Putin is ready to take advantage of Israel-Gaza war, says Steve Rosenberg

Vladimir PutinReuters
By Steve Rosenberg
Russia Editor

It's tempting to view Vladimir Putin as a James Bond-style villain sitting at a giant control panel, in a mountain hideout, sowing chaos around the world.

He presses one button and there's unrest in the Balkans.

He presses another and the Middle East explodes.

It's tempting… but probably inaccurate. It exaggerates the Kremlin leader's global influence.

Yes, Russia has ties to Hamas and has become a close ally of Iran. According to the US, Moscow and Teheran now have a fully-fledged defence partnership.

But that doesn't mean Moscow had direct involvement in, or prior knowledge of the Hamas attack on Israel.

"We do not believe that Russia was involved in any way," Israel's ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Ben Zvi, told the Kommersant newspaper this week, adding that it was "complete nonsense" to suggest there was a Russian connection to the atrocities committed by Hamas in Israel.

"I haven't seen any evidence of direct Russian weapons supplies to Hamas, or of the Russian military training Hamas operatives," says Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russia and the Middle East at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

"It's true that Russia has a long relationship with Hamas. Russia never declared Hamas a terrorist organisation. Hamas delegations were in Moscow last year and this year.

"But I would not infer from that that there has been extensive military support. Even though we know that Russian-made systems made their way into the Gaza strip, probably via the Sinai [in Egypt] and with Iranian assistance."

In other words, President Putin didn't press a button marked "Middle East war".

But is he ready to take advantage?

Absolutely. And here's how.

Distraction from Ukraine

With the upsurge in violence in the Middle East dominating the international news agenda, Moscow is counting on dramatic headlines from Israel to divert attention from Russia's war in Ukraine.

But this is about more than just changing the news cycle. The Russian authorities are also hoping that, as a result of the situation in the Middle East, some Western arms supplies to Ukraine will be redirected to Israel.

"I believe this crisis will directly influence the course of the special military operation [in Ukraine]," Russian diplomat Konstantin Gavrilov told the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper.

"Ukraine's sponsors will be distracted by the conflict in Israel. That doesn't mean that the West will abandon Ukrainians. But the amount of military aid will go down….and the course of the operation may turn sharply in [Russia's] favour."

Wishful thinking on Russia's part? Quite possibly.

"We can and will stand by Israel, even as we stand by Ukraine," said US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at a meeting of Nato defence ministers.

But a protracted conflict in the Middle East will test America's capacity to simultaneously support two allies in two separate wars.

Russia the mediator?

Russia is trying to boost its role in the Middle East by styling itself as a potential peacemaker.

It has been in that role before, joining in past international efforts to end the conflict in the region.

"Russia can and will play a role in the resolution [of the conflict]," said President Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov. "We're maintaining contacts with sides in the conflict."

On a visit to Moscow this week, Iraq's prime minister called on President Putin to "announce an initiative for a real ceasefire" in the region.

Russia the peacemaker? That's a hard sell.

After all, this is the country that launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbour. After nearly 20 months, Russia's war in Ukraine has caused death and destruction on a scale that has shocked the world.

Plus, saying you "can and will play a role" in achieving peace doesn't guarantee that those involved in the conflict will accept you as a mediator.

Reuters

Russia says it will play a role in the resolution of the conflict

Moscow has long had an interest in the Middle East, with the Soviet Union adopting a pro-Arab position as Israel forged a close bond with the US. For years state-sponsored antisemitism was a feature of Soviet life.

After the break-up of the Soviet empire Russia's relations with Israel improved, partly because of an influx of more than a million Jews to Israel from former Soviet republics.

But more recently Vladimir Putin's Russia has drawn closer to Israel's enemies, particularly Iran - putting Russian-Israeli relations under strain.

Denouncing America

The Kremlin spies an opportunity here to do what it already does plenty of - blaming America.

Since the Hamas attack on Israel, Vladimir Putin's central message has been that "this is an example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East".

It fits the general pattern of Moscow attacking what it calls "US hegemony".

And framing America as the central culprit in the Middle East is the Kremlin's way of bolstering Russia's standing in the region at Washington's expense.

So far I've talked about the potential benefits for Russia from events in the Middle East. But there are dangers, too.

"Carefully calibrated instability is what serves Russia best," believes Hanna Notte.

"If this crisis diverts attention from Ukraine - and there's a real risk of that, given the importance of Israel in the US domestic political context - yes, Russia could be a short-term beneficiary."

But Russia would not benefit from a war that draws in the broader region, including Iran which provides weapons and finance to Hamas, Ms Notte says.

"Russia doesn't want a full-blown war between Israel and Iran. If things drift towards that, and it becomes clear America comes down hard on Israel's side, I think Russia will see no choice but to drift further to the Iranian side. I'm not sure that it wants to.

"I think Putin still values his ties with Israel. I don't think Russian diplomacy wants to move into that space where they have to pick sides. But the more this conflict escalates, the more they might feel the pressure."

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