99.9% likely to win League One - so when will Birmingham go up?

Chris Davies has been on the coaching staff at Tottenham Hotspur, Swansea City, Liverpool, Celtic and Leicester City

"The reality is we're too good for League One".

If you had read this after Birmingham City's 2-1 win against Stevenage on Tuesday - a result that moved them 14 points clear at the top of the table - you would have merely nodded and perhaps responded with 'tell me something I don't know'.

But that quote was not said after Tuesday.

It was not said last week, nor last month.

It was uttered back in September by defender Krystian Bielik after Blues had won six of their first seven games to establish an early lead of just two points.

It may have been the type of hyperbole laden with Hogwarts-level haunting potential, but the Pole knew what he was talking about.

Birmingham City have been proving they are too good and, barring a collapse of historic proportions, it will not be long before plans for next season can be inked into Championship diaries across Small Heath.

As the club's famous song demands: "Keep right on 'til the end of the road" and that end - the Championship - is just around the corner.

According to statisticians Opta, Blues are 99.9% likely to win the League One title.

So it is not a matter of if City will be promoted, but when exactly?

No team in League One history has failed to win the title with a lead as big as Birmingham's current 14 points

The table looks pretty rosy for Blues who can watch their nearest rivals Wycombe and Wrexham, both on 68 points, go head to head on Saturday as they nip down the M1 to play Northampton Town.

If Wrexham were to win their 10 remaining games they would get to 98 points.

Wycombe have a game in hand, as do Blues, so could reach 101, or 98 if they lose to the Dragons.

If Wrexham max out, Birmingham, currently on 82 points, need 17 points from 11 games to guarantee the job. Six wins.

With the trip to Stevenage on 22 March set to be postponed because of international call-ups, champagne corks will be popping at home to Crawley on Good Friday, 18 April, if Blues happen to win the next half-dozen games.

But it could happen sooner of course.

If Wrexham were to lose their next three games - or take only one point - and Blues win their next three, City will clinch promotion at home at Bristol Rovers on 1 April - in just 18 days.

If they managed that, they would have eight games remaining. That's one long party.

What targets are Birmingham chasing?

Birmingham have never looked back from their blistering start and their record stacks up well against other successful promotion campaigns in League One over the last decade.

In the last 12 full seasons (not counting the Covid-curtailed 2019-20 campaign) Blues are on course to match Charlton (2011-12), Wolves (2013-14), Sheffield United (2016-17) and Plymouth (2022-23) in breaking the 100-points barrier, with Wolves' haul of 103 the record for the third tier.

They are seven wins away from breaking Wolves' and the Pilgrims' best of 31 victories in a season.

On average, 91 points has been enough to secure promotion in the last 10 full seasons, with Blues nine away from that mark.

If they can maintain their 14-point lead by the end of the campaign, that would equal the Blades' record gap to second place from their title-winning run in 2016-17.

Only two other teams - Luton in 2004-05 (12) and Swansea in 2007-08 (10) - have won the League One title with double-figure comfort.

It is not all about winning the title though, promotion is the main thing.

If Blues were to blow it, but still finish second, it would be the biggest surrender of a lead in League One history.

At the moment, Birmingham City are virtual certainties to be League One champions

How 'relentless' Blues have done it

It was all very different a year ago.

On 16 March, 2024 Birmingham were running on fumes, hovering above the Championship relegation zone on goal difference having just lost at home to Watford in Tom Cleverley's first game in charge of the Hornets.

Blues' chaotic managerial situation, following the sackings of John Eustace and Wayne Rooney and Tony Mowbray's health issues, was about to be given some stability with the arrival of interim boss Gary Rowett.

But that did not halt the slide and relegation to the third tier for the first time in nearly 30 years.

Who would be tasked with the rebuild and restoration project?

Step forward former Tottenham coach Chris Davies into his first managerial role.

And what a maiden season he has enjoyed.

"Birmingham's progress under rookie boss Chris Davies is best described as relentless," said BBC Radio WM Sports Editor, and Birmingham City reporter, Richard Wilford.

"He installed his style of play during pre-season, and while there are little wrinkles here and there, they have largely stuck with it unerringly.

"Ball dominant, keen to press out of possession, high-energy full-backs often inverted – there is no denying that Blues have a recognisable system. And they are good at it."

What have been the key performances?

Having owners with deep pockets, and an even deeper commitment to redeveloping the club on and off the field, helps - as the record transfer of striker Jay Stansfield illustrates.

But you still have to produce the goods and former Fulham forward Stansfield's 16 league goals have given Blues the ruthless point of difference every successful promotion challenge needs.

Seven goals in his first 10 League One appearances set the tone as Davies moulded a side prepared to be patient and clinical when it mattered.

"Once the squad had settled in September the story has become increasingly familiar," Wilford added.

"At St Andrew's, visiting teams have been forced to chase the ball for long periods, and while chances are not necessarily plentiful you always get the sense that sooner or later one moment of quality will settle the game.

"When opponents have come to play, Davies' side has shown a more up-tempo version of itself, as demonstrated by the come-from-behind wins over Peterborough and then Wrexham amidst the Hollywood hoopla."

Doing the double over nearest challengers Wycombe and taking four points off Wrexham is obviously impressive but so has been Blues' ability to respond immediately to setbacks. Not that there have been many.

Jay Stansfield has scored 21 goals so far this season, with 16 coming in Birmingham's charge to promotion in League One

They have only lost three times - all away from home - against Charlton, Shrewsbury and Bolton, but have won their next game each time, ensuring momentum was never lost.

That defeat at Shrewsbury on 23 November was a key moment.

Played in blustery conditions on a sodden pitch, they were beaten 3-2 in Town head coach Gareth Ainsworth's debut win.

"Blues allowed themselves to be bullied a bit that Saturday lunchtime," Wilford recalled. "They let Shrewsbury play the game on their terms. But that 3-2 defeat was a watershed moment.

"An 18-game unbeaten league run immediately followed, including a significant victory over Barnsley at Oakwell. That was another wind-swept occasion, and City trailed with 20 minutes to go.

"But Jay Stansfield put his team on his shoulders with a thunderbolt of an equaliser and then a close-range winner. They have not really looked like a soft touch since."

Birmingham's 3-2 defeat by Shrewsbury Town is one of only three losses so far

More walk-in than run-in?

Talking of Barnsley, it may well be the Tykes who are the guests when Blues seal promotion in the return game at St Andrew's on Saturday, 5 April.

Barnsley, in 10th, are the highest-placed team that Birmingham face over their last 11 games.

With three of the current bottom four, plus struggling Mansfield to come for Davies' side, City will also have a big say on who goes down.

You get the sense it could be more of a walk-in than a run-in.

15 March: Northampton Town [11th] - A

29 March: Shrewsbury Town [24th] - H

1 April: Bristol Rovers [17th] - A

5 April: Barnsley [10th] - H

8 April: Peterborough [20th] - A

18 April: Crawley [22nd] - H

21 April: Burton Albion [21st] - A

26 April: Mansfield Town [18th] - H

3 May: Cambridge United [23rd] - A

tbc: Stevenage [12th] - A

tbc: Blackpool [11th] - A

'Easy to underestimate Davies'

When promotion happens, thoughts will inevitably turn to next season and Birmingham's chances of returning to the Premier League.

Davies likes to drill the mantra "step by step" into his players as he steers the club back towards the second tier.

Critics may point out Birmingham's spending power and the global profile of its owners make Davies' job easier.

While that is hard to argue against, it is also worth pointing out such preconceptions can make it tough for a manger's impact to break through in the wider consciousness.

"Davies seems only to receive grudging credit outside the confines of the West Midlands," Wilford said.

"His first manager-of-the-month award only arrived after a 13-point February. It is easy to point to the playing budget and look at Blues' Championship quality recruitment and underestimate what he has achieved in year one.

"Birmingham City fans had lived through a decade of relegation scraps, off-field chaos and decline.

"Now, they have ambitious and credible owners who have backed a young coach who shows an astonishing work ethic, a clear footballing strategy and an impressive ability to motivate.

"Many will wait to judge how he operates in the Championship. It is hard to imagine that Davies and the club won't rise to that challenge very well too."

Back in September, Krystian Bielik went on to say that Birmingham "would be a Championship club again in six months".

That is this month. He won't be far out.

BBC Sport was speaking to BBC Radio WM Sports Editor Richard Wilford.