Ukraine: Satellite images show Russian military activity
- Published
The latest satellite images provided by the US space technology company Maxar show that wide-scale Russian military activity persists close to Ukraine's borders, despite recent Russian claims of de-escalation and withdrawal.
Taken in mid-February, they illustrate that Ukraine remains surrounded on three sides - on its borders with both Russia and Belarus - by Russian military hardware and troop concentrations.
Russian troop activity
Of particular concern is the presence of a new field hospital, at some distance to the rear at the Osipovichi training area in north-western Belarus.
While this could be a legitimate part of any large scale field exercise it could also be an indication of expected battle casualties from an imminent conflict.
Other troop concentrations and activity are considerably closer to Ukraine's borders.
A military pontoon bridge over the Pripyat river was pictured on 15 February.
It is less than less than 4 miles (6km) from Belarus's border with Ukraine.
Analysts at London-based McKenzie Intelligence Services have highlighted the large staging area on the right bank of the river as an indicator of possible intent to move large numbers of vehicles.
Some reports have suggested that the pontoon may have been removed.
Another image is of self-propelled artillery, or large calibre guns mounted on a tank chassis, arrayed at Brestsky, which is about 30 miles (50km) from the border.
A newly arrived unit of 20 anti-tank attack helicopters was pictured at Zyabrovka airfield, 19 miles (30km) from the border.
McKenzie Intelligence analysts say that there are 12 probable Russian Hokum, and five probable Hind or Mi-28 Havoc helicopters.
It is important to remember that Russia's current military presence of around 30,000 troops in Belarus, while alarming to both Ukraine and NATO, are part of joint, scheduled exercises that are due to conclude on February 20.
So a key test of Moscow's intentions will come after that date when satellite images will reveal if the bulk of Russian forces there have remained or departed.
What these images do not tell us
There is nothing in these images that definitively proves that Russia is about to invade Ukraine.
Russia continues to insists that this is not its intention and that any such suggestion is part of western propaganda.
But NATO defence chiefs believe Russia now has sufficient forces in place around Ukraine to execute an invasion should President Putin give the order.
The scale, magnitude and configuration of Russia's deployment close to Ukraine's borders is unprecedented with, for example, air defence units brought in from thousands of miles away in the east of Siberia.
Under Putin's leadership Russia's military has undergone a dramatic transformation from the dark days of the 1990's following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Two things have happened that have made Russia's military a force to be reckoned with.
Firstly, huge amounts of state money have been invested in modernising and upgrading troops, equipment, weapons, cyber and logistics - from the latest versions of cyber attacks to reorganising combat units into compact 'Tactical Battalion Groups' of around 800 troops supported by tanks, artillery and other arms.
Secondly, Russian commanders and planners have spent the last seven years gaining valuable combat experience in Syria and eastern Ukraine. Their weapons have been tested on the battlefield and Russian commanders have learnt from earlier mistakes.
Taken together, western analysts believe Moscow could, if it chose, maintain a sizable and threatening military presence around Ukraine's borders for weeks, if not months, to come.