Six Nations 2021: 'Scotland seeking to avoid familiar tale of Ireland torment'

Scotland's miserable 2019 World Cup campaign began with defeat to Ireland

For Scotland there's been a desperate familiarity about their meetings with Ireland - and we're not just talking about their 17 losses in 21 games in the Six Nations.

We're talking about flops in the World Cup in Japan and in the Nations Cup in Dublin. We're talking about the optimism going into many of the recent matches between the sides and then the crushing disappointment that followed.

In 2019, Ireland got obliterated by England in their opening game of the championship and were desperate to rid themselves of some demons in round two. Along came Scotland to provide them with a fillip. When Ireland got another horsing by England in a warm-up game ahead of the World Cup their confidence was creaking - along came Scotland again to give them an easy day in Yokohama.

Ireland's World Cup was almost as disastrous as Scotland's. Their next game - under new coach, Andy Farrell - was against, hallelujah, the Scots. Ireland found a way of winning, Stuart Hogg dropping the ball over the try line didn't half help. After an awful autumn featuring another heavy defeat to England and as grim a performance against Georgia as Ireland have put in against anybody for years, Farrell was in serious need of a victory come December when his team faced Scotland.

They won again. Four games in a row, same preamble, same outcome. And now we're on to number five and it's a similar backdrop. Take out games against Italy and Ireland have lost their last four Six Nations matches.

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In their last two they've only scored a total of two tries, both from forwards. They've had truckloads of ball but not much ambition to do a lot with it, their hosing of Italy aside. They want to ease away from the attritional, low-risk, possession-is-key game of Joe Schmidt and move towards something different, but that power game has worked repeatedly against the Scots, so what does Farrell do on Sunday? Is it another gruntathon?

That might not work so easily on Scotland these days. They're not as susceptible to bullying tactics. Scotland have been lovebombed all week in Ireland - Paul O'Connell saying this is their best team in 20 years. And the great man is right. It is.

But on the flip side, it's an Ireland team that is once more in chronic need of a win having lost against Wales and France in this championship. They beat Italy - who cares? - but if they lose on Sunday at Murrayfield they're looking at a possible fifth-place finish. They have England at home in their last game. Ireland are coming to Edinburgh with a fair amount of motivation in the tank. Fear of failure can be a very positive thing if channelled in the right way.

Russell v Sexton the focus of Lions watch

This is a Test with a compelling landscape, not just in terms of what it might mean to the Six Nations table but also what it might mean to the Lions. At a guess, 11 of Scotland's starting 15 on Sunday reside somewhere on Warren Gatland's long list of certainties, possibilities and bolters.

That's a gamut that takes you from Stuart Hogg to Matt Fagerson. The number eight won't make the cut - the competition is too severe - but in Scotland's two games so far he's been consistently excellent. Only Hogg and Elliot Daly carried more ball than Fagerson at Twickenham in round one and only Hogg, Duhan van der Merwe, Chris Harris and Taulupe Faletau carried more at Murrayfield.

Finn Russell commands so much attention that it can blind you to some of the less glamorous players who are pulling up trees right now. Fagerson is one, Scott Cummings another. Chris Harris, too. Sean Maitland is back in the team after missing the Wales game through injury. Maitland's body of work against England was exceptional, particularly in the air. Ireland will drop bombs on Scotland but they'll probably avoid Maitland and head straight for Hogg in hope of vulnerability from a player who is flying.

Lions watch will focus mostly on Russell versus Johnny Sexton. The narrative around Russell at Twickenham was odd. There was widespread talk of a "masterclass" when, actually, it was an error-ridden show from the fly-half. Russell has yet to catch fire in the Six Nations. Against Wales he did some beautiful things and some damaging things. He remains a joy to behold, but Scotland could do with the full package for 80 minutes against Ireland, not just a fleeting glimpse of it.

Russell is not Gatland's type of 10, but this is a glorious chance to show the Lions coach he can be trusted to marry his wondrous creativity with the kind of game management that Gatland wants from his fly-half. If he does it against Sexton - the archetypal Gatland 10 - then Russell puts to bed a lot of arguments. He's zero from four in Tests against Sexton.

Finn Russell (right) has been on the losing against against Johnny Sexton in all four previous meetings

Can Scotland feed off their anger and frustration?

By rights, Scotland should be going for a Triple Crown. Even a month after the event the wastefulness of their defeat to Wales in round two is hard to get your head around. The catalogue of self-inflicted wounds remain astounding, their insistence on loading the revolver and repeatedly firing it into their own feet still a source of disbelief.

The piece-de-resistance of a thrilling but ridiculously grim day for Gregor Townsend's team was the fact that despite conceding six penalties in a row, and valuable points, in the 10 minutes either side of half-time and despite wasting point-scoring opportunities themselves and despite, again, the red card for Zander Fagerson 53 minutes into it, Scotland should have won.

Scotland spent seven-and-a-half minutes attacking Wales in their 22; Wales spent a minute-and-a-half attacking Scotland in theirs. Scotland missed six tackles, Wales missed 27. Scotland had 62% possession and 68% territory. Six of the top eight ball carriers on the day were Scottish. The top five tacklers were Welsh.

Townsend's team are making more line breaks than their opposition, they're spending more time in the opposition 22, but their points return per visit needs addressing. They had a return of two points per visit against Wales. The Welsh had a return of four points per visit. Scotland need to be more efficient in getting the scoreboard ticking.

So, a wasted opportunity with bells on. Can they use the frustration, though? Can they feed off the anger that many of them felt about Zander Fagerson's ban - as opposed to Peter O'Mahony's ban or no ban at all for Liam Williams, who could have walked at Murrayfield for a straight arm to James Lang's jaw?

They'll miss Fagerson's carrying, but the upside is Jamie Ritchie is fit and the back-row that dominated England so thoroughly is restored. Maitland's return is also good news given the aerial battle that's coming. Cam Redpath's continuing absence is a sore one, but Sam Johnson is a big upgrade on Lang in an attacking sense. Harris-Johnson gives you so much more than Harris-Lang. Johnson at his best is a terrific threat.

Behind him, Hogg is in serious form. Outside him, Duhan van der Merwe is a running machine. At half-back, Scotland are exhilarating at best and infuriating at worst. They're rarely dull to watch.

Let's hope there's no red card to disfigure the contest because it could be special. People who have regularly backed Scotland to beat Ireland have been living an impoverished life of bread and water for years now. If you were down to your last fiver you'd have to put it on an away win given everything that's gone before.

You'd be doing it hesitantly, though. O'Connell was spot on when praising this Scotland team, but this is the game - hopefully a fair fight, 15 versus 15 - that will tell us whether Twickenham was just a great day out or a new dawn. Rugby doesn't get much more intoxicating than this.