Luton's worst EFL start for 22 years... what's gone wrong?

Luton have made their worst start to an EFL season since 2002

Just over a year ago, Luton Town were riding high off the back of an excellent Premier League victory away at Everton - their first top-flight win since 1992.

The Hatters went on to play their part in some pulsating games last season including a 4-4 thriller at Newcastle, holding Liverpool to a draw and thrashing Brighton 4-0 at Kenilworth Road.

Rob Edwards was a manager rightly being lauded for working a minor miracle by completing Luton’s remarkable journey to the top tier and was rewarded with a new four-year deal despite relegation.

But how quickly things can change in football.

After suffering their worst start to an EFL season for 22 years, Luton are 21st in the Championship with eight points - just one place and one point above the drop zone.

Luton have been without club captain Tom Lockyer since his cardiac arrest in December 2023, while Ross Barkley, Andros Townsend and Gabriel Osho were among those who left the club in the summer.

But many of the Championship squad which won promotion to the Premier League nearly 18 months ago, such as Elijah Adebayo, Alfie Doughty and stand-in skipper Jordan Clark, are still at the heart of the side.

The likes of goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski, midfielder Tahith Chong and defender Teden Mengi have also been retained from last year.

So what has gone wrong so far this season and how can Edwards turn it around?

Striker Elijah Adebayo hasn't scored a goal this season for Luton, who are 21st in the Championship

On the face of it, Luton’s problems are plain and simple for all to see.

"We’ve not scored enough goals and not kept enough clean sheets," former Luton defender Leon Barnett told BBC Three Counties Radio’s sport show.

Luton have scored just eight times. Only bottom side Cardiff and Preston North End have managed fewer.

They are also leaking goals with only the bottom three sides conceding more than the 15 the Hatters have shipped.

But the underlying metrics would suggest Luton have been either slightly unlucky or not executing efficiently enough at both ends of the pitch.

They have produced 11 expected goals - three higher than their actual tally - and striker Adebayo, who netted 10 times in the Premier League last season, is yet to score in this campaign.

The 26-year-old is now without a goal in his last 12 league games stretching back to last season.

"I think both strikers have not hit the ground running," said Barnett. "I’m sure they are disappointed more than anybody else that they’re not getting the goals."

Meanwhile, Luton have also let in five more than their expected goals against (10.1), which may imply opposition players have been particularly clinical.

Analysing numbers alone won't solve all the issues, though, and Edwards has stressed it will take "hard work on the training pitch" to put things right.

'I'm not trying to hide from it'

Luton have scored eight goals in the Championship this season - only Preston (seven) and Cardiff (four) have fewer

“It’s on me, I’ve got to fix it," Edwards told BBC Three Counties Radio after the 2-0 defeat away at Sheffield United left Luton with just two wins from nine.

“We’ve got to work hard, we’ve got to stick together and turn this around - and really it will be results that will determine that."

Luton host Watford in a vital M1 derby this Saturday lunchtime (12:30 BST) and Edwards was hoping to use the international break to "fix some of the issues".

"I see it (the Watford game) as an opportunity for us," said Edwards. "There's no excuse in that one to not win challenges, not compete and not win duels."

Edwards also accepts the fans are "frustrated" at the moment and "want better performances".

"We've got to try and improve," he added. "I'm not trying to hide from it."

Barnett said Luton "have not really shown" the "aggressive high press" they deployed in the Championship two years ago and also challenged the players to take responsibility.

“A lot of people blame the manager but I think ultimately, as soon as the boys cross that white line and get onto the pitch, it’s down to them to deliver,” he added.

Luton had 10 points after nine games in their previous two Championship seasons and finished in the play-off spots on both occasions

The Luton Town Supporters' Trust podcast host Kevin Harper said it is clear that Edwards "cares" deeply about the club but wants him to simplify the team's style of play.

"He probably cares too much, he takes it home with him," Harper said on the latest show.

"He’s looked a forlorn figure in recent press conferences so you can’t say he doesn’t care.

"But by the same token, it’s too complex. Just keep it simple. Let’s just play some normal football.

"This fancy stuff was nice in the Premier League when you had Ross Barkley, but you’ve got to play to the capabilities of what these boys have right now."

Luton fan and journalist James Cunliffe told the podcast: "It’s not about tactics at the moment, it’s about application and effort and fight.

"Maybe the fact the fans were singing ‘Edwards, sort it out’ is a large majority realisation that he is staying and maybe that is a positive."

Defender Reece Burke said Luton are "giving away too many chances"

Centre-back Reece Burke believes Luton have got "more than enough" to improve but said they need to be "horrible to play against".

"At the moment, we’re too nice and we need to start showing a bit of fight in games," Burke told BBC Three Counties Radio.

"I know we’ve got a good team and we shouldn’t be in the position we are now.

"We need to go back to doing the basics well and especially at home make it difficult for the opposition to come and play.

"The main thing for us is trying to keep positive. Being negative and keeping our heads down isn't going to change anything."

If there is a glimmer of hope for Luton, it is that Edwards is no stranger to the situation he finds himself in.

After nine games of the 2022-23 season, Luton had just 10 points before Edwards was appointed and went on to win promotion to the Premier League, so he does have precedent for turning things around.

The previous year, Luton had exactly the same record at this stage under Nathan Jones and also recovered to finish in the play-off spots.

Whether their trajectory is different this time remains to be seen but as history tells us, the rise, fall and rise again can happen very quickly in football.