Six Nations 2023: Scotland v Ireland analysis

Without wanting to create a hostage to fortune situation, the likelihood is that next weekend Scotland will secure a bonus-point win over Italy at Murrayfield to earn themselves a third-placed finish in the Six Nations.

No disrespect to the improving Azzurri, but that's what will be expected of Gregor Townsend's players, even if one or two stars are missing, which they will be as things stand.

Had Scotland been offered third in the table at the start of the championship then it would have been accepted with glee. A dramatic win and some tries for the ages against England, an unmerciful hiding of the Welsh and an hour of terrific rugby in adversity in Paris followed. If there's a five-pointer against Italy to add then that's a season of undoubted progress.

What's refusing to improve, though, is their record against Ireland. This is now Scotland's longest-running horror movie in the Six Nations. With each passing year, Ireland find new ways to torment the Scots, be it landslide wins in Dublin and Yokohama or close-run thrillers in Edinburgh.

Sunday was their eighth straight victory over Scotland, so nothing new there in one sense. But in another, this was a whole new genre of suffering.

• 'Forty-minute performance not enough' - Townsend

• Scotland overwhelmed by Ireland

• Reaction to Ireland's win at Murrayfield

There was the hope going into it. Ireland's average winning margin over Scotland in recent times has been 14 points and here, with all the bells and whistles in Scotland's attack, the margin was 15. In the seven losses before Sunday, Ireland outscored Scotland by an average of three tries to one and three tries to one it was again on Sunday.

The new twist was Ireland's freakish run of injuries on the day and the tantalising feeling early in the second half that this was a glorious opportunity in play.

Andy Farrell's team had lost four of his pack to injury by then. They had a 35-year-old prop playing hooker and a world player of the year flanker throwing into the lineout. Ireland's casualty list was so bad, said Farrell, it was funny. His players were actually laughing in the dressing room at half-time such was the chaos unfolding around them.

The opening 40 minutes at Murrayfield had been engrossing. Not high scoring, but high class. Ireland led 8-7, but they had problems. You do not get to be world number one if you cannot problem solve on the hoof, though.

In the 48th minute, de facto lineout thrower Josh van der Flier launched one over the top and into Scottish hands. These would have been worrying moments for the Irish players if they were not so darn composed, so unbelievably together in the maelstrom.

Ireland suffered badly through injury against France in round two as well but sailed on merrily to victory nonetheless. They are impossibly well drilled, supremely confident in their ability to overcome any mishap and utterly ruthless in exposing a team with jitters. And what's they saw in Scotland when the game went down the stretch.

You can call it nous. Ireland had it and Scotland did not have enough of it. Eight minutes into the second half, in the shadow of the east stand, Stuart Hogg got into bother. Mack Hansen went for the jackal turnover. Zander Fagerson, with a fair old weight advantage, had a chance to blow Hansen away, but missed the target. Penalty Ireland.

Arriving on the scene, Jamie Ritchie gave some lip to referee Luke Pearce. "You can't question decisions in my face like that, Jamie," he said. Then he marched Scotland back 10m, which was the second time back-chat cost them 10m on Sunday and the third time in a week.

It happened in Paris, too. That was Ritchie again. He's a superb warrior but learning how to deal with referees is something he needs to wise up to - and quickly.

Fifty minutes had been played and it was still 8-7 to Ireland. Townsend was frustrated in the aftermath that his team could not put sustained pressure on Van der Flier's lineout throwing until it was too late. He had good reason to be annoyed. Van der Flier's throw should have been attacked remorselessly, but it was not.

This was the slow unravelling of Scotland's hopes in the face of steely belief down the other end. Ireland's squad depth and versatility is the scariest it's ever been. With Cian Healy hooking, they won a scrum penalty and everything changed from there.

Jamison Gibson-Park, on the field barely a minute, soon put up a Garryowen that Hansen jumped for and which Duhan van der Merwe did not. Guess who won? Not long after, Gibson-Park, lighting the place up with his energy, floated a pass out to James Lowe to score.

They will say it was not so, but Scotland did not look like a team that thought they could come back from there. Ireland have inflicted some amount of psychological damage on them in recent years and they gave the appearance of players who knew the game was up.

Not that they stopped trying, but maybe they stopped believing. Scotland scored in the 17th minute and did not score again. Few sides could keep this Scotland attack pointless for more than an hour, but Ireland get in the heads of the Scots the way few other sides do.

Starving opponents of points for long periods is what Ireland do. France scored six points in the last 62 minutes at the Aviva Stadium. South Africa scored six points in 66 minutes in the autumn. It took Australia 55 minutes to register a score. In the second Test in New Zealand in the summer, New Zealand went scoreless for 40 minutes. In the third and decisive Test, they managed three points in 42 minutes.

To borrow a line from Muhammad Ali, Ireland's defence is so mean it makes medicine sick. And the attack is clinical. Jack Conan's try just after the hour mark put it beyond any doubt.

With 15 minutes left Scotland had an attacking lineout and made a mess of it. It was their fourth misfire out of touch. Ruinous errors. They were broken men at that point.

They are out of the equation as championship contenders but still have a notable finish to play for next Saturday. It would be only the second time in a decade Scotland have finished third.

This is a good Scotland side but, in the savagely harsh terrain where the big beasts roam, not yet good enough.

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