Gloucester: Is this Gloucestershire’s key election seat?

Gloucester is a political weather vane for the county

Home of the Cherry and Whites rugby team, birthplace of Sir Chris Whitty, and producer of hard cheese – Gloucester plays an important part in the race to number 10.

Since 1979 the seat has been a bellwether, which means it has always elected an MP of the same party as the government.

This makes it an important political weather vane in the county, and one to watch closely come July 4.

The constituency

Gloucester is the county’s only city and is densely populated. As such the constituency boundaries tightly hug the city centre and include areas such as Tredworth, Matson and Kingsholm.

The seat has been held by the Conservatives since 2010, but it has swung between Labour and the Tories since the 1970s.

In the most recent 2019 general election the Conservatives had a healthy majority of more than 10,000, with Labour coming second.

However, Labour is looking to reverse this on July 4 and hoping to channel the spirit of 1997, when it last gained an MP for Gloucester.

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In fact, Gloucester was the location chosen by former Labour Prime Minister, Tony Blair, to launch the New Labour election campaign 27 years ago.

But it is not a two-party race by any means.

The Liberal Democrats are hoping to increase their share of the votes, and the party is riding high after a successful local election campaign in May. For the first time in more than two decades it became the largest party on Gloucester City Council, ousting the Conservatives.

Reform UK is also aiming to take votes from the Tories in the seat, and the Green Party is hoping to attract voters to the left.

The Socialist Labour Party, Workers Party and an independent candidate are also standing in the seat.

Gloucester's bi-annual Tall Ships Festival at Gloucester Docks

The biggest issues

Gloucester has nine neighbourhoods ranked in the top 10% of most deprived in the UK, and as such the cost of living is a big issue for voters. According to Trussell Trust data, the city saw a 18.7% increase in demand at its foodbank in the last financial year, with more than 6,000 emergency parcels delivered to local children.

Like many others, Gloucester has limited housing stock and dwindling space for new developments. Both of these combined mean it can be tricky for people to rent or buy homes, with the average house price reaching £255,000 in the last financial year, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The city is home to the county’s largest hospital, Gloucestershire Royal, and since the pandemic it has experienced issues with long wait times for ambulances outside its A&E department. This is in part due to bed blocking and difficulties getting patients out of hospital in to social care.

Gloucester has also seen a number of serious and fatal knife attacks in recent years, with city centre crime and county lines gangs all listed as targets by Gloucestershire Police.

The candidates

• Akhlaque Ahmed - Socialist Labour Party

• Chris Farmer - Reform UK

• Steve Gower - Workers Party of Britain

• Richard Graham - Conservative

• Alex McIntyre - Labour

• Fred Ramsey - Independent

• Adam Shearing - Green

• Rebecca Trimnell - Liberal Democrats