Six Nations: 'More torment for Scotland, but reasons to believe are there'
- Published
A second-half red card for Zander Fagerson's contributed to Scotland's downfall at Murrayfield
Scotland went to Murrayfield in a bid to rewrite some history, but in the end they only managed to add to it.
A Scott Murray red card against Wales that turned a close Six Nations Test into a comfortable Welsh victory in 2006, a Stuart Hogg red card against Wales that turned a seven-point game into a 50-point Welsh rout in 2014 - and now a third Scottish red against Wales and a defeat that was as angst-ridden as last weekend's triumph over England was joyful.
Sport, eh? Even without the noise and colour of a crowd on Saturday it was an electrifying game of rugby. With a crowd it would have been off the scale.
The clinical Scottish beginning, the thumping Welsh comeback, the lead changing hands, individual brilliance, individual calamity - and an endgame that would have played out in an ear-splitting crescendo were we living in normal times.
It had it all, but for the Scots it didn't have enough. It should have, but it didn't. That sickening feeling in the pit of the stomach of Stuart Hogg and his team was for a great opportunity lost, a shot at two-in-a-row and massive momentum going to Paris in a fortnight.
Credit Wales, their magnificent defence, their spirit in the face of freakish injury and the sheer class of Louis Rees-Zammit, but the Scots will have pulled the covers over their heads in bed last night in an attempt to block out the memory of what happened earlier in the day.
At 17-3 they were cruising. With six minutes to go in the first half they pushed on for a third try and an early kill. A 14-point lead is surmountable, a 21-point lead begins to look like Everest when you've only got 40 minutes to scale it.
That try never came, though. As they threatened, Gary Graham went off his feet and the chance was gone. Penalty Wales. Then Rory Sutherland and Matt Fagerson infringed back up the field. Penalty Wales. Then a high Scottish tackle. Penalty Wales. Then a Scottish offside. Penalty advantage Wales. In less than a handful of minutes Scotland had gone from almost scoring at one end to conceding at the other.
A nine-point lead at the break was still a handsome advantage, but that score gave Wales hope - and Scotland continued to give them hope. In the early moments of the new half they conceded two more penalties, bringing their tally to six in 10 minutes. They conceded six in 80 minutes against England last weekend.
Even still, they had a chance to get that third score - a chance wasted. More encouragement for the visitors.
Under the Welsh sticks, they blasted. Surge after surge, the try line at the end of their nose practically the whole time. These seconds were critical in the grand scheme. This was rugby psychology writ large.
Wales' resistance was outstanding. It was as if Shaun Edwards was back in the vanguard, organising the defence, making it unbreakable. The period passed when Scott Cummings ran an obstruction line as Graham went over. Wales had escaped.
Could Scotland have opted for a kick at goal? Of course, but when you think you've got your rival reeling the understandable urge is to go for the knockout. On such decisions are Tests won and lost.
'Red was not a shock call'
Credit Wales for surviving and credit Wales again for striking out a few minutes later and scoring through Liam Williams. Scotland had a two-point lead when Fagerson was red-carded. There was and will continue to be a debate around what happened there - even the officials on the day didn't seem to be wholly in agreement.
'What a key moment that could be' - Scotland's Zander Fagerson sent off
In attempting to clear out the ruck, Fagerson led with the shoulder and caught Wyn Jones on the head. It's hard to mitigate your way out of that. His arm was tucked, the equivalent of a smoking gun.
On TV duty, Sam Warburton and John Barclay - two giants from either side of Saturday's divide - thought it a harsh call. It wasn't the most grievous example of a reckless clearout - Peter O'Mahony's was worse last weekend - but the red was not a shock call.
Fagerson may miss the rest of the championship - a savage blow to a player who had real Lions potential - but if rugby really wants to deal with the sometimes horrendous consequences of shots to the head (brain injury) then it's a red card all day long. The surprise wasn't so much that Fagerson was sent off, it was that Jones wasn't taken off for a HIA.
When Jones gathered himself to put Wales in the lead we were building towards an epic Six Nations contest.
When the quite brilliant Hogg snatched that lead back again we were firmly there, a classic. Finn Russell's wonderful conversion made it a four-point game with 15 minutes to go.
Last weekend, the Welsh scored 18 of their 21 points after O'Mahony was red carded. Last season they scored 14 fast points against England when Manu Tuilagi was sent off in the 75th minute. There were six Welsh survivors from the 2014 game when Hogg walked. The chances that Wales were done for the day were remote.
Rees-Zammit put them in front with a virtuoso try down the right touchline. Scotland had conceded five tries in six Tests before Saturday. They shipped four in 70 minutes against Wales, two of them while in the red zone. The Fagerson episode cost them 10 points in a game they lost by just one.
Highlights: Wales edge out 14-man Scotland
'Scotland are down but not out'
In the head-wrecking game of what might have been, Scotland have a myriad of things to torment them.
The pain for the Scots comes with the fact that they could still have won it. They were forcing it a little too much but still they put Hogg away on a searing break. The captain lost his footing. Then Duhan van der Merwe had that heart-stopping surge at the end that would have brought a gobsmacking, game-winning score had Owen Watkin not made a sensational tap tackle.
Gregor Townsend was adamant that Scotland should have had a penalty in the seconds after Van der Merwe crashed to earth and he had a point. Chris Harris was latched on to ball at the breakdown and Wales could have been done. It would have given Scotland one last chance. It never came.
The despondency in Scotland is real and acute and from the outside there will be inevitable chat - mocking, even - about another false Scottish dawn. There is still much to admire in this team, though. They got too much wrong against the Welsh. Indiscipline was their ruination, but indiscipline is fixable. It was an aberration on the day.
They go to Paris as a wounded team and as more of a danger to the French than most of their predecessors over the past 20 years. Put Jamie Ritchie back in there and Scotland are better. Get the Twickenham-like carrying from the front-row (they were more subdued on Saturday) and Scotland are a menace.
Hope against hope that Cameron Redpath makes a faster than expected recovery from his neck injury and that Scotland midfield becomes more threatening - or put Huw Jones in there alongside Chris Harris. Get the daft penalties out of their system and there are reasons to believe.
They lost a game but they haven't lost the championship. They took a sore one, but there's a way to go. They're down just now, but they're not out.