The long goodbye of Carwyn Jones

Carwyn Jones revealed his departure plans at the Welsh Labour conference

So Carwyn Jones's long goodbye is underway.

The Plaid AM Dai Lloyd gave it that tag when he complained about the length of time the transition is due to take.

As things stand, we will all have to wait until December before a new first minister is in charge.

When Mark Drakeford came out of the blocks early, I wrongly thought it would trigger a process in which a full slate of candidates would be in place within a matter of days.

If that had happened there may well have been pressure on Carwyn Jones to speed up his departure.

Alps

But it has become clear that Labour backbench AMs are operating on a different time-frame.

One potential candidate told me he had spent the weekend in the Alps, no doubt trying to find some perspective away from the noise and chatter of Cardiff Bay.

That is reflective of a wider appetite among Labour AMs to take their time before rushing to nominate any more preferred candidates.

Two have even suggested to me we may be entering the summer recess without knowing exactly who will be going for the top job.

"There's no rush" is a familiar phrase, but if they wait too long then Mark Drakeford may have built up such a head of steam he could be unstoppable by the time other hats are thrown into the ring.

Caretaker

The flip side is the possibility that the finance secretary has gone too early and his campaign will tire by the time we get to the business end of the contest in the autumn.

His apparent strength could also be his weakness.

By setting out a time-frame of what we presume will be around five years, he risks being seen as a caretaker but it also sets out a period which people can get their heads around.

In other words, a safe pair of hands after a particularly bruising few months.

The possibility of this being a weakness is largely down to the strength of the other leadership bids, and whether they can offer a credible alternative narrative of someone not being a bridge to the future but the future itself.

Relaxed

There have been calls from the likes of Peter Hain for radical change.

This will inevitably jar with what we saw from a remarkably relaxed Carwyn Jones on the weekend in his Sunday Politics Wales interview with my colleague Arwyn Jones, in which he not only set out a staunch defence of his record but struggled to find anything over more than eight years which did not go as well as he would have liked.

I am not expecting anyone to publicly criticise the first minister from within Labour ranks in the leadership contest, but if there is a change candidate who generates momentum then there may well have to be some reassessment of this record.

And then there are the rules of the contest itself. All eyes will now be on a meeting of the Welsh executive committee within the next few weeks.

Any cursory look at the membership of what is known as the WEC within Welsh Labour tells you how difficult it is for one member one vote supporters to beat those who want the electoral college to remain.

Long grass

Omov supporters believe their greatest chance is for the WEC to pass this on to a special conference to make the call.

Union leaders believe the best way of preserving their voice is to highlight what many believe is the anomaly of the weighting giving to the 58 Labour politicians (AMs, MPs and MEPs), who make up a third of the electoral college.

This is, of course, the long grass of the internal workings of the Labour Party.

But it is not just a leader of Welsh Labour being elected later this year, it is also a new first minister and that is why we should all sit up and take notice of the way this contest is conducted.