T20 World Cup: England well placed, but wary of the unknown
- Published
Jos Buttler (left) will lead England into a global tournament for the first time
Former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld once spoke of "known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns".
As England concluded the serious part of their preparation for the T20 World Cup in wet Canberra, ending as impressive 2-0 series victors over hosts and defending champions Australia, they have their own knowns, unknowns and unknown unknowns.
Even without the out-of-form Jason Roy and injured Jonny Bairstow, England know they have the batting power to match any other team in the tournament.
Conversely, they will be aware death bowling has proved their undoing in the last two T20 World Cups - the final over of the final in 2016 and the end of the semi-final against New Zealand 12 months ago.
It looks like Sam Curran is being primed to bowl in those pressurised moments, with promising results.
England will also be under no illusions about the task of navigating their way through the draw, of which they have landed on the tougher side.
A group containing the Aussies, New Zealand and Afghanistan already looks tricky, before the likely prospect of being joined by resurgent Asia Cup winners Sri Lanka (under former England coach Chris Silverwood) and one of West Indies, Ireland, Scotland or Zimbabwe.
Still, failing to reach the semi-finals would be a classed as a huge failure, and to guard against that head coach Matthew Mott has made a couple of savvy appointments to his backroom in fellow Australians David Saker and Mike Hussey.
Saker was the bowling coach that helped mastermind the 2010-11 Ashes success, while legendary batter Hussey needs no introduction. From Mr Cricket to Mr England.
It is with Mott where England's unknowns begin. This will be their first tournament under his stewardship, after a difficult start to his reign in the home summer. The 4-3 series win with a half-strength team in Pakistan was a good result, the victory over Australia even better.
Mott already has the boost of a 2022 World Cup winners' medal, too, having taken the Australia women to 50-over success in April.
Buttler also takes the reins in a world event for the first time and it will be fascinating to see how England cope without the calm authority of retired former skipper Eoin Morgan.
Whereas Morgan often had the benefit of a settled side and a priority placed on the importance of the white-ball team, Buttler will be in no doubt that Test cricket is currently England's prime focus.
It means England's first-choice T20 side has only been assembled at the very last minute, partly because multi-format players were rested for limited-overs matches during the summer, but also because a treatment room full of fast bowlers has just begun to empty.
It is a huge boost for England to have Chris Woakes, Chris Jordan and, in particular, Mark Wood available, but there will be a doubt over how much they have to nurse all three - especially the lethal Wood, who on current form is the fastest bowler in the world. The absence of Jofra Archer remains keenly felt.
Of less obvious, but perhaps greater, concern is the form of Adil Rashid. The leg-spinner has arguably been even more important than the batting superstars during England's white-ball supremacy, but he has endured a poor spell.
Both his economy and average in 2022 are worse than any other year since 2009, his first in international cricket.
And then there is the issue of Stokes, who has returned to the England T20 side for the first time since the beginning of 2021. In his 18 months away for reasons of fitness, mental health and being rested, the questions over how best to utilise the Test captain in the shortest form have grown louder.
First and foremost, Stokes is Stokes - one of the most extraordinary cricketers of his generation, capable of salvaging the most hopeless situation single-handedly. As Buttler said, big moments seem to find him.
Thanks to Carlos Brathwaite, Stokes has the motivation of unfinished business with the T20 World Cup and he has the pedigree of once being named the Most Valuable Player in the Indian Premier League.
But Stokes has played only three T20 matches of any kind since July last year. As an example, Liam Livingstone has featured in 59.
Even Superman can get rusty if he hasn't saved the world in a while. The villains get more sophisticated, the problems more complex, rescues more impossible.
For now, England should continue to back Stokes, not just for the impact he can make with bat, ball and in the field, but because his mere presence lifts his own team and strikes fear into the opposition.
However, including Stokes leads to a decision on the right balance of the XI. If England want all of Stokes, Livingstone and Moeen Ali in the same side, they would either have to leave out a batter in Harry Brook, or go with only four frontline bowlers.
The latter would probably be the favoured option, given the trio of all-rounders are more than good enough to at least bowl the overs of a fifth bowler, and probably more.
Still, it is worth England keeping in mind that, in general, batters win matches, whereas bowlers win tournaments. They may need to switch to a five-strong frontline attack.
At least Buttler, Mott and the rest will be aware of these pending problems. It is the danger of the unknown unknowns, thrown up more frequently in T20 World Cups than any other tournament, that could be the biggest threat to England becoming simultaneous champions in the two limited-overs formats.
Last year, in the United Arab Emirates, England were probably the strongest team in the competition, only to be derailed by injuries and a crucial toss in the semi-final against New Zealand.
Six years ago they had one hand on the trophy until Brathwaite's four final-over sixes off the bowling of the shattered Stokes.
The T20 World Cup has a history of producing a winner from nowhere. Unlike its marathon 50-over brother, the 20-over tournament is a sprint where even your start doesn't matter so long as you finish well.
In 2010, an England team thrown together at the last minute could have been eliminated by Ireland had it not rained in Guyana, but went on to lift the trophy.
Four years later an unfancied Sri Lanka stunned the might of India in the final, and last year Australia recovered from a humbling by England in the group stage to become world champions.
England know what they know and what they don't know.
It is the unknown unknowns which makes the T20 World Cup so dangerous, thrilling and unpredictable.