Premier League: Chelsea to win by seven points? Arsenal outside top four?
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Chelsea to extend their lead? That is what super-computer SAM is predicting
A fifth Premier League title for Chelsea, the end of Arsenal's lengthy run of top-four finishes, and heartbreak for Swansea, Sunderland and Hull.
They are the verdicts of SAM (Sports Analytics Machine), the super-computer built by Ian McHale, professor of sports analytics at the University of Salford, together with his colleague Dr Tarak Kharrat.
We asked SAM to predict the outcome of every Premier League match between now and the end of the season on 21 May. The results suggest Chelsea will not surrender their five-point lead, but will instead extend it. SAM calculates Antonio Conte's men have a 64% probability of winning the title.
The Blues' 13-match winning streak ended at Tottenham last week - and SAM calculates Spurs will finish second, one point ahead of Liverpool and Manchester City.
That means Arsenal would finish outside the top four for the first time since 1995-96.
Will your team finish in the top four? | |
|---|---|
% probability calculated by SAM | |
Chelsea | 97.6% |
Tottenham | 78.7% |
Liverpool | 74% |
Man City | 67.8% |
Arsenal | 61.5% |
Man Utd | 20.3% |
But is SAM right? Do you think you can do better? Pick how you think the top 20 will finish and share your final table with your friends.
SAM's final table in full
SAM predicts just one change to the top eight between now and the end of the season - with Spurs leapfrogging Liverpool to finish second. Before their win over Chelsea, SAM had Mauricio Pochettino's team down as finishing third.
Spurs, of course, slipped to third at the end of last season, so finishing as runners-up would represent their best finish in the Premier League.
There is no movement for the bottom five but Leicester, who are 15th, are predicted to climb five places, giving their title defence an ever so slightly more respectable appearance.
SAM gives Hull, who are bottom, a 97.2% probability of going down.
SAM takes into account a wide range of factors to work out match results, looking at average performances so far and calculating what that means for the remaining fixtures. It is based on players remaining fit and continuing with their average performance levels, so an injury to Chelsea striker Diego Costa or Tottenham midfielder Dele Alli, for example, would have a significant impact on these predicted outcomes.
You can follow Professor Ian McHale on Twitter, external