Euro 2020: How do Scotland defeat Croatia?
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Euro 2020 on the BBC |
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Dates: 11 June-11 July. Venues: Amsterdam, Baku, Bucharest, Budapest, Copenhagen, Glasgow, London, Munich, Rome, Seville, St Petersburg. Coverage: Live on BBC TV, BBC Radio 5 Live, iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app. Click here for more details |
After a strong performance against a strong England team, Scotland will will look at Tuesday's match with Croatia as the opportunity of a lifetime.
They will go in with the belief they are capable of beating an aging Croatian team who peaked three years ago.
But how exactly can they do it?
Scotland have an abundance of energetic midfielders who can run off the Croatians in midfield. Luka Modric is still one of the best playmakers in the world but is not the most dependable defensively anymore and can often leave gaps for the opponent to play into.
Mateo Kovacic is similar in style and, again, lacks defensive awareness without a designated sitter beside him.
The defensive line is vulnerable to clever movement - Domagoj Vida, Dejan Lovren and Caleta-Car are all more comfortable defending man-to-man rather than defending space and runners. This is where the intelligent runs of Che Adams can open up space for a runner from midfield.
Playing two-v-two on the Croatian central defenders will cause them problems and create space for runs from deep. Indeed, this is something we saw against England.
This could be Lyndon Dykes playing with his back to goal, turning with Adams running to pull Vida over. John McGinn could run from deep off the shoulder of Modric into the space.
As Croatia like to apply some pressure, often the midfield does not step up together, which can cause them to be separated. A player like Callum McGregor would appreciate the space to receive and play into from areas such as this.
As the far side winger tends to be oriented towards tracking the full-back, there can often be a large space between the central midfielder and the wide midfielder, allowing for diagonal passes.
This is a ball we see McGregor looking for regularly so it's something we could exploit, getting McGinn on the ball in advanced areas with Andy Robertson overlapping down the left side.
Often when the central midfielders of Croatia can be split, they leave gaps as one moves to press when play is moved quickly. As they do not slide over quickly together, they lack compactness and can be broken by a player playing off the blindside of the midfielder who is pressing the ball.
Scotland need to be brave and take the ball in tight spaces, provoke pressure then look for the free player who can break the midfield line.
How can we prevent Croatia from attacking?
Against a 5-3-2, we have seen Croatia look to move play to one side, hit a few passes then switch to Sime Vrsaljko on the right.
This was what they did against England in the 2018 World Cup semi-final and is a feature of their play against an opponent in a 5-3-2.
At times against England, we saw Dykes and Adams drop into the space on the far side to cut off the pass to the England full-backs, who then had no inside passes.
It will be important that they continue to balance the midfield three when they slide over to defend with Stephen O'Donnell and Robertson.
Ivan Perisic has nearly 40 goals in just over 100 games for Croatia - a remarkable record for a winger. He is two-footed and likes to run in behind and cut inside to shoot off the left flank.
Scotland cannot make the mistake the Czech Republic made by leaving him one-v-one and with space inside. Pressure must be applied to force him wide or down the line.