Six Nations 2021: 'Scotland must thrive on expectation to rewrite record books again'

Scotland regained the Calcutta Cup with a first away win over England in 38 years last weekend

Over the past year Gregor Townsend's Scotland team have steadily rewritten the kind of history that desperately needed to be rewritten.

As the world and its mother now knows they won in Wales for the first time in 18 years, they won at Twickenham for the first time in 38 years, they won four championship games in a row for the first time in 31 years.

At Murrayfield on Saturday there's a chance to add another layer to this. It's been 37 years since Scotland last won five straight games in this tournament - five nations or six - but that's what they're aiming for against a Wales side so depleted they might well fetch-up in a fleet of ambulances, sirens roaring.

To put this weekend into further historical context, Scotland have only won five consecutive championship matches twice since the beginning of the 1900s. The only other time they did it was in 1925-1926 when, perhaps, Stuart Hogg's great-great grandparents were around to see it.

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And what a chance they have to build on the excellence of Twickenham. Scotland have suffered the cruel loss of Jamie Ritchie's intensity, Cam Redpath's creativity and Sean Maitland's aerial quality, but compared to the jinx that's befallen Wales, Townsend is a lucky man. Wayne Pivac has lost five of the starting line-up that just about saw off 14-man Ireland and nine of his original Six Nations squad.

A staggering 21 players who have featured under Pivac in the last year are not available. Chillingly, six of them are out with concussion/brain injury. There is some kind of weird hex on the Welsh number six jersey right now. Dan Lydiate wore it against Ireland and got injured early. Josh Navidi was in line to replace him, but he's had to withdraw. Josh MacLeod was selected but he broke down in training and now Aaron Wainwright is the guy with not so much a number on his back as a target. Ross Moriarty, James Davies and Aaron Shingler are three other Welsh blindsides unavailable to Pivac.

2018 a cautionary tale

On all evidence, Scotland should win. They have more class, more confidence, more cunning. But all these tales of fallen Dragons conjure up a cautionary tale of 2018, a sobering experience that seven of Townsend's squad for Saturday will remember only too well. You get ahead of yourself in this game and you're doomed.

Three years ago, on Six Nations opening day, Scotland went to Cardiff on the back of summer and autumn wins over the Wallabies and a narrow defeat to the All Blacks. They were flying. Wales were crucified by injury. There were missing 12 frontline players, of which eight were Lions the previous year in New Zealand and of the eight, seven were Test Lions.

Sam Warburton was out. So, too, Jonathan Davies, George North, Liam Williams, Dan Biggar, Rhys Webb and Taulupe Faletau. Their Lions captain, their greatest player, their greatest finisher, their classiest runner, their half-backs and their biggest ball-carrier - all wiped out. And still, with 10 Scarlets in their starting line-up, they took the Scots to the cleaners.

A lot has changed, of course. Scotland have been on the up and Wales, post Warren Gatland, have been heading in the opposite direction. They've won four matches in a year, two against Italy, one against Georgia and one against Ireland last weekend. Sunday in Cardiff was a mighty struggle for them even when playing against 14 for much of it.

Even allowing for their red card, Ireland bossed possession, made twice as many metres with ball in hand as Wales, pressured the hosts into four lost lineouts and made them make a stratospheric 245 tackles. The extraordinary Justin Tipuric made 29 of them. The incomparable Alun Wyn Jones made 23.

We can't be certain about these things, but had Peter O'Mahony not lost the plot and got himself sent off then Ireland would surely have won. As it is, though, Wales are coming to Edinburgh with slightly less psychological baggage. The victory has relieved a bit of stress. Shorn of class they undoubtedly are, but who knows what that win will do for their self-belief.

Even though it was scratchy, it must put them in a better place than the autumn when Scotland beat them in Llanelli. The visitors won by just four points but, like Twickenham last Saturday, the margin of victory told you little about the sheer dominance of Townsend's side. Wales conceded 16 penalties to Scotland's six and 11 of them were at the breakdown. They got dismantled in most areas.

Wales are weakened by injuries but seeking a second successive win after edging past Ireland

Backing up Twickenham win is stuff of champions

Too many in this Scotland squad have been burned too many times for them to go into this with an ounce of complacency, though. If you want to confidently predict another Scotland victory then the Welsh injury list provides fertile ground, but Townsend's players will surely not be going there.

Redpath's loss decreases their threat and increases the creative burden on Finn Russell. James Lang does not have Redpath's footballing range, not that we've seen in his five caps to date in any case. He's shown himself to be an honest, defensively-sound centre. If he has more to his game then it would be an opportune time to show it.

Maitland's absence takes away an aerial strength, one that Jonny May couldn't handle at Twickenham. Darcy Graham is a terrific finisher, brave as a lion and a whirling dervish on the wing, but Maitland caused mayhem with his kick-chase and his timing in the air last weekend.

The loss of Ritchie in the back-row is a huge pity because the Scottish three put on the type of ball-carrying, breakdown-winning show against England that took you back to when Finlay Calder, John Jeffrey and Derek White were in their pomp at Murrayfield in 1990. If Blade Thomson has Ritchie's kind of dog in him then we haven't seen it. Nor have we seen nearly enough of the stuff he's got a reputation for - footwork, broken field running, getting in behind defences and linking play. It's time for the cutting edge, Blade.

These are relative flesh wounds compared to the surgery Pivac is having to perform, though. Seven of Scotland's pack remains in place - and all seven were immense at Twickenham. Four of them - George Turner, Jonny Gray, Hamish Watson and Matt Fagerson - made French rugby magazine Midi-Olympique's team of the week, along with Hogg, Redpath and Duhan van der Merwe. Watson was selected as overall player of the round.

You could have made a compelling case for even more Scots in the team of the round. Undoubtedly, they were the biggest story and delivered the biggest performance. Backing it up is the stuff of champions. We don't know enough about their capacity to go the distance and challenge for the title, but come Saturday night we'll have a clearer picture on their progress - pretenders or the real deal at last.

For Scotland, this is partly about expectation and emotion. Can they accept the burden of favouritism and thrive on it? Can they get themselves to the same fantastic emotional pitch they got to against England? If they can, it's hard to see past them. They haven't won their opening two games of the championship in a quarter of a century. In a 12-month spell that's seen them constantly updating the record books it's yet another target to hit.

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