Lithuania v Northern Ireland: Stephen Craigan on how Ian Baraclough's NI can stave off the downwards curve

Baraclough has been upbeat in the build-up to the World Cup qualifiers

Played four, won four, scored 12, conceded none.

For a generation of Northern Ireland supporters beginning to follow their country after Euro 2016, this was their introduction to competitive results at Windsor Park.

That World Cup 2018 qualification bid would ultimately end in play-off heartache against Switzerland, with the next campaign - for the Covid-delayed Euro 2020 - seeing Northern Ireland suffer a similar fate.

However, coming on the back of the history-making Euro 2016 qualification high that gripped the nation, going the full distance meant these campaigns continued the positive momentum, and ensured something of a sea-change in Northern Ireland fans' outlook. Dare to dream was the hashtag, after all.

• Dallas pulls out of NI squad for personal reasons

• Baraclough has big decisions to make

That narrative has shifted considerably in the last year. Having taken over from Michael O'Neill last summer, manager Ian Baraclough was at the helm for the Euro 2020 play-off final defeat at home to Slovakia and has won only once during 90 minutes - a friendly against Malta - in his 13 games in charge.

The majority of his eight losses have come in the Nations League or in friendlies. Failure to get a win in Thursday night's World Cup 2022 qualifier away to Lithuania, a team positioned 83 places below them in the world rankings, would be a much less palatable result for supporters, even considering the side are missing a number of key players.

Having lost 2-0 away to Italy and drawn 0-0 at home to Bulgaria in their opening two Group C games, Baraclough has not shied away from the importance of winning the encounter in Vilnius - and former NI defender Stephen Craigan believes it could be something of a defining moment for a man whose introduction to international management has not been under the easiest of circumstances.

"Sometimes in your managerial career there comes a point or a game where you think 'this is one we really need to win, this is the one where people are going to expect from me'," he said.

"The players will know themselves and the manager will know too that they have to go and win the game.

"What it means in the long term or medium term I have no idea, but certainly it would be a major disappointment if our campaign was over after matchday three, if we had played Bulgaria and Lithuania in our first three games but were out of the running in the group.

"Hopefully we will get the result that we need then can be positive about Switzerland, but everyone knows the enormity of the game and what we require from it. We are a better team than them, even with the players that are out, but the boys have to go and make it happen."

Downturn inevitable but young players have to fight it

New Preston signing Ali McCann has become a regular in Baraclough's Northern Ireland squads

While the prospect of a qualifying campaign being over at an early stage will be a new experience for the more recent recruits to the Green and White Army, those with years' worth of stamps on their season tickets will be well aware of the bigger picture.

Craigan, who himself enjoyed highs and suffered lows as a Northern Ireland player across his 54 caps, stressed the need for perspective.

"I think with a small country like ours there is going to be a fall-off and downturn in results at some time. You only have to look at the players we have lost since Euro 2016, it can take a while to adjust and get those positions filled," he explained.

"It can be a little bit unfair pointing the finger at the manager and saying results haven't been good under him - that was probably going to happen at some stage, it is just about how we respond.

"Having said that, it would be a major disappointment if we don't go to Lithuania and win. If we can't do that then we don't deserve to be in the reckoning for a World Cup place, and the manager and players will know that."

While acknowledging the challenge presented by the absence of the influential Jonny Evans and Stuart Dallas - as well as Corry Evans, Josh Magennis and George Saville - Craigan also issued a rallying call to those players who will come into the side.

"There is always this thing in dressing rooms that senior players set the standards, drive the group and carry the responsibility, but why can't the younger ones do that?" he asked.

"Don't come in and wait to see what others do, grab the bull by the horns and go and make an impact. Don't just accept that Northern Ireland have had a good spell so we are going to have a dip for a few years."

Abandon 3-5-2 and let wingers loose

Gavin Whyte has played through the middle for Northern Ireland in their opening two World Cup qualifiers

Craigan believes the players will have been aware of the must-win nature of Thursday's match from the second the final whistle sounded in their 0-0 draw against Bulgaria at Windsor Park in March.

Looking at how Northern Ireland should line up, the former Motherwell defender believes Baraclough should abandon his preferred 3-5-2 formation in order to let wingers Jordan Jones and Gavin Whyte attack Lithuania down the flanks.

"I would be inclined to go with a front three - one centre forward in Conor Washington and two wingers - with a back four and three in midfield," he explained.

"Playing a back three does seem to be his preferred formation but when you are missing Jonny, you are kind of looking around and thinking 'are you throwing a back three together for the sake of it?' just because that is what you want to do.

"I look back to the game in Bosnia [the Euro 2020 play-off semi-final which NI won on penalties after a 1-1 draw], when I thought we were really good and played with two wingers.

"When you look at the wingers we have playing in Gavin Whyte and Jordan Jones, I quite like the idea of having them getting at teams and going down the outside of them.

"Lithuania's full-backs won't be brilliant one v one, and Jones and Whyte thrive in those situations."

Won one, drawn one and lost one will need to be Northern Ireland's Group C record come late Thursday evening if the team as a whole is to have a chance to thrive in this qualifying campaign.