Irish lottery: When will the jackpot be won again?

The number of balls used in the Irish lottery has increased from 36, in 1988, to 47

Could an end finally be in sight for the Republic of Ireland's long-running lottery saga?

The country's jackpot has not been won for more than six months with the top prize last being won on 5 June.

It is a record streak - albeit not a great one for punters - that has spanned 55 consecutive draws and led to the top prize rising to a now-capped €19m (£16.1m).

A winning ticket for Saturday night's draw would end that unlucky streak.

But if the right balls fail to drop, the wheels are in motion to ensure the jackpot is won again soon and end the controversy sparked by the winless streak.

On Wednesday, the lottery operator Premier Lotteries Ireland and the regulator of the National Lottery appeared before the Irish parliament's Finance Committee.

Premier Lotteries chief executive Andrew Algeo told the committee that approval to introduce a must-win game is being sought.

That proposal, submitted this month, is under consideration by the regulator Carol Boate.

Andrew Algeo says the long wait for a jackpot winner is "highly unusual"

She told the committee: "I want to make sure it is correctly and appropriately described in the game rules and we also check for the impact on the risk of the game to players."

But it is understood the must-win proposal could operate in a similar way to how it works in the UK, where if the jackpot is not won over five consecutive draws the next tier of winners share the lotto prize.

Ms Boate said the current run is "unusual in the history of the game but it is not unusual in the history of lotteries."

She added: "Statistically unlikely events are part of the nature of games of chance and lotteries.

"I can assure the public that the Lotto game is operating in line with the game rules and there are no regulatory issues."

'The balls have no idea there hasn't been a winner'

Prof Brien Nolan from Dublin City University's School of Mathematical Sciences reckons the consecutive run of jackpot-less draws is about an 850/1 chance.

"There's been a remarkable sequence of bad luck - I think essentially that's all it is, there's nothing more to it," he told BBC News NI.

It is a sequence further compounded by "the fact that when the draw takes place those balls have no idea there hasn't been a jackpot winner for the last six months".

Prof Brien Nolan said previous results do not change the odds of a jackpot win

The odds of an individual winning the lottery, or of the jackpot being won in a specific draw, do not change, Prof Nolan said.

"Choosing six balls from 47, there are 10.7 million possibilities, so every line you buy on a lotto ticket, and of course you are buying them two at a time, there is a one in 10.7 million chance of winning the jackpot," he said.

"For the jackpot, there's about a 12% chance of it being won in every draw - that might bobble up and down, between 12 and 18%, dependent on how many tickets are sold for that draw.

"What happened yesterday or last week or over the last six months is irrelevant."

• What do lottery winners spend their money on?

• 'Shergar Squid Game win more likely' than lotto win

When launched in 1988, lottery players in Ireland had 36 numbers from which to choose.

That number has been raised over the years and players now choose from 47 numbers.

The current Irish jackpot winless streak has sparked much debate.

In November, Fine Gael TD Bernard Durkan said the lottery-playing public were losing faith that the multi-million euros top prize was winnable.

He called for a "full investigation and audit" into how the top prize had not been won and suggested removing a couple of balls from the draw would increase the likelihood of a win.

Mr Durkan said the chances of winning seemed "so remote that punters must be thinking Shergar would have a better chance at winning Squid Game".

In the UK, a must-be-won game is held when the jackpot is not won over five consecutive draws

He has welcomed the prospect of a must-win version of the game.

"But we really need to see more detail in order to fully restore public confidence," he said.

"Questions remain around how this new design will operate. When will it kick in? Is it a long-term solution or a once-off answer to the current rollover?"

He said a system that allows more than 50 consecutive rollovers is "flawed".

"We need to see a long-term plan to ensure this does not continue into the future," he added.

A spokesman for the National Lottery said that as the jackpot is now capped, the funds "that would usually go to the jackpot are instead distributed to the next prize tier at which there is a winner".

That means 218 lotto players who matched five balls, or five balls and the bonus number, "have shared over €18m (£15.3m) in additional prize money due to the jackpot prize roll down".

There have been five jackpot wins in Ireland in 2021, compared with 11 last year.

The previous longest run in which the jackpot was not won spanned 22 draws and ended in April this year when a family syndicate in County Kilkenny won €12.7m (£10.8m).