Coronavirus tracing in Wales could need 30,000 tests a day - report

Around 30,000 coronavirus tests a day could be needed if the Welsh NHS begins testing everyone with symptoms, a leaked report says.

The Welsh Government wants a system of surveillance to help ease Wales out of lockdown.

But a Public Health Wales plan has revealed the potential scale of the task ahead.

Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth said the document contains "as many questions as answers".

"This is a draft overarching strategy and we are working with our partners this week on the detailed delivery plan," a Welsh Government spokesman said.

Ministers want to track and trace infections as a way to ease the stay-at-home restrictions, and have said that a large increase in tests would be needed.

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A draft plan has been drawn up on how that could work - saying that as many as 94 teams across the country would be required with a total workforce of up-to 1,600.

It says if all "symptomatic members of the population" were to be tested, this would generate a demand of "approximately 30,000 tests" per day.

Current testing capacity is 2,100 a day.

"Until effective coronavirus vaccines or drugs are available, testing will remain a powerful way to monitor and manage the pandemic," the report said.

But it adds that the "global demand for testing resources during the Covid pandemic has put significant strain on traditional supply chains and there is continuing uncertainty about both availability and delivery timelines for equipment, reagents and test kits".

Ministers have discussed using apps to help trace the virus

Earlier on Monday First Minister Mark Drakeford said the Welsh Government was considering using a experimental app, being trailed in the Isle of Wight, as part of the project.

The app would assist the process of contact tracing by using Bluetooth signals on smartphones.

But the process would also need people. The report says the contact tracing operation will be led by 94 teams spread across the country, with each team responsible for an area with a population of roughly 30,000.

Each of the 94 teams will have between 15 to 17 members amounting to a total workforce of 1,400 to 1,600 full time employees on duty across the country seven days per week.

Public Health Wales will also provide a "National Contact Centre", which will provide extra support with the contact tracing effort via telephone.

'No clear commitment'

Plaid Cymru health spokesman Rhun ap Iorwerth said: "This outline document contains as many questions as answers.

"Worryingly, there is no clear commitment let alone a coherent strategy to drive transmission rates down to as close to zero as possible, in line with the 'disease elimination' strategy followed successfully by the likes of South Korea and New Zealand."

Angela Burns, Welsh Conservative health spokeswoman, said: "The Welsh Government scrapped their testing targets when they realised they couldn't hit them and are being coy with joining the UK's track and tracing app.

"How is Wales meant to be able to come out of the restrictions when there's this mammoth testing target the Welsh Government needs to hit."

First Minister Mark Drakeford said the Welsh Government is looking at an experimental app

The report indicates many workers will come from councils and local health boards.

"A workforce of this size cannot be met from the health protection resources within Public Health Wales or Local Government," the document says.

"However, the nature of the patient identifiable information collected and distributed will mean that the resource will have to come from redeployment of existing public sector workers."

It suggests that non-specialist workers would be needed to free up resources in Environmental Health and Public Health Wales, allowing them to focus on more "complex tasks and outbreaks".

The report says the process of recruitment needs to start on Thursday.

'60-70% population complying with social distancing'

The document, dated last Wednesday, said that the UK government's scientific advisory group SAGE believes the reproduction rate in Wales is 0.9.

It estimated that 60-70% of the population is complying with social distancing, estimating that by the end of May this year there will be around 1000 to 1,500 cases in Wales.

Under the contact system the plan estimates that each day, between 7,500 and 30,000 new contacts will be identified.

About 105,000 and 400,000 cases at any one time could need to be tracked.

Analysis by Felicity Evans, BBC Wales political editor

The challenge for the Welsh Government is huge. They may have to find the daily capacity for tens of thousands of tests from a base of just 2,100.

They have to do this at a time when the supply chains for the chemicals and equipment are under huge strain.

They also have to recruit staff to run a complex tracking and tracing system that is being set up in very short order.

The first minister has talked about the importance of Welsh citizens having confidence in the process of easing the Coronavirus restrictions.

Making this proposed new system work will be key to achieving that.

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