Guernsey population: Number of people aged over 85 to double by 2045

The population in Guernsey is predicted to fall after 2027

The number of people living in Guernsey aged 85 and over likely is to double by 2045, according to the latest States figures.

The data is based on average trends with an annual net immigration of 100 people per year.

Like the majority of developed countries, the island has an aging population.

The report estimates there were 63,155 people living in the island in March 2020.

The population is expected to reach 63,400 by 2027, after which it will begin to fall to below 60,000 by 2055 and an estimated 52,700 by 2080.

Throughout this period the population between compulsory school age and state pension age - which is due to have risen to 70 by 2049 - is expected to decline and the workforce to fall by 0.4% per year on average.

The States figures have estimated an average level of annual net migration between 200 and 300 people would be needed to maintain the size of the workforce at its current level.

The annual Guernsey population projection bulletin, which provides 60-year forecasts for the total population, also says the number of people aged 85 and over may treble by 2085.

Plus, the number of people above the state pension age is likely to increase throughout the period.

Officials use these projections to influence policy development and government decision-making.

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