Covid-19 infections uncertain in Wales in final survey

Lockdown was brought in three years ago this weekend

Covid-19 infections remain uncertain in Wales, according to the final Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey.

One in 40 people - 74,500 or 2.41% of the population - were estimated to have had Covid up to 14 March.

Meanwhile, on the third anniversary of the pandemic lockdown, hospital figures show four patients being primarily treated for Covid in critical care.

Death registrations involving Covid were the lowest weekly total since the summer of 2021.

ONS estimates that numbers in Wales with Covid are slightly up on the previous week (68,200), with its daily estimate also suggesting a rise.

But it is about 60% of the estimated number of infections we were seeing at this same point last year.

This will be the last of the weekly infection surveys from ONS, as part of a "living with Covid" approach.

Since the summer of 2020, the ONS - in partnership with universities, the Wellcome Trust and the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has organised a weekly nose and throat swab survey involving thousands of households across Wales.

It became the most important tool to measure the level of infections, with the end of mass testing in March 2022.

However, ONS has officially paused the survey from this week, as the UKHSA works to confirm a surveillance approach which was "proportionate and cost effective" to living with Covid.

With the closure of mass testing centres a year ago, barely 700 positive results are picked up each week from the limited testing that has taken place since. Only around 3,000 PCR tests now take place each week, around half in hospitals.

We know from Public Health Wales analysis that more than two thirds of samples analysed in Wales in the last week have been from the CH1.1.1 and XBB.1.5 sub-variants of Omicron, which has been the dominant variant for more than a year.

We still have some hospital figures and death registrations as indicators.

Of those patients with some sort of acute respiratory infection, 97% involved Covid in the latest week, with numbers with flu and RSV very low after the winter peak.

We know around 90% of patients with Covid are over 60 and over half are over 80.

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Two thirds of those testing positive for Covid in the latest week caught it while in hospital for something else.

However, Digital Health and Care Wales' snapshot figures show patients testing positive for Covid had fallen over the week. There were 466 in acute beds testing positive on Wednesday, although only 6% of these were being primarily treated for Covid.

There were only four patients in critical care or on ventilation being primarily treated for Covid.

ONS is still producing mortality figures for Covid.

In the most recent week, up to 10 March, 11 people in Wales had Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate, which is the lowest weekly total since July 2021.

All of these deaths involved the over 75s.

There were no registered deaths involving Covid across the Aneurin Bevan health board area for the first week in more than 18 months.

Covid-19 was the 12th leading cause of death in Wales in February 2023, after being the seventh leading cause in January.

During the peak of the pandemic, Covid was the leading cause of death for six months.

But while it hasn't gone away, there have been more deaths due to flu and pneumonia in Wales than due to Covid every week so far in 2023.

Three years after the start of the pandemic, the number of registered deaths where Covid was a factor, has reached 11,581 in Wales.

There is no community untouched but the impact has been greater in historically deprived parts of Wales and where there is poorer general health.

Rhondda Cynon Taf has the highest Covid mortality rate of any local council area in Wales - and one of the highest in the UK.

ONS says that up to the end of February there had been 9,597 deaths due to Covid, with the virus the underlying cause of death not just a factor.