Premier League predictions: Lawro v SAM the super-computer
- Published
BBC Sport's football expert Mark Lawrenson is pitting his wits against a different guest each week this season.
Lawro's opponent for Boxing Day's Premier League fixtures is a state-of-the-art super-computer called SAM (Sports Analytics Machine).
Ian McHale, professor of sports analytics at the University of Salford, together with his colleague, Tarak Kharrat, has built SAM and one of the things it can do is predict the outcomes of football matches.
"We are in the era of big data, and since the 'moneyball' revolution kick-started the use of analytics in baseball, progress in football has gathered pace rapidly," said McHale.
"We have data on results, teams, players and every event in every match - there is no better time to see if man can beat the machine."
Let the battle commence…
Premier League predictions - Week 18 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Result | Lawro | SAM | |
BOXING DAY | |||
Stoke v Man Utd | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
Aston Villa v West Ham | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Chelsea v Watford | 2-2 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
Liverpool v Leicester | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
Man City v Sunderland | 4-1 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
Swansea v West Brom | 1-0 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
Tottenham v Norwich | 3-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
Newcastle v Everton | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Southampton v Arsenal | 4-0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Our scoring system has changed this season and a correct result (picking a win, draw or defeat) is now worth 10 points. The exact score earns 40 points.
Last week, Lawro got one perfect score and one correct result from 10 Premier League games.
However, his score of 50 points was not enough to beat comedian and Phoenix Nights star Justin Moorhouse, who scored 70 points with one perfect score and three correct results.
We are keeping a record of the totals for Lawro and his guests (below), and showing a table of how the Premier League would look if all of Lawro's predictions were correct (at the bottom of the page).
Make your own predictions now, compare them to Lawro and other fans and try to take your team to the top of the leaderboard by playing the BBC Sport Predictor game.
Total scores after week 17 | |
---|---|
Lawro | 1,180 |
Guests | 890 |
LAWRO'S PREDICTIONS
All Boxing Day kick-offs 15:00 GMT unless otherwise stated
Stoke 2-0 Manchester United
Aston Villa 1-1 West Ham United
Bournemouth 0-0 Crystal Palace
Chelsea 2-2 Watford
Liverpool 1-0 Leicester
Manchester City 4-1 Sunderland
Swansea 1-0 West Bromwich Albion
Tottenham 3-0 Norwich
Newcastle 0-1 Everton
Southampton 4-0 Arsenal
Lawro's prediction: 1-2
SAM's prediction: 1-1
Lawro was speaking to BBC Sport's Jonathan Jurejko.
Lawro v Guests | |||
---|---|---|---|
P17 | W11 | D4 | L2 |
SCORE | GUEST LEADERBOARD |
---|---|
110 | Sam Tomkins |
100 | Wealdstone Raider |
90 | Amir Khan |
70 | Justin Moorhouse, Osi Umenyiora |
69 | Lawro (average after 17 weeks) |
60 | Stuart Broad, Tim Burgess |
50 | Mark Radcliffe, Jack Whitehall |
40 | Neville, Mumford & Sons |
30 | Darren Campbell, Luol Deng, Mark Webber |
20 | Graeme Swann |
10 | Paul Heaton, Kelly Jones |
Lawro's best score: 140 points (week three v Jack Whitehall & week four v Darren Campbell)
Lawro's worst score: 20 points (week one v Graeme Swann)
ARROWS & +/- DENOTE POSITION DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAWRO'S TABLE AND REAL TABLE | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
POS | TEAM | P | W | D | L | PTS | DIFF | +/- |
1. | Man City | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 42 | +2 | |
2. | Arsenal | 17 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 39 | 0 | |
3. | Chelsea | 17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 38 | +12 | |
4. | Liverpool | 17 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 37 | +5 | |
5. | Man Utd | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0 | |
6. | Southampton | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 32 | +6 | |
7. | West Brom | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 30 | +6 | |
8. | Crystal Palace | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 26 | -2 | |
9. | Tottenham | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 25 | -5 | |
10. | Newcastle | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 24 | +7 | |
11. | Swansea | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 20 | +7 | |
12. | Stoke | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | -1 | |
13. | Norwich | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 16 | +3 | |
14. | Everton | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -4 | |
15. | Bournemouth | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -1 | |
16. | Sunderland | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 15 | +3 | |
17. | Leicester | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -16 | |
18. | Watford | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 10 | -11 | |
19. | West Ham | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 10 | -11 | |
20. | Aston Villa | 17 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 0 |
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