GAA All-Ireland Football semi-finals: 'In-form Dublin & Kerry will have too much for Ulster counties'

The All-Ireland quarter-finals were going to go one of two ways. Either a couple of surprise results would blow the championship wide open or the favourites, Dublin and Kerry, would lay down a marker.

It turned out to be the latter.

Great teams have a habit of peaking for the biggest games, and having watched Kerry and Dublin take Tyrone and Mayo apart respectively, they appear to have rediscovered their best form at the perfect time.

Dublin and Kerry, as they have done so often down the years, showed they mean business as we roll into semi-finals weekend.

The Dubs and the Kingdom gave us a thrilling All-Ireland semi-final last year, but can Derry and Monaghan prevent a rematch from happening in this year's decider?

• All-Ireland Football semi-finals - BBC coverage details

'Dubs should have too much for Monaghan'

This is going to be an almighty challenge for Monaghan. Dublin haven't always been the most convincing so far this season, but they really clicked into gear against Mayo.

I was particularly impressed by Dublin's aggression and energy in defence. Stephen Cluxton's kick-outs were on-point and they were able to break Mayo down through the likes of Cormac Costello, Con O'Callaghan, Paul Mannion and Colm Basquel, who hit 2-2 in an outstanding display.

Consider, too, the players Dublin brought off the bench. Jack McCaffrey, Ciaran Kilkenny, Dean Rock. Elite championship players who illustrate the depth of this Dublin panel.

With Monaghan expected to drop off and defend, Dessie Farrell may even opt to start McCaffrey on Saturday and get as many minutes into his legs as possible and utilise his pace and attacking ability from deep.

If Dublin play like they did against Mayo, there's only going to be one winner. I expect the likes of Brian Fenton, James McCarthy and co. to put a serious squeeze on Rory Beggan's kick-out. If Dublin are effective in this regard, it will be difficult for Monaghan to get enough possession to put the Dubs' defence under any sort of sustained pressure.

Colm Basquel has been in excellent form for Dublin

There was plenty of talk about Conor McManus following Monaghan's quarter-final win over Armagh. He came off the bench and showed his class with a late free in extra-time to force the shootout, but I'd expect Jack McCarron to start against Dublin on Saturday with McManus again kept in reserve by Vinny Corey.

The important thing for Monaghan is keeping Dublin within their grasp before McManus enters the fray.

The Monaghan teams I faced down the years - especially when they were managed by Malachy O'Rourke - were always really well set up tactically. Yes, they might perform poorly at times, but never seemed to go too far wrong in their structure and match-ups and I would expect Vinny Corey to have Monaghan organised in similar fashion this weekend.

They've been structured in attack this year, and while McManus has been used as an impact player, Conor McCarthy, Karl O'Connell and Stephen O'Hanlon have all been key cogs in attack.

McCarthy and O'Connell have shown All-Star level form but I expect Dublin to be wise to that. Farrell may well put John Small on McCarthy and James McCarthy on O'Connell.

If Dublin neutralise those two players, it's difficult to see Monaghan getting enough scores to knock Dublin out of the championship.

Prediction: Dublin to win by six points or more.

'Hard to see Derry stopping the Kingdom juggernaut'

Kerry's 12-point win over Tyrone felt like a big statement from the reigning All-Ireland champions.

I had serious questions about Kerry's defensive hunger and intensity this year, but they emphatically answered their critics by blowing Tyrone away with a performance built on efficient attacking and an insatiable appetite in defence: closing space, tracking runners, not giving Tyrone an inch.

We had actually expected that approach from Tyrone but it was Kerry who brought it, essentially beating Tyrone at their own game.

There was never any doubting Kerry's attacking class, but now that they seem to have their defence in order for the first time all year, it's going to take a massive effort for anyone to stop them winning back-to-back All-Irelands.

I expect Derry will give it a good crack on Sunday. The Oak Leaf county are in the same semi-final position as last year. Credit where credit's due, they've done exceptionally well to secure Division One promotion, retain their Ulster title and reach the All-Ireland semi-finals for the second year in a row, but I feel they have lacked the same energy in their play over the past four-to-six weeks.

And Derry certainly have the components to trouble Kerry. In terms of match-ups, you could see Chrissy McKaigue on David Clifford, Conor McCluskey on Paudie Clifford and Eoin McEvoy or Padraig McGrogan on Sean O'Shea.

Conor McCluskey (right) is one of Derry's key man-markers having held Galway star Shane Walsh (left) scoreless from play in last year's All-Ireland semi-final

Derry have better man-markers and a more reliable defensive structure than Tyrone. They should manage to keep Kerry's scores down, but on the flip side they will need their best attacking performance to date and goals to win this match.

Shane McGuigan won't have as quiet a game as he had in the quarter-final against Cork, but can Ethan Doherty, Ciaran McFaul, Paul Cassidy and Niall Loughlin contribute enough to really worry Kerry? I'm just not sure they'll have enough against this rejuvenated Kerry defence.

The middle of the field will be another key area. Conor Glass and Brendan Rogers are a formidable midfield unit for Derry, but I'm expecting Kerry to really go after Odhran Lynch's kick-outs.

Lynch's kick-outs can be a real weapon for Derry, but if the likes of Diarmuid O'Connor - outstanding against Tyrone - disrupt that, it's difficult to see the Ulster champions reaching their first All-Ireland final in 30 years.

The template has been set for Kerry. Look at how Armagh played against Derry in the Ulster final, or Dublin in the Division Two final or Galway in last year's All-Ireland semi-final. Defend strongly against the Ulster champions and Kerry should be able to rely on their forwards to do the business and drive them into another All-Ireland final.

Prediction: Kerry to win by two or three points.

Tipping Down for Tailteann Cup glory

While I can't see much success for the Ulster counties in the semi-finals, I'm tipping Down to put the finishing touches on an impressive 2023 with victory over Meath in the Tailteann Cup final.

Down are definitely building something exciting. It didn't shock me to see them putting 8-16 past Laois in the semi-final. Every time I've watched them this year, they've looked goal-hungry.

They have a strong, pacy running game and play a refreshing brand of football. Liam Kerr got three goals against Laois, Danny Magill scored two and Pat Havern bagged one, and they all have similar physical attributes, while in Odhran Murdock they have one of the most promising young midfielders in the country.

Conor Laverty and Marty Clarke have done a great job driving the county forward, and I know Jim McGuinness has been around there too, so with a strong backroom team leading a hungry group of players and supporters, I'm expecting to see Mourne celebrations at Croke Park for them on Saturday.

Meath have a couple of old-school forwards in Jordan Morris and Mathew Costello who tend to stay up front, and I think Down can exploit that when they have the ball and ultimately have too much for them.

• Listen: The GAA Social - Dion Dublin's introduction to GAA