Have budget worries constrained John Swinney's ambitions?

John Swinney has had quite a journey in his four months as first minister

A row about kicking free school meals for primary school pupils into the long grass cannot be the maiden programme for government that John Swinney dreamed of setting out.

In the few months since he achieved Scotland’s highest office, the first minister has presided over a damaging electoral reverse for the SNP and £500m of cuts to public services which overshadowed his legislative plans.

Where does it leave Mr Swinney’s leadership, and what does it mean for the coming years at Holyrood?

The programme John Swinney announced on Wednesday was all about the art of the possible, of keeping the government’s head above the water, of salvaging existing promises and programmes rather than proposing big new ones.

In fairness, the first minister was clear from the outset about the constraints he faces.

There's the politics; the SNP is a minority administration with precious little goodwill to trade on.

The Greens are smarting after being kicked out of government and seeing some of their favourite policies shredded in the budget cuts.

Labour scent blood and are more interested in ousting the SNP than helping them out.

And a new Tory leader is never going to do the deals that Annabelle Goldie did.

Frankly it’s not even clear at this point how Mr Swinney will get a budget through parliament.

He has done plenty of these negotiations in the past but he may need all of his experience just to persuade a handful of opposition members to abstain.

Some at Holyrood are even whispering about the frankly dizzying prospect of a snap election.

Shona Robison said she was forced to make £500m of cuts this year alone

But really, the key constraint is financial. It would be easy to find political partners if their favoured projects could be funded.

The immediate figures are stark. The public sector pay bill has gone up £800m this year alone. And pay is a recurring cost which knocks on into every subsequent year - future budgets only get harder.

For context, Shona Robison could eliminate the Scottish Fire and Rescue service entirely, just trust people to put out their own fires, and it wouldn’t plug half of that £800m gap.

It’s a symptom of the direction of travel of devolution ever since the SNP took office.

The party has always been enamoured of a big state. Literally, when you consider we have a larger public service workforce; ministers have been proud to boast of having more teachers and doctors per head of population, and of paying - or “valuing” - them more.

The same has been true in policy terms since Alex Salmond the Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition in 2007.

The big projects have almost always been about state intervention, from scrapping bridge tolls and prescription fees to free university tuition.

Possibly the main legacy of Nicola Sturgeon’s time in office is Social Security Scotland, designed as a more generous welfare system, with widely lauded new benefits like the Scottish Child Payment.

It is this “social contract” which ministers use to justify higher income tax rates; some Scots may pay more tax, but think of everything they get back in return.

Many of these policies are good things, of course. They’re politically hard to argue against. There has been no debate about generous public pay settlements and no party has been bold enough to suggest reimposing tuition or prescription fees.

But money is clearly running perilously tight and Ms Robison has warned that she can only do so much via the tax system as it stands.

The outlay on social security is more than a billion pounds above the level of grant provided by Westminster, equivalent to services south of the border.

By 2028-29 the gap is projected to hit £1.5bn. That’s roughly how much the government currently spends on the police service.

Relations with the UK government have thawed a little, but tension over budgets remain

Yes, nobody can deny that funding sections at Westminster have a huge impact, and Rachel Reeves has hardly been a ray of sunshine since she became chancellor.

Further constraint seems to be on the cards and this Labour administration does not see to be gearing up for big state interventions which would funnel more money to the devolved administrations.

That clearly has an impact, and it’s fair to also note the impact of external factors ranging from Brexit to Covid and the war in Ukraine.

But Scottish government decisions have created a system which is moving inexorably in one direction, as the public finances have begun to drift in the other.

A crunch has to come and we are only now on the precipice of it.

That’s why there’s been so much talk about “difficult choices”.

The turbulent times since Nicola Sturgeon left office have essentially been about picking out which past pledges will be delivered on.

Humza Yousaf’s brief spell in charge was characterised by binning a series of more controversial policies, from highly protected marine areas to the defence of gender reform legislation.

The Deposit Return Scheme was recycled, and the National Care Service has withered from a sweeping revamp to a central management board.

Mr Swinney meanwhile has felt compelled to scrap universal winter fuel payments - mirroring a UK government move - and kick universal provision of free school meals to all primary six and seven pupils off into an unspecified future year.

There are still some big reforms working through the Holyrood system

So what is left?

In fairness, there are still some big reforms under way in Scotland.

Changes to the justice system are working their way through parliament, which could range from scrapping the Not Proven verdict to holding rape trials without juries.

That legislation could eat up some political capital in itself, with contention over the latter proposal in particular.

Long-awaited education reforms are on the cusp of bearing fruit too, with the Scottish Qualifications Agency being replaced with a new body after a series of reviews.

But among the 14 bills announced in Mr Swinney’s programme, there are none which look like a flagship.

Indeed several are hangovers from Mr Yousaf - like the Misogyny Bill, which would create new criminal offences to protect women.

Swinneyism, if there is such a thing, seems to be about tightening up existing systems rather than launching grand new ones.

The former finance secretary knows how to work within a budget, and frankly all of it is taken up by delivering on the government’s past promises.

So Mr Swinney’s bid to eradicate child poverty rests on making sure existing services join up and work efficiently together - like bringing together childcare, family support, and wider advice on careers and benefits into one cohesive safety net.

It’s hard to see how this will spark a sudden turnaround, when £450m invested in the Scottish Child Payment has seen the poverty figures remain static at best.

Perhaps the biggest way of changing that would be a broader upturn in economic fortunes.

Hence the measures to boost growth, support businesses, attract investment and improve planning systems.

The government also still hopes to enact public service reforms which would get the workforce back to pre-Covid levels.

So there is plenty that can be done without passing fresh legislation, or enacting expensive new measures.

It’s just that Mr Swinney would far rather have had the political and economic capital to have the option of doing so.