What a picture says about power in North Korea

Kim Jong-un presided over solemn memorials to mark the second anniversary of his father's death on Monday. One particular snapshot can provide us with insight into the leadership in the wake of the recent brutal purge of his uncle, Chang Song-thaek, explains North Korea leadership specialist Michael Madden.

Early on 17 December, North Korea's elite paid homage at the Kumsusan mausoleum where the embalmed bodies of former leader Kim Jong-il and his father, the founder of the nation, Kim Il-sung lie.

They did exactly the same a year ago - but it was a different group of people. Comparing the line-up this year with the photograph taken last year can give us some insight into the power play in this secretive nation.

Conclusions are difficult to reach because the regime is both opaque and unpredictable, but there are possible clues about the future direction of Kim Jong-un and the men who surround him.

The images may look virtually identical but there are many hidden signs of subtle but potentially significant changes among North Korea's top leaders.

Power to the right?

There are several new faces in the front row and more military uniforms. The military and security staff are on Kim Jong-un's right and the party people are on the left. This represents a reversal from last year.

Some defector sources say that if you are on the right you are in a more valued position than if you are on the left. It is hard to say how true that is, but there is definitely an argument current among some that those on the Supreme Leader's right wield greater power.

The most notable absence is what has dominated headlines - which is that of Chang Song-thaek, recently executed in an unprecedented public purge.

Chang's widow Kim Kyong-hui is also missing from the picture, but few expected her to be present and it is difficult to know what to read into this. Some may see it as a sign she is out of favour but others have suggested that she may have even played a role in the purge.

People that Chang had social ties with and associates with a similar reformist outlook were present - one is the current prime minister, Pak Pong-ju. He seems to have come to the fore in the last year and occupies a prominent position in the line-up.

Two new names in 2013 stand out: General Ri Yong-kil and Defence Minister Jang Jong-nam - powerful figures to watch.

Ruthless rising star

China is the other silent presence in this picture. The men in civilian suits standing on the right of the picture - Kim Ki-nam and Choe Tae-bok - are all figures with ties in China and interests in foreign relations. These were people present in 2012 and so their inclusion projects a message of continuity - even if just cosmetic.

Another interesting figure obscured on the left is General Kim Won-hong but he is not to be overlooked. He runs the secret police, thought to be very powerful and whose star is rapidly rising.

He is likely to have played a key role in Chang Song-thaek's demise. In 2012 he was in the second row - he has now moved up to the front row. We may well see more of him.

Three members of the so-called gang of seven - the old guard who accompanied the hearse of Kim Jong-il and were thought to be appointed to oversee the transition of power - are also visible at the front.

Michael Madden runs the North Korea leadership watch website.