'Donegal would love Ulster title, but pressure on Armagh may be greater'

Ulster Football Final - Armagh v Donegal

Venue: St Tiernach's Park, Clones Date: Sunday, 12 May Throw-in: 16:00 BST

Coverage: Watch on BBC Two NI & BBC iPlayer; listen on BBC Sounds & BBC Radio Foyle; live text commentary with in-game clips, report and highlights on the BBC Sport website

As Gaelic football fans, we all want the same things from an Ulster final: sunshine, plenty of colour, a great atmosphere and an exciting game.

But something tells me we may only get a few of those things this weekend. While the colour and atmosphere are guaranteed and the sun is likely to at least make an appearance, Sunday's game is shaping up to be a good old-fashioned slugfest rather than a high-scoring thriller.

I'd love to be wrong about it, but be prepared for a cagey, cautious and claustrophobic encounter.

Their two previous meetings this year certainly suggest as much.

The Division Two game in Armagh was very defensive. It became a case of which team could break the other one down.

And while there were some injury-enforced personnel changes for the Division Two final, the game at Croke Park followed a similar pattern.

When you consider the magnitude of Sunday's game, there is a strong chance we will see more cautious and risk-averse football that stems from a fear of losing.

But that doesn't mean we won't be gripped by it all. Derry and Armagh produced a captivating spectacle in last year's final and Donegal and Armagh could do something similar this time out.

Armagh took Derry all the way with extra-time and penalties 12 months ago and you wouldn't bet against more extra-time this year.

Just look at the last two: it was a draw in Armagh in February and the Division Two final was level until Aaron Doherty kicked Donegal to victory in stoppage time.

When we won the Ulster title under Jim McGuinness in 2011, it was a huge shot in the arm for the county.

Winning another provincial title in the first year of this journey would be a remarkable achievement, but Donegal have already gotten more than expected out of this season.

Not only have they tucked away a Division Two title, but McGuinness has successfully blooded several players and strengthened his hand to the point where he has selection dilemmas up front - does he go with both Oisin Gallen and Patrick McBrearty again, or does he opt for more flexibility in Aaron Doherty?

Fit-again Rafferty should start for Armagh

The Ulster Championship means a great deal to Jim and Donegal, but you could argue that the pressure on Armagh is greater.

Armagh have not won an Ulster title in 16 years. They've also experienced some painful defeats in recent years, and while this is year one for McGuinness' new Donegal, it's year 10 for Kieran McGeeney.

It is a testament to Armagh that so many of their squad have been together for the past six or seven years. They've come through some serious battles together and now have a really rugged, rigid defence that's as good as any in the country.

Their performances against Fermanagh and Down were patchy but they still won those games and have all of their players fit again.

Ciaran Mackin and Aidan Forker have been huge for them. Peter McGrane and Paddy Burns have been impeccable man-marking full-backs and then you have a top eight that packs so much firepower and attacking quality, from a rejuvenated Rian O'Neill in midfield to the always-dangerous Conor Turbitt up top.

One of the big questions regarding the Armagh line-up, of course, is at the other end of field. Blaine Hughes has been great in goal this year, but Ethan Rafferty appears to be back fit after making the bench against Down two weeks ago.

For me, Armagh will have a better chance of winning the game if Rafferty is involved from the start.

Losing his place for the final would be tough on Hughes, but Rafferty was Armagh's best player last year.

Given Rafferty's quality on long-range frees, ability to build attacks and range of kick-outs, this game is crying out for his inclusion. He is a dice worth rolling for McGeeney and his involvement could prove decisive at Clones on Sunday.

Ethan Rafferty's return to fitness could prove a big boost for Armagh

We saw last week that the losers of the Connacht final dropped into perhaps the easier Sam Maguire group.

When you look at it, the Ulster final winners will get the more favourable All-Ireland group but there will not have been a murmur about that in either dressing room.

This is a huge game for both teams. Armagh haven't won Ulster in so long and want to right the wrong of losing to Derry last year. And I don't think anyone can question how deeply Jim McGuinness and his Donegal players value the Ulster Championship.

The All-Ireland series is coming fast around the corner but claiming the Anglo Celt at Clones remains the focus for now.

It's a close game to call. This Donegal team have progressed massively this year, and as much as I'd love to see them win another Ulster title, the pressure of Armagh's need may just carry them over the line.

Michael Murphy was speaking to BBC Sport NI's Matt Gault