Why Nations League has World Cup implications for Wales

Wales drew their penultimate group game 0-0 in Turkey on Saturday to remain unbeaten under Craig Bellamy

The Nations League climax could mean the world to Wales – with the route to North America in 2026 dependent upon it.

Manager Craig Bellamy has hailed the competition as the perfect testing ground for his new era, with the real ambition to lead his country to a major finals.

But the path to the World Cup in two years' time is intertwined with Wales' fate in the final round of games – and perhaps beyond, with play-offs now a possibility in the Nations League's revamped format.

And how Wales finish this current campaign could even decide when their road to 2026 begins.

What's changed?

In past years, teams could only win Nations League promotion by finishing top of their group – as Wales did in 2020 to earn a place in League A.

Now there is a second chance via the play-offs, with teams finishing second in League B taking on teams finishing third from League A over two legs. The winners will secure a spot in the top tier for the next Nations League in 2026-27, with the losers placed in League B.

Similarly, there are also new relegation play-offs, with the teams third in their groups in League B playing-off against the runners-up from League C groups.

The current state of play

After Saturday's 0-0 draw in Turkey, Wales are second in Group B4 heading into the final matchday.

Standing on nine points, they are two points behind leaders Turkey and two points ahead of Iceland, who they host on Tuesday while bottom side Montenegro – already relegated to League C – welcome the Turks.

Wales have to beat Iceland to have any chance of finishing top.

A Wales victory and a Montenegro win over Turkey will see Bellamy's side win the group.

If Wales win and Turkey draw with Montenegro, both will finish on 12 points. With head-to-heads equal, it could come down to goal difference – with Turkey three goals better off.

In other words, Wales would need to win by four.

Turkey also lead Wales by three on the next tie-breaker - goals scored.

There is a scenario – if Turkey are held to a goalless draw and Wales win 3-0 – that the group could be decided by disciplinary points or Nations League seeding from the original draw.

If Wales draw they will finish second, while defeat would see Iceland leapfrog them with Craig Bellamy’s side finishing third.

Why does it affect the World Cup?

The expanded, 48-nation 2026 showpiece in Canada, Mexico and the USA may seem like a long way off, but European qualifying begins next year – the draw for which is set to take place on 13 December.

And where Wales finish in the Nations League could have two key bearings on how that road to the World Cup shapes up.

Most significantly, finishing top in the Nations League opens up the chance of getting a World Cup qualifying play-off spot.

With an increased 16 European teams qualifying, 12 places will be given to the winners of the 12 groups.

There will be four on offer via the play-offs, which will involve 16 teams: the 12 group runners-up, and the four best-ranked Nations League group winners who did not finish in the top two of their World Cup group.

In other words, with the majority of Nations League group winners from League A likely to either qualify directly, or earn a runners-up spot, finishing among the top sides in League B puts you in a very strong position to take a World Cup play-off place.

What if Wales don't win their group?

Not only will Wales' World Cup play-off chances diminish – and depend just on that campaign - but the Nations League play-offs mean it could also decide when and how Wales' World Cup campaign will shape up.

Those campaigns are set to take place between March and November 2025, with 12 groups of either four or five teams battling it out.

However, if Wales end up in a Nations League play-off then they will not start until either June or September 2025.

Teams in the promotion and relegation play-offs from League B – as well as the Nations League finalists – will be prioritised to be in a four-team group to start in September.

Put simply, if Wales do not overcome Turkey in the Nations League, their group campaign for the World Cup could well be a six-game shoot-out over two months next autumn, or they face kicking off the campaign with two key games in June at the end of a long domestic season.

What happens if Wales finish top?

Wales will be promoted to League A for the 2026-27 Nations League and are likely to start their World Cup qualifying campaign in a five team group in March.

They will also significantly boost chances of a World Cup play-off spot even if they don't finish in the top two of their qualifying group.

Furthermore, being in League A would also give them a very good chance of a Euro 2028 play-off spot – as happened last year under Robert Page when Wales faced Finland and Poland despite finishing third in their qualifying group.

What happens if Wales finish second?

They will face a promotion play-off over two legs in March, with the home tie first.

Potential League A opponents are Belgium (from Group A2), Hungary (A3), one of Croatia, Poland and Scotland (A1), or one of Denmark or Serbia (A4).

They are likely to be second seeds in a four-team World Cup qualifying group that starts in September – or be in a five-team group that starts in June.

What happens if Wales finish third?

They will face a relegation play-off over two legs in March, with the away tie first.

Potential League C opponents would be Slovakia (from Group C1), Armenia (C4), one of Northern Ireland, Bulgaria or Belarus (C3), or Romania or Kosovo (C2).

They are likely to be second seeds in a four-team World Cup qualifying group that starts in September - or be in a five-team group that starts in June.

The draw for the Nations League play-offs takes place on 22 November in Nyon.