Why Scottish clubs will soon feel pain of European failures

Scotland's Uefa coefficient has taken a battering over the last few years and the consequences are about to be felt.

Likely Premiership winners Celtic are not guaranteed an automatic berth in next season's Champions League.

Instead, they will have to negotiate a play-off round to earn a place among the elite. And Scotland's runners up will have three rounds to get though.

The pain will increase further the following season, too.

Next year's Scottish Cup winners or third placed Premiership side will no longer be guaranteed league-phase football.

How has this happened?

Title-winners from nations outside Uefa's top 10 do not have direct entry to the Champions League and have to go through the qualifiers.

Since 2021, Scotland have been in that coveted bracket, with Rangers' run to the Europa League final the campaign after further strengthening that position.

However, the disappointing 2022-23 season hugely damaged Scotland's five-year average and has caused them to slip down the table.

Mercifully, the success of Celtic and Rangers in this campaign has ensured that figure will actually rise for next term despite the loss of the 2020-21 points.

But retaining that top-10 slot always seemed unlikely given Scotland started this season in 17th place.

And even hopes of securing the top-12 place that guarantees three clubs in the league stages have now been scuppered after Molde's Europa League win over Legia Warsaw last week moved Norway out of reach in 12th.

That means that, while the likes of Aberdeen, Hearts, Hibernian and Dundee United still have the lucrative chance of multiple continental contests next season, qualifiers would need to be overcome to reap the rewards the following year.

Is there any good news?

There is some light amid the gloom, yes.

Rangers 3-1 win over Fenerbahce in Turkey has gone a long way to protecting a place in Uefa's top 15.

With that, comes five places in Europe and two in the Champions League, albeit starting in the qualifiers.

But to begin climbing above the likes of Turkey, Greece, Norway and Austria and back towards that top 10, clubs from outside of Glasgow's big two will have to do their bit.

This term - broadly in keeping with other recent seasons - more than 75% of Scotland's 44.25 ranking points have come from Celtic and Rangers.

But the nations sitting above Scotland have third, fourth or even fifth teams making inroads in these tournaments and winning games on a consistent basis.