What Scotland must do to end misery against Ireland

Scotland must match Ireland's aggression and intensity for 80 minutes

Guinness Six Nations: Scotland v Ireland

When: Sunday, 9 February Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh Kick-off: 15:00 GMT.

Coverage: Watch on BBC One, iPlayer & BBC Sport website, listen on BBC Sounds

Scotland coach Gregor Townsend was asked after his side's opening-weekend victory against Italy how he hoped to beat Six Nations champions Ireland eight days later at Murrayfield.

"By scoring more points than them," he replied.

His brevity was understandable. Having lost this fixture 10 times in a row, a proper analysis of the things Scotland must - and must not do - against their bogey team requires more than one answer shortly after the end of a different game.

So, how can Scotland end their miserable recent record against Ireland? What does the grim history tell us about how they can get it done?

Gift no presents

In Dublin last year, Ireland got off to a shaky start. In the opening minutes they gave away a penalty, a free-kick, got charged down and turned over. Finn Russell made it 3-0. An encouraging beginning.

Then Scotland messed up. They had a lineout close to their own line and threw it to Dan Sheehan, who went over. That game was a proper physical battle, with a four-point gap at the end. Scotland gave Ireland a free seven to Sheehan.

'Cheap points' is a term used by successive Scotland captains against Ireland. Over the 10 defeats, this kind of wounding error is a theme.

In 2022, while trailing 14-5, Stuart Hogg got greedy when going for the corner while Sam Johnson was free inside. Hugo Keenan put him into touch. A certain try was gone.

The piece-de-resistance of calamities came in 2020, when Hogg dropped the ball going over the Ireland line in Dublin. That was in the 50th minute. A converted try would have brought the score level at 13-13. And Scotland would have had momentum.

Tony Ward, the former Ireland fly-half working for RTE, said the Scots were the better team that day.

In 2019 Scotland started quickly at Murrayfield only to concede via a cock-up between Tommy Seymour and Sean Maitland.

The year before that, Peter Horne gave away an easy seven points early in Dublin when his pass was intercepted. Scotland butchered multiple chances that day, every error proving grist to Ireland's mill.

Every team makes mistakes but Scotland's mistakes in this fixture tend to be absolute whoppers. That has to stop.

Scotland cannot afford any repeat of the profligacy Stuart Hogg showed in 2020

Stay in the fight

Scotland have had a tendency to be blown away in short order, shipping a lot of points without reply. At the 2023 World Cup they were 36-0 down within an hour. Lights out.

In the 2023 Six Nations they were leading 7-3 after 17 minutes before conceding 19 unanswered points. In 2022 they were 14-0 down inside half an hour. In the Nations Cup in 2020 they conceded 19 unanswered points in 12 minutes.

At the 2019 World Cup they trailed 19-3 before the half hour. In 2018 Ireland led 21-3 after 46 minutes.

Giving Ireland big leads is ruinous to your health. The biggest points advantage Scotland have had in any game in the past 10 was six. Building some scoreboard pressure might be an idea for Sunday.

Beware third-quarter dip

This isn't exclusive to Scotland's games against Ireland, but it's certainly been a feature of them.

In the third quarter in the World Cup in 2023, Ireland prevailed 10-0. The year before it was 14-0, the year before that 7-0. It was 10-5 Ireland in 2021, 14-7 Ireland in 2020, 7-0 Ireland at the 2019 World Cup and 7-0 Ireland in the 2019 Six Nations.

This goes back to staying in the fight, which brings us to the next point.

Aggression for 80 minutes

Scotland's aggression and intensity was top notch in Dublin a year ago, but most of their physicality was reserved for staying alive - Zander Fagerson, Andy Onyeama-Christie and Cameron Redpath made three try-saving tackles - rather than pounding on Ireland's door.

Lack of sustained aggression has been a key part of why Scotland are on this hideous run against Ireland.

Scotland had the power of a wet paper bag in their pummelling at the World Cup in 2023. Their lack of edge was mortifying. Time and again in these games we have seen Ireland slowly ratcheting up the intensity and Scotland's level slowly dropping off.

Recent signs are encouraging. Scotland lived with the Springboks for long periods of their autumn contest and were on top of them physically until the 'Bomb Squad' appeared.

Peter O'Mahony talks about rugby being "borderline warfare". For 80 minutes on Sunday - not 40 or 50 - that's how it will have to be.

Scotland have finishing power in Duhan van der Merwe

Be clinical

There are so many Scottish tales of woe against Ireland in attack.

This is a gifted and try-laden Scottish backline. The back three of Blair Kinghorn, Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe have 63 Test tries between them and Huw Jones has another 22. With Russell directing things, it's a lethal force. Except, for the most part, against Ireland.

Ireland's defence has been on top more often than not. Add in Scotland's profligacy - and self-harming lack of accuracy at times - then you have Scotland's points average at 11.5 across the 10 defeats.

Nowhere good enough. Ireland's average is 25.

Scotland's dangermen must wreak havoc.

On-field leadership

Ireland had a tough time against England last Saturday. Their breakdown was in bother in the face of a furious 40 minutes from the visitors and their error count was high. But they fixed it.

And that is one of Ireland's greatest strengths - they have the nous to think their way through bad moments.

Sunday is a day for leaders who can steer Scotland through choppy waters. All of Scotland's go-to men have to step up, particularly when things are at their most challenging.

What else? They need to attack Ireland's lineout, which was a worry for them coming into this championship. England, bizarrely, never really went after it.

They need to get Ireland trying to play catch-up. Putting them under pressure is paramount. And they need a break or two. Soft points for rather than against. Some big calls going their way. A crowd engaged and raucous from the start.

All of that and the jinx might end. Might.