England's 'best chance' - why they can win T20 World Cup

England have been knocked out at the semi-final stage of the past two T20 World Cups

Women's T20 World Cup 2024

Dates: 3-20 October Venues: Sharjah & Dubai

Coverage: Ball-by-ball radio commentary on BBC Sounds, plus live text commentary and in-play video clips on the BBC Sport website and app

Women's T20 World Cup titles are hard to come by, unless you are Australia.

The game's dominant force have won six of the past seven tournaments, while England have generally under-performed with successive semi-final exits.

But, for the upcoming tournament in the United Arab Emirates, which starts on Thursday, Heather Knight's side are genuine contenders to lift the trophy as one of the most in-form teams.

"England have got all bases covered," former England spinner Alex Hartley told the BBC Test Match Special podcast.

"This is the best chance they've had of winning it for a long time."

England start against Bangladesh on Saturday, 5 October, and are favourites to finish top of their group which includes Scotland, South Africa and West Indies.

Here's how they can win the tournament, and who may stand in their way.

Peaking at the right time

Data is England's ranking in each phase of the game compared to the other nine sides in the tournament and includes games just against those teams

England should have plenty of confidence after going unbeaten throughout the home summer with clean sweeps against Pakistan and New Zealand.

They won 11 consecutive T20s up until the series finale against Ireland in September, where only two members of their World Cup squad were playing.

Crucially, they have a slight mental edge over Australia, having inflicted a first T20 series defeat on the world champions since 2017 during last summer's unforgettable Ashes.

"That was the first time we had seen England compete against them in years," said Ebony Rainford-Brent, who was part of the 2009-World Cup winning squad.

"It showed there were some cracks and, for the first time in years, England truly believed Australia were beatable."

A shock T20 series defeat by Sri Lanka followed, though with a few key players rested, but the past year has seen England refine their aggression under coach Jon Lewis and they have developed a well-rounded, consistent squad.

Captain Knight, Danni Wyatt-Hodge, Nat Sciver-Brunt and wicketkeeper Amy Jones provide the experience with the bat, while the likes of Alice Capsey, Freya Kemp and Danielle Gibson could provide some explosive power-hitting - but their spin bowling is their ultimate weapon.

Sophie Ecclestone is the world's best T20 bowler with leg-spinner Sarah Glenn ranked fourth, while Charlie Dean and Linsey Smith add other dimensions.

They average 16.21, and concede just 6.09 runs-per-over, since the last World Cup, compared to 24.89 and 7.01 by the seamers.

They are particularly effective through the middle overs, conceding just 5.34 runs-per-over and have become a key part of England containing teams.

Handling the pressure

England were disappointingly knocked out by hosts South Africa in the 2023 semi-final

For England, there is no doubting they have the skills and talent required to win the World Cup, but instead it is a question of their mindset under pressure and how they respond to that.

During the last World Cup, they were knocked out by hosts South Africa in a semi-final they were expected to win, with some inexperienced players crumbling under the weight of the occasion.

That tournament was early in head coach Lewis' tenure, and he pinpoints this as one of his, and his team's, biggest learnings.

"We are still working on it, but the Australians did it to us a lot [put us under the pump] last summer and we took a massive amount of confidence from how we responded," said Lewis.

"At that time, we weren't particularly well-connected on the field so we've worked really hard on our communication."

But while England fought back in the Ashes and have been dominant this year, there are doubts surrounding how much they have been tested, with Pakistan and New Zealand offering little threat.

T20 cricket is unpredictable, but England should finish top of their group. Australia and India should advance from theirs and given the dominance of those three teams in the women's game, real pressure is unlikely to come until the semi-finals - but former England fast bowler Katherine Sciver-Brunt says they cannot take their group lightly.

"England's camp is very confident. The only thing that could let them down is their own minds," said Sciver-Brunt.

"They will be challenged by Bangladesh because of their spinners. West Indies have the world's best T20 player in Hayley Matthews - she can win a game by herself - and they've got Deandra Dottin back, and as a team with nothing to lose they are a dangerous prospect.

"England are smarter, there's no reason they should not finish top, but there are no walkovers. Reaching the semis has never been England's problem, it's more how to handle it when they get there."

One concern for England, especially with the expected conditions, will be their average against spin. It stands at just 20.72, compared to 28.27 against pace.

Australia and India are beatable

Data shows the three sides are closely matched but England have the edge on Australia in overs 16-20 when batting and during overs 7-20 when bowling. Teams will want to achieve the highest possible number while batting, and the smallest when bowling

Based on recent results and world rankings, Australia and India are the other heavyweights.

The former's record speaks for itself, and while the latter are still seeking a first global title, they are rapidly improving.

India's frustration at recent World Cups has been similar to England's - promising group-stage efforts followed by a stumble at the last hurdle.

They almost beat Australia in the 2023 semi-final only for captain Harmanpreet Kaur's bat getting stuck in the ground and causing her run out, but the seismic change since that tournament has been the introduction of the Women's Premier League.

A recent shock saw Sri Lanka beat them to win the Asia Cup, but the emergence of young players like off-spinner Shreyanka Patil, the form of Deepti Sharma and world class talent in Harmanpreet and Smriti Mandhana makes them a force to be reckoned with, but their ability to finish innings strongly with the bat is still a question.

"It's a matter of 'when' and not 'if' India win a World Cup," said Hartley.

"They are hit and miss, but they are gaining in strength and depth from the WPL now."

As for Australia, there have been some glimpses of their star quality fading somewhat in recent months, starting with T20 and ODI defeats by England in the Ashes and one-off defeats to India, West Indies and South Africa.

Their batting run-rate has dropped slightly in the middle overs (7-15) and death overs (16-20) compared to the previous World Cup cycle - while they are conceding more runs in every phase when bowling.

But write them off at your peril, as Katherine Sciver-Brunt warns: "If anything, losing makes them more dangerous because they will know other teams are after them, and that will get them fired up."

They are without retired superstar captain Meg Lanning, who led them to glory in 2023, but they are a side awash with world greats: Alyssa Healy, Ellyse Perry, Ash Gardner and Megan Schutt to name a few, with young guns Annabel Sutherland and Phoebe Litchfield providing the excitement.

The conditions in the UAE could also level the playing field, with it being a neutral venue and just seven women's matches being played at Sharjah (zero at Dubai) and none since 2017.