Tim Dellor column: Why Reading struggle when the rubber hits the road
- Published
Jeff Hendrick (left) and Tom Ince (right) are among Reading's older players propping up the team and getting a lot of minutes this season
By this stage of the season, at every club, there is a real danger of drowning in statistics.
After 28 games a mass of data has been gathered.
Despite all that, the only thing Reading fans can say with much certainty is 'expect the unexpected'.
The unpredictability of the Championship generally, and Reading's form in particular, leaves anyone foolish enough to confidently attempt predictions with a real risk of egg splattered all over their face.
Two stats are worth taking a long hard look at.
Firstly, the discrepancy between an excellent home record and a dire away record is baffling.
Surely a trip on a coach, sometimes of relatively short distance, should not make Reading's players so travel sick?
Reading have scored just 11 goals and conceded a whopping 28 in their 15 away games.
They have lost 10 on the road, which is more than any other Championship team this season.
Those stats would suggest relegation is imminent.
'Only six points outside the playoff zone'
At the Select Car Leasing Stadium, though, Reading are decent.
Only high-flying Sheffield United, Burnley and Blackburn have recorded more than Reading's eight home wins.
That record suggests promotion is around the corner.
If Reading manager Paul Ince can work out why the team is so poor away from home he may still be able to hoick them up into the end of season play-offs.
With 54 points still up for grabs, they are only six points outside the play-off zone.
They may be down in 16th, but it remains the case that whichever teams from third down to Reading hit a consistent run of wins will be the teams battling it out for promotion come May.
Are Reading lacking 'young, carefree, energetic talent?'
And so to the second stat worthy of some exploration.
Going into the most recent away game at Stoke (which, based on the previous stats, you will be unsurprised to hear they lost 4-0), Reading's players over the age of 30 had played a combined total of 11,834 minutes of Championship football this season.
It sounds a lot, and it really is.
Only Wigan's ageing squad have got more minutes from their over 30s.
Without wishing to be ageist, does this reliance on 'geriatrics', in footballing terms at least, cost Reading points?
Among Reading's key players are Andy Carroll (34), Shane Long (36), Jeff Hendrick (31), Tom Ince (31), Junior Hoilett (32), and Andy Yiadom (31).
All of them are playing a lot and exceptionally well, but it does suggest a dearth of young, carefree, energetic talent.
Fans should expect the unexpected
In the January transfer window, Reading only did one piece of business, bringing in 20-year-old Chelsea central midfielder Cesare Casadei on loan until the end of the season.
He plays in the department in which Reading have looked lightest recently, and hopefully he will bring some youthful exuberance to proceedings.
The squad really needs more players in their 20s to start firing.
Fans who only attend home games, which of course is the majority, must be thoroughly confused.
They see good performances from the older players and lots of wins for the team and must then be very surprised to see the team languishing down in 16th in the table.
What will happen in the final few months of the season?
It is anyone's guess, and anything is still possible.
After all the games played, all the analysis, all the statistics, numbers and evidence, the only thing we can really be certain of is unpredictability.
