Boundaries review on MPs leaves five battles looming

If you find map-reading stressful, spare a thought for Wales' MPs - they've just been given one that could cost them their jobs.

A plan to redraw Wales' Westminster constituencies, published last Wednesday, would see the number of MPs fall from 40 to 32, leaving the political parties scratching their heads over how to make the numbers add up without too many nasty arguments.

The final jigsaw when assembled could look different from the current draft - there are three consultations to go before the map is set in stone.

But here are five of the significant questions that might crop up in the months and years ahead.

Blue-on-blue in Pembrokeshire?

The most high-profile spot on the map where senior Conservative figures are involved in a potential fight for a seat is in west Wales.

Simon Hart is Welsh Secretary and serves the Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire seat which, under the plans, would be redrawn to include parts of Preseli Pembrokeshire.

The latter is the current home of Welsh Affairs Committee chairman and former cabinet minister, Stephen Crabb.

Watch out for a possible Hart/Crabb tussle for the right to run in the rebranded Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat, rather than the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency, which is not such an attractive Tory prospect.

Simon Hart's seat is being redrawn

Who runs for Plaid Cymru in Dwyfor Meirionnydd if Arfon vanishes?

The disappearance of the Arfon seat in north-west Wales, held by Plaid Cymru's Hywel Williams, could prompt a question over whether he or the party's Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts get reselected there.

Arfon is mainland Great Britain's smallest constituency and is split up under the new proposals.

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Part of the seat - including Caernarfon - will be swallowed by a larger version of Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

Liz Saville Roberts, the party's Westminster leader, was first elected in 2015 after predecessor Elfyn Llwyd stood down. Hywel Williams has represented Arfon, which includes the city of Bangor, since 2010.

Would Carolyn Harris be selected to stay in the nearby Swansea East and Neath seat

Labour Battle Royale in the valleys?

The south Wales valleys is where this game of musical chairs is most brutal, with a clutch of Labour MPs potentially losing out.

The proposed changes see boundaries shift at the northern end of the region, with Cynon Valley split up between Merthyr Tydfil and Pontypridd, and Blaenau Gwent absorbing the Rhymney Valley.

Parts of Caerphilly would also merge into the new Newport West and Caerphilly seat. Much of Neath would become part of a new Swansea east and Neath constituency, while another chunk would join the new version of Brecon and Radnor.

Would current Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David be selected to fight Newport West and Caerphilly, or might it be Ruth Jones, who represents Newport West at Westminster now?

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Does Christina Rees, Neath's MP, run for the new Swansea East and Neath or does Welsh Labour's deputy leader and Swansea East's Carolyn Harris go for it?

Then there is Gerald Jones, Labour's Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney member of the Commons - would he stand for Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, or could it be the current Cynon Valley MP Beth Winter gets to run?

If the south Wales valleys becomes an internal party battlefield, it could be hugely disruptive for Labour.

David Cameron had proposed major reforms to the number of MPs in the UK, but they never came to fruition

Will it actually happen?

We have been here before - no boundary review has been implemented for a while, with the last one never seeing the light of day.

David Cameron's radical plan to cut the number of MPs and equalise constituencies sat on a shelf for years until Theresa May binned it.

The political calculus has changed since the 2019 general election, with the governing party potentially coming under pressure from the changes.

It may be easier for the government to ditch the scheme or somehow delay it, rather than risk damaging internal rows.

The Senedd has 60 elected members but some want more

Could it pave the way for more Senedd members?

A larger Senedd has been the holy grail of the pro-devolution camp in Wales for ages.

They say that, with the law and tax making powers the Senedd and the Welsh government now have, 60 Members of the Senedd is simply too few.

But ever since the 2009 expenses scandal, politicians have been reluctant to make the case for spending more money on themselves.

First Minister Mark Drakeford has indicated he would like to push ahead with reforming the way the Welsh Parliament is elected.

Does losing MPs in Westminster make the case for a bigger Welsh Parliament easier for him?

Maybe, but it tends to be an uphill battle arguing for more politicians, whatever the circumstances.

Finally, if these big changes to the way Wales' looks at Westminster do happen, we might just see some of the current crop of Welsh MPs who find themselves surplus to requirements making their way to that other parliament at the other end of the M4, in Cardiff.

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