Sinner v Alcaraz
A big title image with Sinner and Alcaraz

The evolution of a new duopoly – and where the rivalry goes from here

Having this rivalry means a lot - it is super special for me, for him and for the people who enjoy it every single time we play

Carlos Alcaraz

It is a rivalry that has swiftly come to be defined by its breathtaking quality on the court and, away from it, a close friendship founded on mutual admiration.

At the conclusion of the 2025 season, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner stand clear from the rest at the top of men's tennis.

As they continue to inspire each other to greater heights, there is no suggestion that the new duopoly in men's tennis will be broken up any time soon.

: At the end of 2025, the points gap between second and third in the men’s world rankings is greater than that between third and 1000th

For a second successive year, Spaniard Alcaraz and Italy's Sinner split all four Grand Slam titles between them, taking their total major wins to six and four respectively.

Remarkably, in 2025 there was not a single tournament in which both Alcaraz, 22, and Sinner, 24, played that was not eventually won by one of them.

The generational talents have met in the past three major finals, having contested an unforgettable first at the French Open in May.

Their ever-tightening grip on the men's tour was further emphasised when they met in a final for the sixth time this year to decide the season-ending ATP Finals.

Yet, despite all that was at stake - the trophy, the world number one ranking, and a $5m jackpot - the pre-tournament favourites practised together before beginning their title bids in Turin, and later shared a selfie which has received more than half a million likes on Instagram.

Beyond the silverware and prize money, both are fully aware of the importance of the other in unlocking their full potential, with the story of their respective careers now inevitably intertwined.

Sinner and Alcaraz are the first players to meet in six ATP-level singles finals in a season for 41 years
A big title with French open final

Sunday, 8 June 2025 -  Alcaraz 4-6 6-7 (4-7) 6-4 7-6 (7-3) 7-6 (10-2) Sinner

At first, I started watching the match from a tactical point of view. But then I entered a phase of admiration. I haven't often felt that while watching other people play. There are maybe four or five matches in my life where I watched and said to myself 'wow'. It was an astronomical level of tennis.

24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic

A dizzying five-and-a-half hours of extraordinary drama answered, unequivocally, the question that lingered over men's tennis.

During the 'Big Three' era of men's tennis, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer captured 66 of a possible 81 Grand Slam titles over two decades of dominance.

The Roland Garros final heralded the undisputed succession of that rivalry as the much-hyped first showdown between Sinner and Alcaraz for a major title exceeded all expectations. It was a match that truly transcended the sport.

In truth, Alcaraz and Sinner had already long begun writing their own chapter.

They hinted at the epics to follow with a five-hour, five-set thriller in their US Open quarter-final in 2022 which ended at a record late finishing time of 2.50am in New York.

Another five-setter, extending beyond four hours, at Roland Garros in 2024 had further built anticipation of what might lie ahead.

The makings of an epic

Alcaraz had triumphed in the previous four meetings before his first Grand Slam final showdown with Sinner in Paris. He will begin the next encounter having won seven of the past nine.

It is a surprising imbalance between the game's heavyweights, and the statistics indicate Sinner's underperformance in their meetings has been the defining reason.

Sinner leads the ATP Tour for 'conversion score' - put simply, he is the most clinical finisher when presented with the opportunity to end a point.

When Sinner meets Alcaraz, he tends to waste chances he would normally seize - his conversion score plummets by 13% - while his serve quality also drops.

Radar graph showing how Sinners game dips against Alcaraz

Conversely, Alcaraz leads the tour for 'steal score' - a measure demonstrating his unparalleled ability to absorb pressure and turn defence into attack.

Alcaraz thrives in their showdowns and raises the quality of his returns, forehands and backhands against Sinner.

Radar graph showing how Sinner's game plummets when playing Alcaraz

Reassuringly for Sinner, in meetings in which he is able to be as clinical as against the rest of the tour, he can expect to edge their duels.

Nadal and Federer playing in the Wimbledon 2008 men's tennis final.

Nadal and Federer had Wimbledon 2008

Nadal and Djokovic in the Australian men's tennis final in 2012

Djokovic and Nadal had the 2012 Australian Open

Djokovic and Federer in the Wimbledon men's tennis final in 2019

Djokovic and Federer had Wimbledon 2019

This was the first battle between Alcaraz and Sinner for one of the sport's major titles.

But something exceptional will be required to replace the 2025 French Open as the enduring zenith of their rivalry.

The significance of the events in Paris was evident in the frenzied grandstands of Court Philippe Chatrier, the outpouring of praise from players, legends and fans on television and social media, the sight of Spain's footballers gathered on the pitch around a phone to follow their compatriots' fightback before their Nations League final.

Its status as an all-time classic could not have been foreseen as Sinner set up three championship points on Alcaraz's serve.

Carlos Alcaraz facing three championship points in the 2020 French Open final

But that label was undeniable when the longest ever French Open final concluded, the crowd rising to their feet as an exhausted Alcaraz dropped to the clay after completing an astonishing comeback.

Alcaraz's eventual triumph, clinched with a stunning on-the-run forehand down the line to conclude the match tie-break required to separate them, was ultimately made possible by his bravery on the big points and his willingness to play aggressively in the key moments.

He is celebrated as a showman, competing with child-like joy and freedom. His propensity to favour the spectacular rather than safe option may have frustrated his team and supporters at times during his development - and he remains much more prone to in-game momentum swings than Sinner.

However, here it delivered a stunning climax.

He hit 17 more winners than Sinner in the French Open final. But, crucially, he produced 12 more than his opponent in the decisive games at the end of sets - and specifically those later in the match - to pull off a miracle.

Sinner had won 193 points to Alcaraz's 192.

Alcaraz clutch winners

Winners in last four games of a set

Set

Alcaraz

Sinner

Difference

1

2

2

0

2

2

4

-2

3

6

1

+5

4

4

1

+3

5

9

3

+6

Last four game total

23

11

+12

Match total

70

53

+17

Alcaraz became only the third player in the Open era to win a men's singles Grand Slam final after saving match points, following Djokovic (Wimbledon 2019) and Gaston Gaudio (Roland Garros 2004).

But neither player, in their contrasting emotional states, was left in any doubt that they had been part of something greater.

Their admiration and respect for one another was clear - and both knew they would need to return with new tricks for their future battles.

It is a privilege to share the court and be able to make history with you.

Alcaraz to a devastated Sinner

Wimbledon Final
A big title with Wimbledon final on it

Sunday, 13 July 2025 Sinner 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 Alcaraz

We know he has gone through his battles on and off the court, but to come back from Paris shows how good he is - and how good he is going to be for years to come.

BBC pundit Todd Woodbridge

For the first time since 2002 - when Sinner was less than a year old and Alcaraz not yet born - the Wimbledon men's singles final did not feature one of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic or Andy Murray.

For Sinner, the rematch on the grass of Centre Court was as much a test of his mental resolve as anything else - not least when he fell a set behind.

Sinner served a three-month doping suspension after retaining his Australian Open title in January as part of a challenging start to the year for the Italian.

Then came the devastation of Paris. But, just 35 days later, Sinner was able to exact revenge on Alcaraz in a ruthless display.

Having taken time to be at home with family before embracing an intense period of training, Sinner delivered a serving masterclass while dominating from the baseline.

To set up set point


So much so that it even caused Alcaraz to make an uncharacteristic show of frustration.

To set up break point

From the back of the court he is much better than me. Much better!

Alcaraz to his team during the Wimbledon final

Sinner had, at last, been able to unleash the devastating combination of power and precision by which he dominates all others.

To set up match point

Dictating with brutal, flat ball-striking against the tour's escape artist, Sinner once again earned three championship points. This time, he would not be denied.

He crouched to the ground and took a moment for himself, having rebounded from heartbreak to secure his first Wimbledon title.

The significance of the victory, beyond the tangible, was not lost on his team.

Today was important for many reasons. He needed that win today. He knew the importance of closing this one out when he had the opportunity.

Sinner’s coach Darren Cahill

In south-west London, Sinner, so often stifled by Alcaraz, asserted his game and performed at a level more comparable to his tour average.

Not only did improved serving in the Wimbledon final allow Sinner to play more shots in attack - meaning those points where he received a low-quality shot, was positioned up the court, or was able to hit from a comfortable contact point - but he was able to capitalise on the opportunities that provided.

As he sought to close out victory, Sinner won 92% of points when positioned in attack as he comprehensively lay his demons to rest.

The fourth Grand Slam title of Sinner's career was, significantly, his first major title not on a hard court. It also ended a run of five consecutive losses to his main rival.

Only me and the people who are close to me know exactly what we have been through on and off the court, and it has been everything except easy. [It is] very emotional, even if I don't cry.

Sinner at Wimbledon

US Open final
A big title with US open final on it

Sunday, 7 September 2025 -  Alcaraz 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4 Sinner

I'm seeing you more than my family.

Alcaraz to Sinner in New York

Two months later, Alcaraz and Sinner became the first players in the Open era to meet in three consecutive major finals in the same season.

This time, it was Alcaraz who powered to a four-set win to edge their blockbuster trilogy in New York - and dethrone Sinner as world number one for the first time in 65 weeks.

Alcaraz and coach Juan Carlos Ferrero claimed to have quickly identified what they needed to correct after the loss to Sinner at Wimbledon.

While they chose to keep the details to themselves, a subtle change in the Spaniard's serve appeared to provide the foundation for success.

Alcaraz was absolutely faultless. He was hitting his spots on serve and played with power, control and aggression. He really did dominate Sinner in Sinner's favourite environment.

Former British player Tim Henman

Having highlighted the importance of improving his serve at the start of the year, Alcaraz ended the US Open having won a remarkable 97% of his service games.

In the final, the Spaniard increased the use of wide serves, to both sides, and added pace, in a bid to manoeuvre Sinner - and did so while maintaining a high first and second-serve win percentage.

Diagram showing how Alcaraz's wide service percentage improves against Sinner

That tweak created the attacking opportunities he needed to dominate, and which he had been starved of at Wimbledon.

In a near-faultless display, Alcaraz hit 10 aces - including one to clinch his third championship point - won 83% (45/54) of his first-serve points and fired in 41 winners.

Alcaraz played at a level that not a single human being on the planet can reach at the moment. He is unplayable at this level.

Former Wimbledon champion Marion Bartoli

Having been comprehensively beaten, Sinner reflected on the challenge posed by being confronted by Alcaraz's variety in finals once he has blasted his way through the rest of the draw.

It was once again the Italian's turn to problem solve.

I was very predictable today on court. He changed up the game. Now it's going to be on me if I want to make changes or not.

Sinner after losing the US Open final

2026 and beyond

You come back even stronger after every loss.

Alcaraz to Sinner after the ATP Finals

The big question, at the end of a season in which their rivalry entered the stratosphere, is where it might go from here.

The answer is likely to lie in Sinner's admission that he needs to adapt. Specifically, to be less one-dimensional - and more like Alcaraz.

Alcaraz is, at present, the only player with the weaponry and unpredictability to truly unsettle Sinner, armed with his mastery of drop shots and slices, and willingness to come to the net.

By contrast, Sinner leads the ATP Tour in the use of core shots (88%) - those which travel through the opponent's baseline - meaning he plays with the least amount of variation of any player.

Quite often, he does not need to. Until he meets Alcaraz.

Variation of shots, showing Alcaraz's to be 24.4% and Sinner only 13.5%

There have already been signs of a shift in Sinner's approach since the US Open.

While only a snapshot, Sinner's use of variation shots was an Alcaraz-like 25.9% in his opening match at the Vienna Open in October.

Their dominance does not look set to end any time soon.

Beyond their stranglehold on the majors, Djokovic is the only player other than Alcaraz and Sinner to claim more than 20 ATP Tour-level titles since the start of 2020. All three have won 24.

But at 38 years old, Djokovic remains without the outright record 25th major singles title he has been chasing since he equalled Margaret Court's all-time total at the 2023 US Open.

Few would bet against anyone denying Alcaraz and Sinner another sweep of major final showdowns next year, but fans will be keen to watch for signs that point to a third challenger in the new season.

After losing to 19-year-old Joao Fonseca in the final of the Swiss Indoors last month, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina identified the Brazilian as the only player who can rival Alcaraz and Sinner.

Fellow top-20 players Ben Shelton, Jack Draper, Casper Ruud and Jakub Mensik will each hope to kick on after winning ATP Masters 1000 titles this year.

But for now, Alcaraz and Sinner continue only to measure themselves against the other.

When he plays such great tennis, it gives me motivation to go to the practice court, give 100%, try to be better. Sometimes he's annoying but, at the same time, he gives me extra motivation.

We have a special relationship and friendship off the court. People might think when two players are competing for great things, they can't have a great friendship. We show that it's possible as well.

Alcaraz

Should their dominance continue in 2026, both players could complete the career Grand Slam by June.

For that to happen, Alcaraz would need to win his first Australian Open, before Sinner triumphs at the French Open.

It is a feat achieved by only eight men in history.

Alcaraz will begin the year as world number one, having regained the title at the ATP Finals - although Sinner went on to lift the trophy in Turin.

He leads by just 550 points - less than the 700-point gap between a Grand Slam winner and a runner-up.  

And, wherever their rivalry resumes, it will do so with both players having won exactly 1,651 points of the 3,302 points they have contested across their 16 official matches to date.

Despite all they have already achieved, there remains the sense that they are only getting started.

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner stand at the net at the Wimbledon final, arms around each other in a sportsmanlike gesture, with a cheering crowd in the background.

Credits

Written by Harry Poole
Edited by Amy Lofthouse
Sub-edited by Sonia Oxley
Design by Scott McCall
Images by Getty Images
Data provided by TennisViz