Portsmouth: After a perfect Tuesday without even playing, what is Pompey's magic number?
- Published
With a seven-point lead in the race for automatic promotion to the Championship with 11 games remaining, John Mousinho's side are firm favourites to go up
Can you have the perfect matchday without even playing? It felt a bit like that for Portsmouth on Tuesday, with both Derby and Bolton losing games in hand. The top of League One now looks even better.
It feels like I've written a few times this season comparing the current campaign to those of the past few years. But we've reached the point where there isn't really a comparison. Automatic promotion has never seemed within reach heading into March.
In 2019 Pompey ended February five points adrift of the top two, but were on a run of eight games without a win. In 2020 they were well beaten by Ivan Toney's Peterborough in early March before Covid hit. In both seasons automatic promotion seemed possible, but a long shot.
This time it's Portsmouth in the driving seat. Seven points clear of Derby County and the same number ahead of Bolton Wanderers, who have a game in hand. There's still work to do but everyone else would happily swap places with Pompey. Especially as those teams seem to be faltering at a key moment. Barnsley are also now very much in the race for the top two.
It feels rare for Portsmouth to have a fairly light fixture list towards the end of the season, it hasn't really happened since the 2017-18 campaign. Some of that is circumstance. It certainly wasn't a masterplan to get knocked out of the FA Cup or EFL Trophy at an early stage this season.
However the club made a concerted effort to rearrange postponed matches as quickly as realistically possible. Agreeing to travel to Barnsley just days before a tricky trip to Derby in September was a gutsy decision that paid off.
Other managers are more reluctant and particular about when fixtures are rearranged. Points on the board over games in hand was what Pompey wanted to have and it is now looking like a smart strategy.
Since three points for a win was introduced to English football in 1981, no team outside Sheffield has reached 90 points in the third tier without winning automatic promotion.
Sheffield United finished third in 2012 and lost on penalties in the play-off final. Last season their neighbours Wednesday earned a whopping 96 points before needing possibly the most dramatic play-off campaign ever seen to ensure their place in the Championship.
Taking 17 points from their final 11 matches would take the Blues to 90 points. That seems very achievable given how things are going. Currently - based on points per game - Bolton are on course for 89, Barnsley 88 and Derby 87. History might argue that three sides won't all reach 90 points, but you sense they will probably be fairly close.
Averaging two points per game from here would take Portsmouth to 95 points, which will surely be enough. They still need to play the five sides directly beneath them, but there is no reason for Pompey to fear anyone at the moment - even though it's not an easy run-in.
My guess is that 92 would be enough, but it would only take two other sides to hit great form for even that to be precarious. The chasing pack have slipped up in recent weeks, but they are still in the rear view mirror. Winning the division would be nice but a place in the top two and automatic promotion is all that really matters.
Crucially Portsmouth have found form themselves after their January blip. Three of their past four wins have been by at least two goals. They have players you trust to make the right decisions in crucial moments of big matches, and a head coach who has passed every examination thrown at him so far.
The only worry is the strength of the squad in certain places. Joe Rafferty, the centre-half pairing of Conor Shaughnessy and Sean Raggett and captain Marlon Pack in midfield have all had outstanding seasons.
Right now though there is no backup in central midfield or right-back. Zak Swanson can cover both positions and might be available in the next couple of weeks, but he's not played since December. It would be a lot to ask him step up immediately. Another injury in a key position would be very worrying.
Right now slipping into the play-offs would feel like a failure, and that's even before you get into Portsmouth's play-off record (they've never won a match in four campaigns).
It's going to be a nervy final two months but this time Portsmouth aren't the outsiders, they are the favourites.
It's too early to put the champagne on ice, but perhaps at least make sure there's a bottle at the back of the cupboard somewhere...
You can hear every Pompey match live on BBC Radio Solent with Andy Moon and former Blues striker and manager Guy Whittingham.
