HS2: Has the government broken its promises over high-speed rail?
- Published
Construction on the HS2 route between London and Birmingham has already started
As part of its Integrated Rail Plan, the government has scrapped most of the eastern leg of HS2 as well as plans for a new high-speed line between Leeds and Manchester.
Despite this, the government insists that its new rail plan will transform services in the Midlands and northern England, with quicker improvements in speed and capacity.
What did the government previously pledge on the Leeds to Manchester line?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said it was "total rubbish" that he had broken promises on delivering a Leeds to Manchester line.
In 2019, external, Mr Johnson reaffirmed in a speech that he wanted to deliver Northern Powerhouse Rail: "I want to be the prime minister who does with Northern Powerhouse Rail what we did for Crossrail in London.
"And today I am going to deliver on my commitment to that vision with a pledge to fund the Leeds to Manchester route."
The government insists it still delivering Northern Powerhouse Rail due to the additional investment. This will be spent, it says, on upgrading existing routes which will cut journey times and increase capacity much sooner than the previous plans.
What did the government previously say about the eastern leg of HS2?
In February 2020, while confirming that HS2 would go ahead, Mr Johnson appeared to hint to MPs that there could be alterations.
He said that "something has to change" as the HS2 plan at the time would effectively condemn the North "to get nothing for 20 years".
"The question is how we can bring a transport revolution to the North sooner," he added.
However, in February this year, external, Mr Johnson told MPs the project was going ahead: "I can certainly confirm that we are going to develop the eastern leg as well as the whole of the HS2."
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps was also committed to the project six months ago.
"We are going to complete HS2 and include HS2 on the eastern leg to Leeds," he told an event run by the Policy Exchange think tank.
Grant Shapps announced the government's rail plans on Thursday
Will journey times be faster?
After the new plan was announced, Boris Johnson said: "In virtually every station along the line it's either faster or the same."
The report lists 28 routes, external with their new journey times and the journey times that would have been achieved under the old proposals.
Of those routes:
Five have faster journey times under the new plan
Four have the same times
Nineteen have worse times
Of those 19, five are within 10% so could be described as "similar".
Is it 'new' money?
The Northern Powerhouse Partnership, a business pressure group chaired by former chancellor George Osborne, has been looking at the £96bn rail investment announced by the government.
It estimates the full HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail projects, as previously planned, would have ended up costing about £36bn more than the programme set out on Thursday.
A big contribution to the savings will come from the difference in cost between the scrapped eastern leg of HS2 to Leeds and the proposed new lines and upgrades proposed for the area. Cheaper options on Northern Powerhouse Rail make up much of the rest.
But estimates of costs of big rail projects are notoriously unreliable. When HS2 was first announced, the whole thing was only supposed to cost about £33bn.
Nonetheless, some might argue it's hard to describe any of the £96bn as new money if it's a result of scrapping some rail projects and spending the money on alternatives.
In response, the Department for Transport suggested the figures could not be compared because the government was not committed to all of the previous projects in the way that it now has committed to the £96bn.
It also stressed that the previous plans would have drained money away from other services.
Bridget Rosewell from the National Infrastructure Commission told BBC News that going ahead with all the rail project proposals would have cost almost twice as much as the government is spending.
She said her organisation had set out some options for these projects and that "the government has gone for one of the lower ones".
How much money has been wasted?
Some work has already been done on the stretch of HS2 that has been cancelled.
The rail consultant Michael Byng estimates that the work done on that stretch so far will have cost about £61m. That is a combination of construction costs, project and design team costs and unforeseen expenses.
Higher figures have been reported for this, especially for the cost of buying up property along the eastern leg.
But those figures are inflated partly because not all of that stretch has been cancelled and partly because the property bought can be sold again, which should recoup some of the costs.
