Sport 2050: Why are we doing this - and why does it matter today?
- Published
Why?
Sport 2050 was conceived and created with the ambition of making the abstract future impacts of climate change more real for people by looking at how it might impact on their everyday lives. Sport - one of the most universally relatable areas of life across the globe that raises passions like no other - presents an ideal opportunity to do this.
The second thought behind the project was the ability of sport to help inform readers who may not otherwise have engaged with the science of, or news around, climate change. The science presented is therefore only designed to be of an introductory level and we have tried to link to and include some more in-depth reporting and articles for those who are interested.
The imagined scenarios are not predictions; they are creatively imagined and for illustrative purposes only - but are based on both the science and collective thoughts of how sport might adapt.
Why 2050?
2050 was chosen as being especially relatable to people's own lives as well as their children's and grandchildren's. It is close enough to be imagined and not too far beyond the planning cycles of major sporting events.
Another benefit of 2050 is that the difference between possible outcomes becomes more exaggerated over time and so by choosing 2050 the predictions of worst and best-case scenarios are closer. With that in mind, these stories are not rooted in one specific version of future global fossil fuel emissions or environmental change.
We also chose 2050 over 2100 to avoid making the predictions too sensational or catastrophic. The intention of the project is not to alarm but to inform and hopefully inspire conversation around the subject matter. To this end, we have also sought to include some of the many examples of positive work going on in the world of sport to limit its greenhouse gas footprints.
How each sport adapts to environmental changes is arguably just as much a variable as the science. The mitigations envisaged here are not presented as most likely or best practice; they are conceived of as impactful, creative ways to illustrate the challenges that sport might face.
Ways climate is already impacting sport
Who?
To guide us in the kind of stories and climate change impacts we should be looking at, we assembled a small panel of academics and industry experts who have a body of work specifically related to climate change and how it might impact sport.
David Goldblatt
David Goldblatt is an academic, journalist and author of the books The Ball is Round: A Global History of Football and The Age of Football: The Global Game in the Twenty First Century. He is currently chair of the Board of Trustees of Football For Future, looking at climate change and sustainability in English football.
Madeleine Orr
Madeleine Orr is a researcher at the University of British Columbia in the Faculty of Management and an Assistant Professor of Sport Management at SUNY Cortland. She is the founder and co-director of The Sport Ecology Group, an international consortium of academics who are supporting climate awareness and action in sports through research.
Kate Sambrook
Kate Sambrook is a PhD researcher at the University of Leeds, working between the Priestley International Centre for Climate in the Faculty of Environment, and the Centre for Decision Research in the Business School. She is the author of Hit for Six - a report about climate change and cricket.
Russell Seymour
Russell Seymour is founder and chief executive of the British Association for Sustainable Sport. He is a member of the advisory board for the Sport Ecology Group and was awarded the London 2012 Sustainability Ambassadors Award for his contribution towards a sustainable Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Nick Watanabe
Nicholas Watanabe is an associate professor of big data and analytics in the Department of Sport and Entertainment Management at the University of South Carolina, looking at the relationship between sport and the environment. He was named as a Research Fellow of the North American Society for Sport Management in 2018 and received the Breakthrough Star research award from the University of South Carolina in 2021.
The Met Office
The Met Office's Dr Fai Fung led the team who produced the projections. He said: "Climate projections are the best window we have on our future world and looking through that window reveals that all aspects of our lives will be affected increasingly by climate change.
"Looking at major global sporting events is an interesting way of understanding the impacts of climate change on society and we find that we can't take the future viability of any of these events for granted.
"Cutting greenhouse gas emissions by nations around the world will avoid many but not all of the worst impacts of climate change on people, businesses and nature - including sport. The science shows that adaptation will also be needed alongside the emission reductions."
Special thanks to the Met Office team: Bernd Becker, Dr Dan Bernie, Dr Fai Fung, Dr Helen Hanlon, Prof. Jason Lowe OBE, Rachel Perks, Dr James Pope and Grahame Madge.
How could the weather impact sport in 2050? BBC Weather's Simon King takes a look
Credits: Dave Lockwood, Hannah Lupton, Iain Hepburn, Libby Dawes, Chris Moran, Chris Jones, Michael Short, Hannah Magowan, Andrew Park, Nassos Stylianou, Sam Chadderton, Tom Housden, John Murphy, Becky Dale, Jonny Sodah, Jonathan Jones, Nick Waterworth, Chris Smith.