Man Utd v Arsenal: Key stats before Sunday's game

It is one of football's oldest cliches, but in the case of Manchester United and Arsenal this season, the league table really does not lie.

For Arsenal, one point from their past two games means they are extremely unlikely to reel in league leaders Liverpool and face the disappointing prospect of finishing second for a third straight season.

For United, it has been a historically miserable season, marooned in 14th place, still waiting to win back-to-back Premier League games and contemplating their worst points record in the competition.

And yet according to the underlying numbers, neither side can have any complaints.

Arsenal beat Man Utd 2-0 in the Premier League in December, but 10-man United knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup third round on penalties after a 1-1 draw, in January.

Why the league table is a fair reflection

• Arsenal's goal difference of +28 is second best.

• The difference between their expected goals (xG) and xG against is 20.3 (second best).

• They have won the second highest number of points with 54.

Beyond being second, they are down in almost every metric on this time in 2023-24, where they had 61 points after 27 games.

Their shot conversion rate is also worse than last season but, despite valid criticism about the lack of a striker, only Brentford and Liverpool have proved more efficient at putting the ball in the net.

However, it is only in goals conceded that Arsenal have matched their 2023-24 record – and they remain the best defence in the Premier League in that regard.

As for United, their goal difference demonstrates their position is correct:

• United's goal difference of -6 is 15th in the league.

• The difference between their xG and xG against is -5.9 (15th).

• They are 15th in the Premier League with 33 points, but level with West Ham in 16th

In fact, when looking at the attacking numbers, only Southampton, Crystal Palace and West Ham have a poorer shot conversion rate than United's 9.3%.

Problems in attack are mirrored at the back even though there has been partial improvement this season.

Ruben Amorim's side have actually faced far fewer shots than at this stage in 2023-24 – and a smaller number than high-flying Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Aston Villa.

However, a higher percentage of those shots are going in as United have conceded the same number (39) as they had by this point last season.

Arsenal 'dominant' over Man Utd in 2024-25

Arsenal have won their past four Premier League games against United – the longest such streak in the history of this rivalry – but did lose on penalties to Amorim's 10-man side in the FA Cup in January.

The underlying numbers still suggest a United victory in their third-round tie was unexpected.

Mikel Arteta's side were dominant in almost all metrics, as they had been in the league encounter a month previously, only to find United's second-choice keeper Altay Bayindir inspired as he denied the Gunners.

• Across the two games, Arsenal's expected goals was 5.3 and United's 0.5

• Arsenal had 13 shots on target to United's six

• The Gunners managed 15 successful crosses to just two from United.

In fact, the only area where Amorim's side laid a blow was in fouls, committing 50% more than their opponents.

"It's a big club which has struggled a little bit but we know the quality they have when they're really on it," said Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard. "They have a lot of good individual players that we have to be ready for.

"But we go there to win. We're Arsenal and we're not scared. There's always more to play for at the end of the season but every game in this league is so important from the start to the end."

Additional data journalism by Chris Collinson, BBC Sport Statistician