Is it time for Hillary Clinton to panic?
- Published
Benghazi! Falling approval ratings! Email-gate! Lately the headlines have been full of gloom for Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton, prompting a spate of columns and commentary about whether her campaign is Officially in Trouble.
"Both her and her campaign are in trouble," pollster John Zogby said, external in a recent television interview. "She is frankly sinking like a rock."
But is it really so? Here are some reasons why - and why not - the former secretary of state should be concerned about her presidential prospects.
Yes. Email-gate is a danger
Although the New York Times's steady retreat, external from its Friday article on a possible Justice Department investigation into Mrs Clinton's controversial email server makes Dunkirk look like Waterloo, the threat to the Clinton campaign is very much real.
Congressman Trey Gowdy, head of the House committee looking into the 2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, is proving a dogged investigator who knows how to use the press to advance his cause. And the more eyes that start peering into Mrs Clinton's affairs - whether the Justice Department labels the inquiry "criminal" or not - the greater the chance some new scandal could be unearthed.
Remember, Monica Lewinsky would be just another former White House intern were it not for the existence of a long-running Whitewater independent counsel investigation.
No. Hillary is the Teflon candidate
Mrs Clinton is a survivor. She has been in politics for decades and has withstood everything the Republicans have thrown at her. They've peered into her law firm billing records, commodity futures trades, real estate deals and White House personnel moves. They've exposed her husband's extra-marital affairs and tried to remove him from the presidency. All the while, she's endured.
As the Hillary Clinton character on a Saturday Night Live skit memorably said, external regarding the email story: "Nice try… This is not how Hillary Clinton goes down."
Yes. Swing state trouble
A recent Quinnipiac University poll, external conducted in key 2016 battleground states shows Mrs Clinton trailing Republican presidential candidates Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker in Virginia, Iowa and Colorado by margins ranging from 2% to 8%.
"Hillary Clinton is still on track to get the nomination in early states… but the populace in general simply Does Not Like Her," gloats, external Moe Lane for the conservative RedState blog.
Barack Obama carried all three states in both 2008 and 2012 - and they're considered three of the most vital pieces of any 2016 electoral strategy for the former secretary of state.
No. The playing field is still tilted
A bit of trouble in one poll conducted in three states that won't be a real concern for 15 months could be a sign of weakness or just an isolated bit of statistical noise.
Add to that the fact that even if Mrs Clinton loses Virginia, Iowa and Colorado, she can still almost certainly get elected if she wins either Ohio or Florida - both carried twice by Mr Obama.
The bottom line is that the current electoral map favours the Democrats. They just have a bigger built-in block of "safe" states in their column than the Republicans.
"Republicans are likely to have more and better options on their map to get to 270 in 2016 than they did against Obama in either 2008 and 2012," writes, external the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza. "But that doesn't mean the Electoral College playing field starts out equal heading into this presidential race. It doesn't. Democrats start with an edge."
Yes. It's those unfavourability numbers
More disturbing for Clinton backers than the swing state polling is their candidate's steady decline in overall favourability and particularly in ratings for "trustworthiness" and "honesty".
In Colorado, for instance, 62% of respondents said Mrs Clinton was neither honest nor trustworthy. That number was 59% in Iowa and 55% in Virginia.
Nationally, Mrs Clinton's approval rating has gone net negative for the first time in a decade. According to a recent CNN/ORC poll, external, 45% of respondents gave her a favourable rating, while 48% were negative.
Shortly after Mrs Clinton announced her candidacy, the Brooklyn neighbourhood around her campaign headquarters was plastered, external with stickers labelling her "entitled", "ambitious" and "secretive". It's been a line of attack for Republicans ever since, and - thanks, in part, to questions over her email set-up and Clinton foundation fundraising methods - the shots may be having an effect.
No. Reversion to mean
Mrs Clinton's approval rating was unnaturally high for a long time, as she floated above the political fray as secretary of state and a private citizen. Democrats loved her. Republicans generally liked her - or at least liked pointing out that she would have been better as president than Mr Obama.
As soon as Mrs Clinton announced her candidacy, however, those numbers were destined to drop precipitously. According to that CNN/ORC poll, 82% of Republicans now view her unfavourably.
It might make more sense, then, to compare Mrs Clinton to Mr Obama - who could be considered the benchmark Democrat. His approval stands at 49%, just a hair above Mrs Clinton's 45%, which could be attributed to margin of error or liberals who are die-hard supporters of Mrs Clinton's chief primary opponent, Bernie Sanders.
Oh, and getting back to that CNN/ORC poll, the public doesn't seem to think highly of any of the presidential candidates. Mr Bush was underwater by an even larger margin (10%). Scott Walker, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz were all net negative.
Yes. The enthusiasm gap
Speaking of Mr Sanders, the Vermont senator has drawn tens of thousands of supporters to his campaign events in Wisconsin and Arizona. Mrs Clinton has come nowhere near approaching those numbers - or the level of excitement that the Sanders backers are demonstrating online and on the campaign trail.
While Mr Sanders still trails Mrs Clinton in polls, he's making some gains in Iowa and New Hampshire. A better-than-expected showing in one of those early-voting states could give the senator a closer look from Democratic primary voters.
Clinton still leads Mr Sanders by large margins in national polls (57% to 18% in the latest CNN survey), but his campaign hopes that those numbers eventually will tighten.
No. More than 47 million reasons not to worry
Presidential hopeful Howard Dean had lots of supporters back in 2004, too, and all that got him was an early exit after losing in Iowa. Enthusiasm, while great for turning out volunteers and raising small-level donations, doesn't necessarily translate into election-day success.
One thing Mrs Clinton does have, in spades, is campaign dollars. According to the latest Federal Election Commission reports, she raised $47m (£30m) for her campaign over the past three months. In addition, the super PAC that will "independently" support her candidacy raked in another $15m.
In other words, Mrs Clinton has plenty of cash on hand to survive bumps on the road to the presidency - and although she's been busy spending it, reports are she's doing it in a way to build for long-term success, external.
Yes. She's losing to Trump among whites
That's right, Donald Trump - real-estate tycoon and walking incendiary soundbite - is beating Mrs Clinton among white voters 50% to 46%, according to that CNN survey.
While it's likely Mr Trump's rise and continued success has Clinton supporters desperately trying to come up with the best popcorn gif, external to illustrate their love of Trump-mentum, should they really feel so confident in cheering on a type of politics they find abhorrent?
The Washington Post's Philip Bump notes, external that the smart money says that even carrying the white vote, Mr Trump can't beat Mrs Clinton.
"But then the smart money's been on a bit of a losing streak," he concludes.
No. Trump's a Republican problem
If Mr Trump is a bit of a headache for Mrs Clinton, he's becoming a run-to-a-dark-room-and-pull-the-shades migraine for the Republicans candidates he's beating in the latest round of polls.
If he starts notching primary wins, the Republican establishment will quickly rally around the anti-Trump - likely Jeb Bush - the same way Patrick Buchanan's New Hampshire victory in 1996 prompted an OK-guys-let's-stop-messing-around surge of support for eventual nominee Robert Dole.
And if Mr Trump's ego is sufficiently bruised in the process, there's a chance he could mount a Ross Perot-like third-party challenge in the general election. Such a development would almost certainly be nothing but good news for Mrs Clinton.
- Published3 March 2015
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