Justin Trudeau: How is the new Canadian leader doing?

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Justin TrudeauImage source, Reuters

Two months ago, Canadian Liberal leader Justin Trudeau won in a dramatic election that unseated Conservative Stephen Harper after nearly a decade as prime minister.

The son of former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau promised "sunny ways" for Canadians during his victory speech.

He has had a busy first 10 weeks in office:

  • The environment: Attended Paris climate conference and pledged a framework focusing on reducing emissions targets within 90 days

  • Gender parity: Appointed women to 15 positions in his cabinet. Asked why, he said, "Because it's 2015"

  • Syrian refugees: Pledged to bring 25,000 refugees to Canada by the end of 2015 but later pushed date to February 2016, because of logistical issues and stymied by the 13 November terror attacks in Paris

  • Air strikes: Pledged to withdraw Canadian fighter jets some time this year in the campaign against the so-called Islamic State

  • Aboriginal relations: Pledged to open up an investigation into 1,200 missing or murdered Aboriginal women

We spoke to three Canadian pundits about how Mr Trudeau and his Liberal government is doing so far.

Rachel Giese, editor-at-large, Chatelaine Magazine

"So far, so good. But also, so far, he hasn't really been tested. A year from now, we can make a proper assessment."

She recently participated in a town hall discussion with Mr Trudeau.

"He said it was very important for him to be outside the bubble of Ottawa," said Ms Giese. "He said it's not good for a leader to be stuck talking to other politicians."

He's established very quickly out of the gate that his government is going to look very different

Rachel Giese, editor-at-large, Chatelaine Magazine
AP

Ms Giese said this attitude is starkly different from the "tightly-controlled" image of Mr Harper.

He knows a lot about symbolism and image and knows how to take advantage of social media and understanding pop culture, perhaps taking a cue from US President Barack Obama, she said.

Symbolism is one thing, but substance is another. Has Mr Trudeau kept his campaign promises?

"I think he's done a couple of things of real substance, and a couple of things about the style and tone of government going forward," she said. "He's established very quickly out of the gate that his government will look very different."

Image source, Reuters
Image caption,

Journalists were pleased with Mr Trudeau's candour at a recent town hall

Mr Trudeau is certainly ambitious, and so critics are wondering if he can deliver.

There are concerns about the economy, the Canadian dollar is in bad shape, oil prices are low and Canada is seeing a lot of household debt, said Ms Giese.

His decision to withdraw fighter jets from Syria some time this year has drawn some scorn, too, especially after the Paris terrorist attacks carried out by the so-called Islamic State which killed scores of people.

The scaling back of the Liberal government's promise to bring 25,000 refugees to Canada by the end of 2015 disappointed some as well.

"It was a hard goal to achieve when he suggested it… and in a strange awful kind of way, the attacks allowed [Mr Trudeau] to scale back a very ambitious plan without taking a lot of heat," she said.

Evan Solomon, political talk show radio host

"Justin Trudeau is going to be on a long political honeymoon," he said.

Mr Trudeau has done more interviews in the last two months than other politicians had done in years, he said.

He has made his entire cabinet available publicly available and made their mandate letters, which detail policy objectives, open to read to the public.

"His agenda is probably the most ambitious we've seen in generations," said Mr Solomon. "He's stored up an enormous amount of political capital to get this agenda done… it's going to be more complicated than saying good words."

The first evidence of that has been the scaling back of the refugee intake, but Mr Trudeau's greeting of refugees at the airport in Toronto was "not insignificant", he said.

We haven't heard him say no yet. It's too early to be cynical, but it's not too early to be sceptical

Evan Solomon, Canadian radio host
Reuters

"That was a very powerful image, and the Trudeau government understands how powerfully resonant this kind of image is. That's soft power," he said. "The problem is, when you look under the hood, it's a little less effective."

Liberals have been "all over the map" on promises to end combat missions in Iraq and Syria, he said.

The Trudeau government has also promptly accepted all 94 recommendations from the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, formed in response to "cultural genocide" committed by the Canadian government in which aboriginal children were taken from their homes and sent to government-run Christian schools.

"There are fundamental, complex legal issues in the recommendations," he said. "How he will do it, I don't know."

Mr Solomon predicts revenue will prove to be the most pressing challenge for Mr Trudeau.

"When his finance minister puts out the first budget, we will know the difference between rhetoric and reality… We haven't heard him say no yet. It's too early to be cynical, but it's not too early to be sceptical."

Mr Solomon hosts Everything is Political on SiriusXM satellite radio.

Nik Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research

The Institute for Research on Public Policy in Canada recently conducted a survey of 1,000 Canadians, finding that Canadians are largely feeling positive about their government and country since Mr Trudeau took office.

"The economy is weak, the price of oil has collapsed and the loonie is doing a swan dive, but Canadians are remarkably happy with the performance of the federal government," a release, external from the organisation says.

Sixty percent of those surveyed last month rated the Liberal government's performance so far good or very good, a record for the nine years the survey has been conducted. The closest Mr Harper's government ever came in the same survey was 40% in 2011.

The country is "moving in the right direction", 63% said, and a little more than half surveyed said federal provincial relations have improved under Mr Trudeau.

"For him, it's almost like the campaigning has not stopped, but now he is campaigning as prime minister," said Mr Nanos.

For him, it's almost like the campaigning has not stopped, but now he is campaigning as prime minister

Nik Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research
Reuters

The prime minister's biggest challenge will be sticking to his promise of running the government on a $10b (£4b) deficit, he said.

Because his administration has been so transparent, Canadians are accepting him running the government on a deficit, but if the deficit goes beyond that number, it "could be a political risk".

"I would expect that his political honeymoon will probably continue until the federal budget is tabled in the spring," said Mr Nanos.

Despite a decrease in the number of Syrian refugees arriving in the country from what was promised, Mr Trudeau is "looking even better" to Canadians because of the unwelcoming rhetoric of US politicians on the topic, such as Donald Trump.

"He has the ability to grab people's attention, and he's using that to engage Canadians in politics on the environment and social justice and so forth," said Mr Nanos.

"What's interesting is how he's using his star power to advance his political agenda for the country. He's not like a politician that we've seen before."

Interviews conducted by Ashley Gold