Leaves pile on the pressure on Arriva Trains Wales

Leaves on the line have become a standing joke aimed at the rail industry but it is no laughing matter for tens of thousands of Welsh commuters.

They cause damage to wheels and are responsible for a 50% increase in the number of Arriva Trains Wales carriages having to go in for repairs.

Less rolling stock means over-crowding and a situation where standing room becomes the routine for commuters.

It can lead to scenarios similar to the one recounted to AMs by Plaid Cymru's Adam Price from social media in which a passenger claimed to have found a seat for the first time in 11 months.

Ironically, considering the mild winter weather we are experiencing at the moment, there has been something of a perfect storm for Arriva Trains Wales.

There is the long-standing capacity problem which is the result of the original franchise agreement that effectively specified no passenger growth. The numbers are currently rising 10% year on year.

There is the added pressure of the build-up to Christmas.

And there is the problem of the leaves.

It all means that the problem has been elevated into the worst seen on Welsh trains in recent years.

That has come from passengers, rail experts like Professor Stuart Cole and Arriva Trains Wales itself.

What gives this story a real edge is that we are approaching the business end of the process to select the operator to take on the new Arriva Trains Wales franchise in October 2018.

Dealing with over-crowding will have to be top of the agenda.

Thinning out

The political dimension here is that the Welsh Government wants all of the functions surrounding rail to be devolved.

It will have the power to choose the new franchise operator but maintenance of the track is the responsibility of Network Rail, a non-devolved body.

That is the context in which Ken Skates has openly laid into Network Rail for causing the current problems, rather than criticising Arriva Trains Wales directly.

But for the here and now, which is the immediate concern for rail users, efforts are being made by the Welsh Government to find some replacement rolling stock but I am told there are limited options out there.

If that can be achieved, and the leaves inevitably start disappearing after autumn (and with it the numbers of carriages going in for repair) there may be some thinning out in the packed carriages.

But it would appear the best bet for rail users lie in the medium to long term with major new investment accompanying the new franchise to ensure the rail system keeps pace with the significant rise in new passengers every year.