Euro 2020: Are World Cup finalists Croatia heading for early exit?

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Will Luka Modric and Croatia break Scotland's hearts at Hampden?Image source, SNS
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Will Luka Modric and Croatia break Scotland's hearts at Hampden?

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From World Cup runners-up to Euro 2020 also-rans. That's the scenario facing Croatia as they approach a winner-takes-all showdown with Scotland at Hampden on Tuesday.

Anything other than victory for Zlatko Dalic's side in their final Group D fixture will seal their fate as one of the eight nations heading home early from the 24-team tournament.

It would be a major shock if the world's 14th-ranked team failed to progress to the knockout rounds - just three years on from their World Cup heroics.

With 90 nerve-ridden minutes left to spare their blushes, how have Croatia fallen from grace?

Dark horses light up World Cup

Despite a population of just four million, Croatia have a knack of punching above their weight. In their first tournament since gaining independence from Yugoslavia, they reached the last eight of Euro '96, then finished third at the World Cup two years later.

Another Euros quarter-final followed in 2008 before their sole failure to qualify in 2000. Then came the national team's greatest achievement at the World Cup in Russia three years ago.

Entering as dark horses, they showed a thoroughbred pedigree to canter through the group stage with a 100% record, scoring seven and conceding just once. The 3-0 humiliation of an Argentina side containing Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero marked the Croats as a force.

Their route through the knockout rounds showed they could battle with the best of them. Denmark and Russia were both dispatched on penalties before England were toppled in extra time despite having led the semi-final.

Lifting a first major trophy was a step too far as France triumphed 4-2 in the final, but Croatia had made their mark. Midfielder Luka Modric won the Golden Ball as player of the tournament, another prize to go with the Ballon d'Or award the same year.

Results suffer as key men depart

However, that unforgettable summer proved the end of an era for Croatia. Goalkeeper Danijel Subasic, defender Vedran Corluka and star striker Mario Mandzukic all retired from international football, while midfielder Ivan Rakitic abruptly followed suit last year. Four influential players - with 342 caps between them - gone.

Perhaps not surprisingly, results since have been mixed as coach Dalic tries to enact a partial transition.

Media caption,

Perisic strike earns Croatia point after VAR awarded Czech Republic penalty

While Croatia reached Euro 2020 by topping a relatively straightforward group ahead of Wales and Slovakia, their two Nations League campaigns brought two wins in 10 and the ignominy of a 6-0 thrashing by Spain.

They warmed up for these finals by drawing 1-1 at home with 90th-ranked Armenia before a 1-0 defeat by title contenders Belgium.

Including their two Group D outings so far, Dalic's side are four games without victory and their only two wins in 11 have come against Cyprus and Malta.

'We have to show much more against Scotland'

Modric is still around as the captain and fulcrum but, three months shy of his 36th birthday, the Real Madrid midfielder has not reached the highs of 2018.

His supporting cast isn't exactly low profile. With Chelsea's Mateo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic of Inter Milan providing midfield steel, defender Simo Vrsaljko is fresh from La Liga success with Atletico Madrid and forward options include Ante Rebic of AC Milan and Inter's Ivan Perisic.

That wealth of talent meant Croatia began the tournament with a weight of expectation, which has proved a burden so far rather than inspiration.

Dalic's men were flat and insipid in the opening 1-0 defeat to England at Wembley, and it took a half-time rethink to prompt their fightback for a point in Friday's 1-1 Hampden stalemate with the Czech Republic.

Rebic was fielded as the main striker in both matches, but has mustered just three goals in 40 caps and did not reappear after the break against the Czechs. The revamped forward line - with Dinamo Zagreb's Bruno Petkovic on and Perisic shifted to his favoured berth on the left - brought improvement.

Perisic's fine equaliser made him the first Croatia player to score in four major tournaments, having netted at the 2014 and 2018 World Cups, and 2016 Euros.

Regardless, the result left a "bitter taste" for Modric, who said his side "entered the match really disorganised".

And Perisic, 32, was blunt on his side's predicament. "We are not playing well, I don't know the reason," he said. "We have to show much more against Scotland."

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