Flu poses 'significant threat' in Wales this winter, officials warn

Flu could pose a "significant" threat this winter for the first time since the Covid pandemic, public health experts have warned.

There are concerns the flu season may start earlier and affect more people, as other respiratory viruses re-emerge following Covid restrictions.

Public Health Wales is urging adults and children who are eligible for a free flu jab to take up the offer.

The announcement comes as cases of flu have already been detected in Wales.

All children between two and 16 are eligible for a free flu vaccine - although only certain groups of children over five are eligible for Covid-19 boosters.

The warning comes after Australia experienced its highest number of flu cases in five years, with its season starting early.

Experts fear Wales and the UK could see similar levels this winter.

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Experts warn this could result in a flu season as severe as experienced during winter of 2017-18 - where 16,500 people were diagnosed with flu by their GP and 2,500 people needed hospital treatment.

The number of "excess" deaths recorded during that winter, compared to the average, was also the highest in around 20 years.

The 2021-22 winter period saw GP consultations well below even the low intensity flu threshold but Covid was into its third wave, with the Omicron variant dominant.

Public health experts are worried that Covid-19 will also continue to have an impact alongside flu - leading to huge pressures on the NHS.

They say it is "more important than ever" that those eligible for a free flu or Covid-19 booster get vaccinated to help prevent serious illness.

'Much more poorly'

As a specialist nurse looking after cancer patients, Rowanne is more aware than most of how dangerous flu can be - particularly for people who have weakened immune systems.

The nurse from Newport: "Treatments like chemotherapy often dampen the immune system which in those patients is weaker.

"If they're exposed to a virus or infection they can be much more poorly, so those patients are anxious that they might be more susceptible to an illness that might be life-threatening to them."

As an NHS worker, Rowanne is offered a flu jab every year and urged everybody else who's eligible, to take up their offer of a flu vaccine.

"Whether you are particularly vulnerable or not, you can still transmit the flu to somebody who is - if they're elderly, poorly or have cancer - getting a jab is also about protecting them.

"I had the flu a couple of years ago and I was really ill for a couple of weeks and I'm a fit, healthy young person. I couldn't help but think if you are more vulnerable how poorly you would be."

Rowanne is currently on maternity leave with her son

Along with her job as nurse, she also has personal reasons for getting vaccinated.

"My husband has some underlying health conditions and the treatment he has means his immune system is down compared to mine - so by getting vaccinated I'm also protecting him as well as my family."

'Busy time for NHS'

Dr Christopher Johnson, head of Public Health Wales' vaccine preventable disease programme, said: "Flu can be serious, particularly for those who are older or have a health condition and are more vulnerable to complications as a result of the flu.

"The chances of becoming seriously ill with Covid-19 or flu are greatly reduced by vaccination, as are the risks of spreading these viruses."

The GP flu consultation rate in Wales peaked at 77.4 consultations per 100,000 in January 2018, during the winter of 2017/18, but last winter it peaked no higher than 3.3 consultations per 100,000, according to Public Health Wales.

The most recent week saw it at 2.2 per 100,000, "well below" the threshold for low intensity flu, which only kicks in at 11 per 100,000.

Eluned Morgan, minister for health and social services, said: "We are encouraging everyone to get both their jabs this winter, when flu and Covid will be at their peak, to protect themselves, those around them and the NHS during what will be a busy time for healthcare in Wales."

The latest mortality figures from the Office for National Statistics show deaths from flu and pneumonia are still below average in Wales, although not as significantly so as most months in the last two years.

The ONS also said flu deaths were moving back towards pre-pandemic trends.

Flu is the seventh leading cause of death so far in 2022, with 834 deaths in Wales. The five-year average is 1,347 deaths between January and August.

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