Labour poll rating down on 2011 as assembly election nears

Welsh Labour leader Carwyn Jones says the party faces its toughest election since devolution

Labour is heading into May's assembly election with an opinion poll rating 14 points lower than in 2011.

A YouGov poll suggests the party's support has slid since a similar poll before the 2011 assembly election.

Polling experts said Labour was likely to be the biggest party after the election, but with fewer seats.

Plaid Cymru was marginally ahead of the Conservatives in second place. UKIP looks likely to win regional seats and could affect some constituency results.

On constituency votes the data, compiled for the Welsh Election Study, puts Labour on 34% (no change since February), Conservatives 22% (no change), Plaid Cymru 21% (+2), UKIP 15% (-3), the Liberal Democrats 6% (+1) and others 3% (+1).

For regional list voting, for the 20 of the 60 AMs elected using a form of proportional representation, the research has Labour on 31% (no change), Conservatives 22% (no change), Plaid Cymru 22% (+3), UKIP 14% (-4), the Liberal Democrats 5% (+1), Greens 4% (+1) and others 3% (no change).

Prof Roger Scully, of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre, said the findings pointed to Labour winning 27 out of 60 seats in the election on 5 May - down three on the 2011 election.

• The findings were based on a survey of 3,000 people conducted from 7-18 March 2016, before the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith