a total of 8,432 deaths.

This total for deaths is regarded as giving a fuller picture as it deals with all registered deaths in all settings, while Public Health Wales gives a "rapid" report of deaths each day, mainly in hospitals, when Covid has been confirmed in a laboratory.

This missed out hundreds of deaths in the first wave, including in care homes.

How do deaths compare with earlier waves?

There have been 526 deaths so far in the third wave - an average of four deaths a day since the start of June, although this has increased to an average of 10 deaths a day over the past month. This is compared to 25 deaths a day on average over the whole of the second wave.

This period included 20 deaths on both 15 and 29 September - the highest daily totals since 21 February.

The week to 17 September included the first child from Wales to die involving Covid - a girl under 14 - but we do not know the full circumstances. A boy under the age of 14 also died in the week up to 1 October.

How many people are in hospital with coronavirus?

This is now the key indicator and so far, during the third wave hospital numbers have remained relatively low, although they have been rising in recent days.

There were 520 hospital patients with confirmed Covid on Monday - the highest daily figure since the start of March. These include 112 in Cardiff and Vale. There are also 108 in beds in Cwm Taf Morgannwg, which over the past month has been the hardest-hit area, although this will include some with hospital-acquired infections.

The trend is now upwards, from 449 patients a week ago and 14% up on two weeks ago. But at this point in the second wave, it was three times higher.

Including suspected Covid and recovering patients, the number across Wales stands at 716, according to Digital Health and Care Wales. That's 8.4% of all patients in hospital.

These include 52 in critical care or on ventilation with Covid. On Sunday, there were 55, the biggest number since late February - but at the peak in January there were 150 and 164 at the first wave peak.

Covid admissions are at an average of 39 a day - slightly up on a week ago (35) - and they have been within a similar range for nearly a month. The average is currently 3.5% of all hospital admissions. It was three times the average Covid admissions at the same point in the second wave.

Bed occupancy is currently at a weekly average of 89.7% - the highest it's been during the pandemic, reflecting hospitals being busy with other patients and trying to cut into waiting lists.

More are testing positive

• The Wales case rate has risen to 585.1 cases per 100,000 (up from 515.9 cases per 100,000 a week ago)

• The daily average case rate is 2,635 a day - up from 2,324 a week ago

• The positivity rate - the proportion of tests coming back positive - is 20% for the first time since January

• Torfaen still has the largest case rate in Wales - 822.7 - which is the third highest in the UK.

• Public Health Wales said rises in Newport, Blaenau Gwent and Caerphilly are due to cases in the community, not yet through re-testing of some people in the area who were given the wrong results from a lab

• At a micro-level, there are 27 local communities with hotspots more than 1,000 cases per 100,000, showing up in Cardiff, Pembrokeshire and parts of the old Gwent valleys.

The age profile is important to look at - 48% are under-30s and 41% are under-19s. The biggest proportion is the mostly school-age young people aged 10 to 19, which represent 31% of all cases and almost 1,000 positive tests a day.

This has been a consistent factor since early September, coinciding with schools going back, but also a period when there has been more mixing, more people going back to work settings or going to events.

Meanwhile, almost 31% of 12 to 15-year-olds have now been given the Covid vaccine, Public Health Wales figures show.