Tim Dellor column: Can Reading pull off a great escape with Paul Ince gone?

Former Reading boss Paul Ince was fired after his side's terrible run of form that has seen them win only two games in 2023

Regardless of all the sports science, data, analysis and coaching, leadership and management qualifications, what Reading really need is a good slice of luck.

As Napoleon Bonaparte said - "I would rather have a general who was lucky than one who was good".

Reading fans will be hoping Irishman Noel Hunt, who has taken on the role until the end of the season, is a lucky general.

It may not be until teatime on 8 May Reading haul themselves above the dotted line.

Of their last five opponents this season, the last two of Wigan (at home) and Huddersfield (away) look the most winnable.

Expectations are low for the Burnley, Luton and Coventry games.

For the new manager this is the right way round.

Pressure is lower for the first couple of games, but by the time Wigan arrive he will have had a chance to get his team playing.

'Relegation would be disastrous'

Hunt is a very popular figure amongst fans and at the training ground.

His chirpy, grounded and humble attitude to life, as well as his 145 games in a Reading shirt back when the club was winning the Championship and then playing in the Premier League, immediately transports everyone back to happier times.

Now he needs to do that literally, rather than just by association.

He has experience around him.

Head of football operations Mark Bowen will be pulling the strings in the background.

His most loyal and trusted ally Eddie Niedzwiecki becomes Hunt's assistant.

That will be just as well, because Hunt's brief spell as interim manager at Swindon and assistant at Doncaster hardly qualifies him to fill the hot seat at this most crucial of times.

'A cloud of negativity'

The outlook for Reading is looking rather gloomy with five games left, including three against top Championship teams

Relegation to League One would be disastrous.

The club is based at a Premier League standard training ground, with investment in the academy and women's team to match.

They are well staffed, and as the last few annual accounts have shown, spend a lot more money than most Championship clubs.

Indeed that spending is what may well cost them their Championship status, because a six point deduction for breaking profitability and sustainability rules has dropped them from relative safety right into the mire.

Will the free-spending Chinese owners hang around if the club drops into League One? How many staff would go? What calibre of player could they attract during the summer? Without wishing to be too melodramatic, League Two would seem more likely than an immediate return to The Championship.

'Tactics were basic and blunt'

Like all sacked managers, Paul Ince will feel hard done by.

He can say the team only lost one of his final four games in charge, in that time a six point deduction dropped them into the relegation zone, there was a transfer embargo in place and the wage bill was slashed in half, and that he was a victim of his own success having got them to the top end of the Championship table for the first few months of the season.

His team was also on the wrong end of some dreadful refereeing decisions, and were hampered by an unusually high number of players out injured.

On the flip side, critics will point to his habit of flagging up all these unfortunate circumstances too regularly, thereby creating a cloud of negativity.

He was too quick to criticise his own players for mistakes at crucial stages in games.

His tactics were basic and blunt, with few ideas beyond booting the ball up for the tireless Andy Carroll.

He seemed to have no faith in the ability of his players to create chances in games, keep the ball, and ultimately turn around the slump in form.

The new Reading manager was born on Boxing Day 1982.

We will have a very Happy Noel, if he turns out to be Reading's saviour.

If he is very lucky one win may be enough.

He will probably need two wins.

If he is unlucky he may need as many as three wins from the final five games.

• Listen to BBC Radio Berkshire's Reading FC podcast, here.

• How will Reading navigate points deduction? Read Tim Dellor's insight and analysis, here.

• Reading FC launch new kit with climate change design, here.