The Ashes 2023: England will win series 3-2 if they beat Australia in Manchester - Michael Vaughan
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The Ashes Highlights: England battle weather to keep Ashes hopes alive
England will go on to win the Ashes if they can force a victory on the final day of the fourth Test on Sunday, says former captain Michael Vaughan.
Australia will resume on 214-5, 61 runs behind, so if England take five quick wickets they will level the series before next week's finale at The Oval.
However, more poor weather is forecast for day five after rain allowed only 30 overs of play on Saturday.
Vaughan told Test Match Special that day five "decides the series".
"If England win they'll win at The Oval, whatever team Australia pick," he said. "Australia will be totally gone in terms of energy.
"If Australia get away with it - and they'll need some weather to help - then the momentum and energy will be back in Australia's legs."
Australia, who lead the series 2-1, only need a draw at Old Trafford retain the Ashes, given they are the current holders and would keep the urn if the five-Test contest finishes level.
England, meanwhile, are attempting to come from 2-0 down to win the Ashes for the first time in history.
Vaughan added: "I look at the mentality of the England dressing room and will they really be itching to put on their best performance when all they can do is draw the Ashes?"
"They should and they will and they'll give it a good effort but sometimes subconsciously you just drop off because you can't win the series."
Root removes Labuschagne on 111
England took one wicket on day four - Marnus Labuschagne edging Joe Root's off-spin behind for 111 - as the tourists dug in, having been dominated across the previous three days.
The hosts need to dismiss Australia before they wipe out the current deficit or leave themselves enough time to chase any target the tourists can set.
"We weren't expecting much play so to get what we did was a little bit of a bonus really," said England batting coach Marcus Trescothick.
While England under captain Ben Stokes have previously said they are not interested in draws, Labuschagne said there was "zero" chance of Australia attempting anything other than batting out the day.
"Whatever time we have left tomorrow, there's only one option, which is to bat out the day," he said.
"I don't think we're going to give England a sniff, that's exactly what they'd like."
Australia bowler Josh Hazlewood said on day three he would be "very pleased" to see the rain arrive and Trescothick said it can be "dangerous" to rely on the weather, or concentrate solely on survival.
"If you start looking for other ways than internally in your team to stop games happening or to not lose a game, potentially, then it becomes a dangerous point," he said.
Labuschagne's best shots as he reaches a century