Liz Cheney -Why being a Trump martyr could be good for her

Congresswoman Liz Cheney's time on the leadership team for Republicans in the House of Representatives may be coming to an unceremonious end.

Her offence? Speaking ill of former President Donald Trump - and doing so frequently and with seeming relish.

On 12 January, she voted to impeach the then-president for inciting the pro-Trump mob that attacked the US Capitol the previous week, calling it a "betrayal" of his oath of office. She has since stood by that vote, calling allegations of election fraud a "big lie" and condemning all those who worked to challenge Joe Biden's victory.

This week, it appears her fellow Republicans have reached the limits of their tolerance for her perceived apostasy.

On Wednesday morning, congressman Steve Scalise - the second-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives - said it was time for third-ranking Cheney to go.

The previous day, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said in private remarks that were picked up by a television studio microphone that he had "had it with her" and "lost confidence".

The dust is still billowing on this particular storm, but if it settles as expected - with Cheney being ousted at the next House Republican meeting next Wednesday - here's who could wind up as the winners and losers of this latest party purge.

WINNERS

The Republican party

Liz Cheney's presence on the Republican House leadership team was a constant reminder that the party's apparent strategy for dealing with the 6 January Capitol attack was, essentially, to close their eyes and hope it went away.

Where most Republicans dodged when asked about the attack, she was direct and damning - offering the kind of meaty quotes journalists just love. This virtually guaranteed that every time Cheney appeared at a press conference with other Republican leaders, the topic of Trump would come up - and Cheney would do her thing.

That made Republican party officials uncomfortable. And since they couldn't very well agree with Cheney and risk crossing Trump's still solid base, they are poised to make Cheney go away.

Problem solved. At least for now.

Liz Cheney

The Never Trumpers who held fast through four long years have a new heroine, St Liz of Wyoming. Unlike other Trump critics who backed down when it appeared their political careers were in jeopardy - cough, Ted Cruz, cough - Cheney stood by her words and views.

She may have made the calculation that once one speaks ill of Trump, such slights are never fully forgotten, so she might as well go down swinging. And if the winds of fortune shift and Republican voters turn on Trump, Cheney will be there waiting.

In the meantime, the daughter of the former vice-president will be welcome in the salons of Washington and cable news green rooms. She'll have speaking appointments and book-deal offers aplenty.

In an op-ed on Wednesday for the Washington Post, Cheney threw down the gauntlet to her party to "steer away from the dangerous and anti-democratic Trump cult of personality".

"History is watching," she added.

Elise Stefanik

One politician's loss is another's gain. The New York congresswoman best known for her aggressive defence of Trump during hearings for his first impeachment has become the leading candidate to replace Cheney if and when she's voted out.

Elected in a swing district that has trended more reliably conservative - and pro-Trump - in recent years, the 36-year-old Stefanik is a rising star among House Republicans. Her voting record is considerably more moderate than Cheney's, but her growing influence suggests the party today values loyalty to Trump more than ideological purity.

Representative Elise Stefanik is seen as a rising star in the party

Stefanik is reportedly benefitting from concern among party elders that Cheney be replaced by another woman, to avoid having three white men at the top of the Republican house leadership team.

She's also benefitting from Trump's "complete and total endorsement", which he announced in a press statement on Wednesday.

Donald Trump

Speaking of the former president, he's the other big winner of the Cheney imbroglio. The Wyoming congresswoman's impending removal is yet further evidence that Trump still wields considerable power within the party.

Trump's disfavour - or even just the threat of it - sends Republicans running for cover. While he doesn't have his social media platform to provide near-instantaneous retribution for perceived transgressions, that doesn't seem to matter when it comes to maintaining loyalty within the party.

Despite the fact that he was defeated in the 2020 presidential election, his party lost control of both chambers of Congress on his watch and he keynoted a rally that culminated in an attack on the US Capitol, Trump's base is still strong. And as long as the base sticks with Trump, Republican officeholders will do likewise.

LOSERS

The Republican party - again

A confident, healthy party doesn't have acrimonious leadership fights. It doesn't boo its elder statesmen, as happened to former party presidential nominee and current Senator Mitt Romney at the Republican convention in Utah last weekend. It doesn't attempt to purge dissenting voices.

Republican leaders may claim to be focused on the path ahead, including winning back control of Congress in the 2022 mid-term elections. The move against Cheney, and the threats made against other Trump critics within the party, however, indicate that many Republicans - including the former president himself - are more focused on the past.

Relitigating the 2020 vote and trafficking in unfounded conspiracy theories about election fraud may soothe Trump's damaged ego, but it prevents the party from putting together a policy platform to run against Biden and the Democrats next year.

Republicans may still end up prevailing in those elections. History suggests the out-of-power party has the upper hand in congressional mid-terms. But by exiling members of their own party now, they're shrinking their portion of the electorate when they should be expanding it.

Liz Cheney - again

The thing about martyrdom is it usually doesn't end well for the martyr. At one point Cheney was mentioned as a future contender for speaker of the House or one of Wyoming's Senate seats. Instead, she's facing exile and a near-certain primary challenge if she decides to run for re-election to the House of Representatives next year.

And despite having a large campaign war chest and near universal name recognition, she may be the underdog when pitted against a Trump true-believer with the former president's full backing.

As the daughter of a former vice-president, she had a political pedigree that usually counts for a lot within a party that values conservative bona fides. This is no longer Dick Cheney's Republican Party, however. The Cheney brand of conservatism - fiscal restraint coupled with a muscular, internationalist foreign policy - is on the decline. Trump's populist conservatism is the new party line.

Kevin McCarthy

In the days after the 6 January insurrection, House Minority Leader McCarthy and Cheney struck similar notes. Although he voted against impeaching Trump, the California congressman gave a floor statement that did not go easy on the then-president.

"The president bears responsibility for Wednesday's attack on Congress by mob rioters," he said. "He should have immediately denounced the mob when he saw what was unfolding."

Although he began to backtrack from those remarks within a few weeks, he stood by Cheney during the first attempt to remove her from her party leadership spot at a closed-door meeting in February.

The man in line to be speaker of the House if Republicans take back control of the chamber next year has been treading carefully, trying to keep his party united under challenging circumstances.

Not only have his efforts proven unsuccessful, he is also becoming the target of conservative ire. Tucker Carlson, the influential Fox News talk show host, has been sharply critical of McCarthy over the past few days for what he deems as insufficient loyalty to Trump.

If that drumbeat continues, the man playfully called the "speaker in waiting" by his Republican colleagues may find his turn with the gavel never arrives.

Mitch McConnell

Things have been going somewhat better for the Republican elders on the Senate side of the Capitol, where Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has proven adept at holding his fellow conservatives united in opposing every major proposal put forward by Biden and the Democrats.

Some spillover from the Cheney conflict is unavoidable, however. McConnell, after all, was equally outspoken in his criticism of Trump after the 6 January attack. And while he didn't vote to convict the then-president when the House impeached, McConnell very clearly denounced Trump after he rendered his verdict.

"There's no question - none - that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day," he said, adding that it was a "disgraceful dereliction of duty".

Now that it appears Cheney will pay for her words, an emboldened Trump may once again take aim at the Kentucky senator. In one of his Wednesday statements denouncing Cheney, Trump took a swipe at McConnell, calling him "gutless and clueless".

McConnell, for his part, is trying not to take the bait.

"One-hundred percent of my focus is on stopping this new administration," he said when asked if he had comment about Cheney's impending removal. "One hundred percent of my focus is on standing up to this administration."

McConnell may be focusing on Biden, but he is going to have to keep an eye on Trump if he wants to avoid Cheney's fate.