Six Nations 2022: Scotland going backwards & to say otherwise is delusional
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Six Nations 2022 highlights: Ireland beat Scotland to win Triple Crown
Two years ago in Dublin, Ireland were put to the pin of their collar by the visiting Scots and won an extremely tight Six Nations game by a single score.
Last year, in Edinburgh, the game went to the wire again, Ireland landing the decisive blow in the 77th minute. Come full-time, only three points separated the sides.
On Saturday at the Aviva the thing was gone in 60 minutes, when Josh van der Flier scored Ireland's third try to widen the gap to 16 points once Jonny Sexton banged over the extras. The hosts were nowhere near their best, but they still cantered to a 21-point victory.
It's a reflection of where Scotland are that during a series of press conferences - that could legitimately be called cringe-making and truculent - coach Gregor Townsend and captain - for now - Stuart Hogg, spoke of it being "arguably our best performance of the championship" and "a fairly good performance that we're proud of".
The testiness of those Zooms came on the back of questioning about the rule-breaking behaviour of six Scotland players last week - and what it all said about the authority of, and the respect for, Townsend and his coaching staff.
Townsend and Hogg tried to wrestle the interviews to rugby - as if that was smooth terrain - but the chat repeatedly returned to Dublin and the players going rogue. "On to the next question, please…" said Townsend, forlornly. It was a tough watch.
Townsend said his players tried to show the supporters "where we are as a team and I felt we did that with the effort we put in".
That's how much Scotland have slipped - the players are being praised for effort. It was like a comment from the bleakest moments of the past 20 years when the boys tried their hearts out, but lost by a cricket score against a team in third gear.
Some context here. Scotland won three games in each of the Six Nations of 2020 and 2021 but only two this time - and didn't play particularly well in either of them. In 2020 they conceded just five tries, in 2021 it was 10 and in 2022 it was 15. Scotland's penalty count across the five games has gone from 45 to 54 to 61 in those years.
They've gone from winning away in Wales, winning home and away against France and England, and running Ireland close on two straight occasions to taking solace from trying hard in adversity that they helped create for themselves in the first place.
The progress of the past two seasons got halted in Cardiff and has been shunted backwards ever since. To say otherwise is delusional, which is the word - among others - that sprang to mind when listening to the reaction of the coach and the captain post-Ireland.
Ritchie or Watson to replace Hogg as captain?
Hamish Watson has been one of Scotland's most consistent performers
Hogg, in particular, was surly on Saturday night. It was like he objected to being the one - as captain - to have to face the music, while Finn Russell - now a two-time offender and a colossal let-down, Ali Price, Sione Tuipulotu, Darcy Graham and Sam Johnson were allowed to avoid a grilling. "As leader of this side… I was disappointed and frustrated," said Hogg of his own behaviour. Leader?
The concept of leadership needs a very hard recalibration over the next few months. Scottish Rugby, caught on the hop when BBC Scotland broke this story on Friday, may currently be discussing the consequences of all of this. Would it be a surprise if one of the conclusions was that a new leader was required?
Hogg should consider announcing he's standing down, rather than have somebody else do it for him. Either way, it's hard to imagine him captaining this team. Can he stand in front of the rest of the squad and talk about standards when he, himself, has fallen so short?
If Jamie Ritchie is fit and, well ahead of the summer tour to Argentina and a fourth game in South America soon to be added to the schedule, then he looks the obvious candidate for any changing of the guard. If not Ritchie, then Grant Gilchrist or Hamish Watson. Hugely committed guys with no obvious ego.
There was a compelling argument for Townsend making a stand against all six players and binning the lot of them from the Ireland game. A smart play here would have been for Townsend and Scottish Rugby to announce it early last week in the knowledge that this story was going to come out at some point.
He, and Scottish Rugby, could have got ahead of it, could have got the hubbub done early in the week. It would have been out of the way before they set foot on the plane to Dublin.
Had Townsend announced all six were sent home then he would have come across as a strong leader. It would have made defeat at the Aviva all the more certain - and probably all the more gruesome - but the narrative of the story would have been that of a forceful coach not prepared to tolerate nonsense from senior players.
Townsend suggested he'd thought about that scenario, but went against it. Instead the tactic was to say nothing, keep it in the squad and hope that no story would emerge about six of his players going into a heaving spot on the busiest street in Edinburgh on a Saturday night. That kind of judgement, along with the professionalism of the players involved, was badly askew.
Townsend at a crossroads
The only surprise is not that the story emerged, but that it took so long to emerge.
Hogg and others like to talk about the good culture in the squad. Unquestionably, there are loads of terrific pros in that group - those are the ones you feel sorry for. They've been badly let down by the six - and by the management who took little or no action against them.
Perhaps Hogg will be rested for the summer tour and somebody else will be appointed to the role and that will be the succession done without a fanfare.
Townsend, of course, has been badly damaged by all this. The momentum he had as coach has now gone. The disquiet in the camp he had helped resolve has now returned. His discretion is admirable, but it has put him in a situation whereby he's now, in part, taking responsibility for the actions of some of his players.
Stuart Hogg and Finn Russell have come under fire in the last week
There's not been a peep from Russell and not a solitary word uttered in explanation by any of the other four. Russell is one of the team's totems, but his form, conditioning, energy levels and work-rate are a mile off where they need to be.
And, just when his last shot at redemption in this Six Nations presents itself, he breaks management orders and hits the town. Russell has been love-bombed by various cheerleaders for too long. He needs to engage with some harsh reality and some humility wouldn't go amiss. That goes for all six of them.
It's hard to know what Townsend is thinking, but he's at a crossroads with this project. Two years of growth and now a major regression and rancour in the squad. He baulked at some questions on Saturday and Sunday, but it would be a shock if he wasn't asking some of the same questions of himself in the privacy of his own place.
It's look-in-the-mirror time for him, his captain, his chief playmaker and the other players who behaved like amateurs last week.
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